Top 10 NFL Fantasy Football Rookies

By Matt Mills on Friday, May 3rd 2013
Top 10 NFL Fantasy Football Rookies

When it comes to NFL rookies, it's extremely tough to predict just what kind of production you're going to get from them on a week-to-week basis.  When you're trying to predict that before the first week in May is even half over, at times it can be next to impossible.  With the majority of rookies fighting for jobs, roster spots and, for a select few, playing time, the next month or two will be extremely important for them.

I'm sure this will change as we get closer to the end of OTA's and mini-camps, but here are my Top 10 NFL Fantasy Football Rookies heading in to the 2013-'14 NFL season as it relates to standard-scoring fantasy football leagues:

 

10. Giovani Bernard, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals

It's no secret that Cincinnati has been less than pleased with the production that BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott gave them last season.  The club is making no bones about that as evident by them drafting two running backs in last week's NFL Draft.  While I don't expect Giovani Bernard to win the starting role to open week one, I would be surprised if he wasn't the team's primary third-down back to start the season with room to increase that role.

 

9. Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings 

Despite only playing one season in Tennessee after transferring from Hutchinson Community College, Cordarrelle Patterson's potential is nearly unlimited.  Patterson was a deep threat in college, averaging just under 17 yards per catch, and if he looks to continue that success in Minnesota, he certainly has a few things on his side.  Not only is he going to play opposite a proven pass-catcher in Greg Jennings, he will have the benefit of facing a lot of single-coverage packages with teams worrying about packing the box to stop the league's leading rusher in 2012, Adrian Peterson.

Aside from being a deep threat, Patterson is no stranger to lining up all over the field.  At Tennessee, he ran the ball 25 times for over 300 yards and three touchdowns.  I don't expect him to contribute much in that aspect, he may be able to fill just a little bit of the hole that was lost in Percy Harvin's versatility.  The biggest question mark for Patterson (and the Vikings as a whole) is whether or not Christian Ponder has what it takes to be a legitimate starting quarterback in this league.

 

8. Justin Hunter, Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans 

With as much attention as his college teammate, Patterson, got, it's probably a little bit surprising to see Justin Hunter ahead of him on this list.  Hunter is a much-more proven player, having more receptions (73), yards (1,083) and touchdowns (9) than Patterson.  Tennessee's quarterback play hasn't been the most consistent, but things are lining up very nicely for Jake Locker to have somewhat of a breakout year.  Right now, Hunter is slated to be the team's slot receiver, but with Kenny Britt (and his never-ending legal troubles) being the team's number one receiver heading in to camp, his role with the team may increase at any moment.

 

7. Aaron Dobson, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots

There's no denying that Aaron Dobson has had a wildly inconsistent collegiate career, scoring as many touchdowns his junior season (12) as he did his other three years at Marshall--combined.  That said, his receiving yardage was within 20 yards of either other over his last three seasons.  The biggest upside Dobson has is the fact that he is going to be catching passes from Tom Brady, and despite having yet to even step on a practice field for the team, he's probably already penciled in as the team's second receiver (albeit their fourth-best option in the passing game).

 

6. Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Cincinnati Bengals

With Jermaine Gresham already on the team, you could certainly make a case that Cincinnati could have addressed more pressing areas of need with this pick.  That said, there's no denying that Tyler Eifert is a huge talent and will likely be a top tight end in the league for a long time.  While it remains unclear exactly what kind of role Eifert will have come week one, I have him at number six on this list based solely on his potential.  If the team gives any indication that they're going to bring him along slowly and go with Gresham as the team's main target at tight end, expect to see Eifert's stock drop as far as rookies who will have an impact in fantasy football are concerned (though it's unlikely he'll ever be outside of the top 15).

 

5. Eddie Lacy, Running Back, Green Bay Packers

There's no doubt that Eddie Lacy is going to get his chance to be Green Bay's starting running back.  In fact, I would be shocked if Lacy isn't their starter from day one, as there isn't much competition from anyone other than Johnathahn Franklin, a fourth-round rookie out of UCLA.  That said, Aaron Rodgers has never really had a tail back who was capable of producing much, and as a result, Green Bay's offense has been adjusted to reflect that.  Having a running game can take a big burden off of the quarterback, but I'm not going to be convinced that Green Bay is going to run the ball until I actually see them do it.

