Coming down the stretch in the regular season and heading into the fantasy playoffs, playing the right defense is all about the matchups. Outside of the top two or three defenses, maximizing your defensive slot relies on the offense the team is facing that week. So now we need to look at which teams will remain an old reliable, and which will move up the rankings because of their Week 13 matchups.
1. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers were anything but reliable for the first part of the season, but are really coming into their own in the second half. They have at least 11 fantasy points in their past five games, and should continue that trend against the St. Louis Rams. Yes, the Rams’ offense has been on fire lately but Kellen Clemens is still nothing to be afraid of, and star rookie running back Zac Stacy could be out with a concussion. Clemens has just four touchdowns in five games, while throwing two interceptions and losing four fumbles. San Francisco is the safest defensive play this week.
Projected Statistics: 17 points allowed, four sacks, one interception, one fumble recovery
2. Carolina Panthers
One of the only defenses to be consistently reliable this season, the Panthers are looking to continue their streak of dominance this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have won three straight games, and have scored at least 22 points in each of their last three games. Quarterback Mike Glennon also doesn’t throw very many interceptions. But in Week 8, the last time Carolina faced Tampa, Carolina recorded 10 fantasy points, allowing the Bucs to score just 13 points. The Panthers have been great at rushing the passer all season, though, and still have one of the best front sevens in the NFL.
Projected Statistics: 10 points allowed, four sacks, one interception
3. New England Patriots
The first matchup play makes the list this week, with the Patriots taking on the Houston Texans. New England has forced 10 turnovers in its last four games, and although Case Keenum hasn’t been turning the ball over much since taking over as quarterback of the Texans, they are still allowing the fourth most points to fantasy defenses. The Pats won’t be pulling in three interceptions in this one, but the Texans frankly just can’t score right now.
Projected Statistics: Six points allowed, one sack, one fumble recovery
4. Miami Dolphins
Miami hasn’t been a strong fantasy defense by any stretch of the imagination this season, but any team that faces Geno Smith and the New York Jets is primed for a big fantasy day. The Dolphins have forced at least one turnover in every game this season, including a nine-point performance last week against the hot Carolina Panthers’ offense. The Jets are allowing the second most points to fantasy defenses, mainly because of Smith’s 22 total turnovers (18 of them coming on interceptions). Miami won’t be getting anywhere close to a shutout, but Smith’s presence at least guarantees points from turnovers.
Projected Statistics: 20 points allowed, three sacks, two interceptions
5. Cleveland Browns
Again, a matchup play this week, but a good one at that. The Browns have a solid defense, but hasn’t had much rest because of Cleveland’s poor offense, leading to inconsistent play. But the Browns do have four games of double-digit fantasy points, and they have a great matchup in the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. In all but four of their games this season, the Jaguars have turned the ball over multiple times, while the Browns have 13 total takeaways this season. At this point, any defense playing the Jags should crack the top five.
Projected Statistics: 23 points allowed, three sacks, one interception, one fumble recovery