When it comes to fantasy quarterback rankings heading in to the 2013 NFL season, as far as I'm concerned, you know what they say; the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Yes, there's no doubt that the younger, more athletic quarterbacks such as Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick were thrust in to the spotlight in 2012. I'm not saying that those guys won't have very good numbers this season, but none of them crack my top five fantasy quarterback heading in to this off-season:
5. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Cam is the only quarterback in my top five who is a serious threat on the ground. Newton racked up 741 yards and 8 touchdowns running the ball in 2012 (14 rushing touchdowns in 2011) to go with his 3,869 yards and 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions through the air.
Cam started off the season very slow, which led most people to buy in to the idea that he was just the latest victim of the dreaded "Sophomore Slump" that quarterbacks sometimes go through. However, that was not the case, as Cam came on strong the second half of the season and finished with the 5th most fantasy points among all quarterbacks.
There's nothing substantial I can point to in order to back this claim up, but I would be beyond shocked if Cam finishes anywhere near the 19-12 touchdown to interception ratio he did this past season. If Cam is the quarterback you want for your fantasy team, I suggest snatching him up somewhere in the early to mid-second round of your draft, as I doubt he will be left on the board much after that.
4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Like I said earlier: the more things change, the more they stay the same. Tommy B. is no stranger when it comes to the top of fantasy quarterbacks lists, as he's found himself among the top of most everyone's list for the past decade or so. There are concerns that Brady's go-to receiver Wes Welker may not be brought back, but even IF that is the case, I am convinced that teammate Julian Edelman is more than capable of filling that role.
Despite having no real deep threat (the Brandon Lloyd experiment didn't exactly work out like most people, myself included, thought it would...but that's another subject for another day) and missing both of his tight ends (two of the best in the league) for extended periods of time, Brady still racked up 4,827 yards to go with 34 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. It's not unrealistic to think his numbers in 2013 will be on par with those.
3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
When it came to Peyton's return to the league after missing the entire 2011 season, there's no doubt that I had some questions as to whether or not he was going to be the Peyton we have been accustomed to seeing. I can vividly remember sitting on the floor in my San Diego living room with less than four minutes remaining on my draft clock trying to decide whether or not to risk a third-round pick on him in one of my fantasy leagues.
I turned to my cousin, who is not a fan of sports and has never seen an entire NFL game start to finish in his life (admittedly, maybe not the best person to go to for advice in this area), and ask him what he thinks. He said, "There's nothing to think about. He's going to throw for forty-five hundred yards, 40 touchdowns and 10 picks--EASY."
How someone who I wouldn't even describe as a casual NFL fan could predict so close to the 4,659 yards, 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions Manning threw for and so many "experts" had no clue what to expect, I'll never know. Manning showed no signs of his surgically repaired neck and spine not holding up, and I see no reason to expect anything different out of him this season.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Personally, I've never bought in to the Rodgers' hype as much as everyone else has. Every off-season before my fantasy drafts I'm pondering in my head, 'Do I really want to draft this guy? I just can't see him doing that again.' And for the last two seasons, he's done it again. There's a lot of speculation about whether or not Aaron will have Greg Jennings catching balls from him this season (Donald Driver has already officially announced his retirement), but even if he isn't, there are still plenty of offensive weapons on the Packers' roster.
Rodgers threw for 4,643 yards and an unprecedented 45 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2011. He followed that up by throwing for 4,295 yards to go with 39 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2012. I don't think it's a stretch to pencil him in for something like 4,500 yards, 36 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions.
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
In life, hindsight is always 20/20. It's no different in the NFL. I'd be willing to bet that if the San Diego Chargers could go back to August of 2004, they would not have signed quarterback Philip Rivers to a six-year, $40.5M contract after acquiring him in a draft-day trade from the New York Giants for Eli Manning, essentially ending Brees' tenure in San Diego (though Brees was still franchised by the Chargers in '05 and remained their starting quarterback). They would never admit to that, but I don't think you would find anyone with a brain who would put Rivers' numbers head-to-head versus Brees' and expect to come out on top.
Brees threw for 5,476 yards, 46 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2011 and followed that up with 5,177 yards, 43 touchdowns and 19 interceptions this past season. There's absolutely no reason for me to believe that his production is going to fall off of numbers that are on par with his past two season's in 2013.
Just missing my top five was the Falcons' Matt Ryan, who was finally able to get the playoff monkey off his back after beating the Seattle Seahawks to advance to the NFC Championship game. As if that weren't enough to prove to critics that he's here to stay and deserves to be mentioned when you talk about the best quarterbacks in the league, Ryan finished with 4,719 yards to go with 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
If you read my 2013 top five fantasy wide receivers column, you're already aware that I am probably one of the biggest Julio Jones fans on the planet. Needless to say, he is a huge asset that Ryan has in his corner. As if that weren't enough, he also has Roddy White on the other side of the numbers. Together, they help make up the best receiving core in the league as far as I'm concerned. Tony Gonzalez has announced he is retiring, but as the season gets closer and closer, it would not surprised me in the slightest to hear Gonzo announce he is returning for his 17th season in the league. "We're going to give him the Brett Favre treatment; go out to California, hang out with him on the beach, and hopefully bring him back to Atlanta", said White.
There are a few other high-profile quarterbacks I would definitely keep an eye on heading in to 2013, and one that I definitely would not.
Andrew Luck threw for 4,374 yards, 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions in his rookie campaign. He also rushed for 255 yards and five touchdowns. While no one is going to confuse his style of play with Michael Vick's, it's not a stretch to think he will give you close to the same production on the ground this season, while at the same time improving his touchdowns to interception ratio.
Russell Wilson burst on to the season in 2012 with 3,118 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 picks (as well as 94 rushes for 489 yards and four touchdowns) after winning a quarterback competition over Matt Flynn to be the Seahawks' starter. While Wilson may never be a top fantasy QB simply because he isn't relied on to carry his team as much as other guys are, he would be someone who I would target in the mid-rounds of your draft if you're looking for a quarterback without much downside.
Colin Kaepernick is the opposite. He will absolutely be counted on to lead his team as far as he can. After taking over for Alex Smith in Week 6 after he was knocked out of the game, Colin threw for 1,814 yards, 10 touchdowns and three picks to go with 415 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the seaosn. As of now, I would have Kaepernick somewhere between the eighth and 10th ranked quarterbacks for 2013.
One guy I am very likely to stay away from in my fantasy drafts this season is Redskins' QB Robert Griffin III. Not only is he coming off a torn ACL in Wild Card Weekend and it's still not a certainty that he isn't going to miss time this season as a result (though he has said he is going to be ready for week 1), I am just not a believer that he is capable of staying healthy for a full, 16-game schedule.
I am not a doctor, nor have I ever pretended to be one, but there is no limit to how uncomfortable I would be knowing my hopes at a fantasy championship sit squarely on the shoulders of a quarterback who has torn his ACL not once, but twice. RG3 finished sixth in total fantasy points among quarterbacks, so there are fantasy owners who are going to take a chance on him--I just will not be one of them.