 

4. Tavon Austin, Wide Receiver, St. Louis Rams 

If you want Tavon Austin, I can almost guarantee that you're going to have to draft him higher than almost any other rookie based solely off his hype coming off of the NFL Draft process, his high amount of potential and the obvious fact that most people draft fantasy players based off of their name rather than their numbers.  If you don't believe me, stay tuned for some statistical comparisons from two unnamed players coming next week.

Being under six feet and 'small', as far as NFL players are concerned, it was inevitable that people were going to compare him to Percy Harvin.  If you're expecting anywhere close to the output Harvin generates, you're going to be severely disappointed.  That said, Austin is on a team without many other options when it comes to the passing game, so he is going to get his chance to produce from week one.

 

3. DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Houston Texans 

I know I'm likely going to be alone on this, but as far as I'm concerned, DeAndre Hopkins is going to have the biggest rookie fantasy season of any rookie wide receiver, despite being drafted almost 20 picks after West Virginia's Tavon Austin.  Not only is Hopkins in a much better offense than Austin, his quarterback is far superior and he is going to be lining up opposite Andre Johnson, one of the league's best receivers.

 

2. Montee Ball, Running Back, Denver Broncos 

I'm sure there are numerous reasons that Denver decided to draft Wisconsin's Montee Ball in the second round last Friday.  After all, he holds FIVE NCAA records--as well as several Big 10 and Wisconsin records.  Among them are the most touchdowns in a season with 39 (2011), most points scored by a non-kicker (236), the most rushing touchdowns (77) and the most overall touchdowns (83).

Ball still has to prove that he has what it takes to lead Denver's backfield, but at this point, it would surprise most everyone if Ball isn't Denver's starting running back to open the season.  It's true that Denver primarily has a passing attack, but something that not a lot of people realize is that Peyton Manning calls run plays at the line of scrimmage more than almost any other top quarterback.  With that high-powered offense, I expect Denver to put up a lot of points, with Ball being the recipient of more than his fair share of them.

 

1. Le'veon Bell, Running Back, Pittsburgh Steelers

As far as tough-nosed running backs go, I'm not sure there was a better team that Michigan State's Le'veon Bell could have been drafted by than the Pittsburgh Steelers.  After losing their last feature back, Rashard Mendenhall, to the Arizona Cardinals, the Steelers selected Bell in last week's draft. By all accounts, he is going to be given every chance to win that job over the summer as well as in the preseason.  Needless to say, I think he is going to take that opportunity and run with it.  Not only am I confident in Bell's abilities, he fits in to the Steelers offensive philosophy perfectly.

As I'm sure you noticed, there isn't a single quarterback in my Top 10 Fantasy Football Rookies heading in to this summer.  It's not that I don't think the rookies drafted last week aren't any good, it's just far too early to see which teams (if any) are going to be starting a rookie quarterback.  As that plays it self out over the next few months, expect to see this list possibly change.

If you talked to me at all before the draft, it's no secret that I think the best quarterback from this class is, without a doubt, going to be USC's Matt Barkley.  While I don't expect him to play much of a role in Chip Kelly's offense this season, I do think he is going to be a very good quarterback for a long time to come.  That said, if I had to rank JUST the rookie quarterbacks in terms of their fantasy impact this season, it would look like this:

1. EJ Manuel
2. Tyler Wilson
3. Geno Smith

I do not think that Geno Smith has a realistic chance to win the starting job heading in to week one, and it's far from a given that he will even see the field this season (as far as I'm concerned, there's no doubt that Rex Ryan has little to no clue when it comes to how to handle his quarterback situation, so anything is possible).  I can't say the same for EJ Manuel and Tyler Wilson.  It would not surprise me if both of those quarterbacks win their team's competition and are their respective team's week one starters.

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