Coming in to this year's NFL season, most fantasy owners didn't believe that Adrian Peterson was worthy of a first-round pick. 'All Day' tore his ACL and MCL in Minnesota's Christmas Eve game against the Washington Redskins in 2011. Most fantasy owners weren't buying Peterson's promise to not miss a single game in 2012. Adrian came through on that promise and fell just nine yards short of breaking Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing record, eclipsing 2,097 yards and 12 TD on 348 carries.
Needless to say, any fantasy owners who believed in Peterson's vow to play all 16 games in 2012 were rewarded in a big way. Whether you got him in the first round or the third round of your fantasy draft, you weren't disappointed. Heading in to the 2013 NFL season, if you're able to land A.D. on your fantasy team, it won't be in the third round. Peterson is a sure-fire first-round pick, and with the surplus of quality quarterbacks in the league, I would have no problem if you make him the overall number one pick in your draft.
Honestly, there are no clear-cut certainties after Peterson, but there are a lot of quality backs, here is the list of them who round out my top five for the 2013 NFL fantasy season. Keep in mind, these rankings may change once we get closer to the season and see what moves teams make in the off-season; especially for one stud running back, who I will get to later:
2. Arian Foster, Houston Texans
I give up. I have no idea what to make of the Houston Texans as a team. I thought they were very overrated last year and they went on to win their division and beat the Cincinnati Bengals on Wild Card Weekend. I thought they were overrated this season (and for the second half of the season, they absolutely were), yet they still went on to win their division and beat the Bengals on Wild Card Weekend for the second year in a row. The only thing I'm absolutely, positively sure of when it comes to the Texans is that that I am a huge fan of J.J. Watt and no matter what the Texans do in 2013, Arian Foster is going to be a part of it.
Foster rushed for 1,424 yards and 15 TD (the highest of anyone in the league, two more than Alfred Morris' 13) on 351 carries, a league-high. He also pulled down 40 balls for 217 yards and another two scores. I was faced with the decision to draft Foster or Baltimore's Ray Rice this past fantasy season. Despite the fact that third-year back Ben Tate was slated to steal some carries (and potentially be the team's goal line back) from Arian, I went with Foster and rode him to a league championship. I'm sure we will hear that Foster's workload may be reduced again this off-season, but personally, I'm not buying it.
3. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Much like Peterson, Charles was also coming off of an ACL tear in 2011. Luckily for him, he tore it early in the season and had the full amount of time to rehabilitate, instead of just under nine months like Adrian. Despite not getting a very big work load at times this season (there was never an explanation as to why) and also missing some time due to injury, Charles put up some very good numbers. He rushed for 1,509 yards on 285 carries and pulled down 35 balls for 236 yards, but was only able to find the end zone a total of six times (once coming through the air).
As you know, Kansas City fired Romeo Crennel as their head coach and hired long-time Philadelphia coach, Andy Reid. While it's true that Reid's offense relies much more heavily on the pass than on the ground, he likes to keep his backs involved in the passing game, which is a positive sign of things to come for Charles (especially in PPR leagues)--as long as he is able to stay on the field.
4. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Heading in to 2012, there weren't a lot of teams who were going to rely mainly on one back to carry the load for them. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of those few teams. They named their rookie, Martin, their feature back very early on in the off-season, and ever since then, he hasn't looked back.
Martin ran for 1,454 yards on 319 carries and found pay dirt 11 times while pulling down 49 catches for 472 yards and another score. Going in to 2013, Tampa has no plans to change up their back field, and it is once again going to be Martin's job to run with it.
5. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
While rookie-sensation quarterback Russell Wilson was busy getting a lot of publicity for his play this season, some people overlooked the fact that Lynch ran for 1,590 yards on 256 carries and got in to the end zone a total of 12 times. Not only was his on-the-field play everything Seattle had hoped it was going to be, he wasn't involved in any off-the-field incidents in 2012, something that hasn't always been the case for 'Beast Mode'.
It's no secret that Lynch isn't getting any younger, which does create a little cause for concern. However, Seattle's rookie running back Robert Turbin was wildly inconsistent when he was able to get on the field, and in my opinion, is a huge question mark for the Seahawks heading forward. Unless Seattle drafts a running back in the first few rounds of this year's draft, you can pencil in another 240+ carries for Marshawn.
If you aren't able to land one of those five backs in your fantasy draft this off-season--no worries. There are still a lot of very good running backs available, including two of my personal favorite's: Chris Johnson and LeSean McCoy. Everyone has those players who they're just a little bit higher on than the majority of everyone else. I don't think it would be a stretch to say that McCoy and Johnson are two who fit that mold for me.
There's no denying that McCoy had a down year, partly due to injury, partly due to the fact that Philly's so-called "Dream Team" was anything but. LeSean only rushed for 840 yards on 200 carries and only found the end zone twice this past season. With Chip Kelly running that offense now, I would bet that 'Shady's' numbers will be much closer to the 1,624 total yards and 20 touchdowns that he put up in 2011 than what he produced this past season.
'CJ2K' is another running back that I think is going to have a big year in 2013. He finished 2012 with 1,243 yards (9th in the league) and six touchdowns on 276 carries despite posting rushing totals of 4, 17, 24 and 24 yards four of the first five weeks this past season. I look for him to improve upon his total numbers from this season to next.
There are definitely some bigger name backs who I would try to stay away from, namely Matt Forte and Alfred Morris. The Bears have seemed to adapted their game plan of letting an overwhelming percentage of Chicago's offense rely on Forte this past season, which was the case in 2011, and have instead opted for a "two-back system" with Michael Bush seeing a lot of work, including goal-line carries.
While Morris' production doesn't solely rely on his quarterback, Robert Griffin III running the zone-read option attack, it's not wrong to anticipate Morris' numbers going down from his rookie season (1,613 yards and 13 TD), especially if Griffin, who is coming off an ACL tear in this year's playoffs, misses time. Morris will always be a big, bruising back and rack up the YAC, but I would definitely stay clear of drafting him or Forte before the mid-third round of your fantasy draft this season.
The last two, but certainly not least, running backs I'm going to talk about in this preview is Super Bowl Champion Ray Rice and the Buffalo Bills' C.J. Spiller. It's my personal opinion that Rice is one of the best three backs in the league, however, for whatever reason, he has not always put up 'top' fantasy numbers (7th in running back fantasy points this season). With the production that rookie running back Bernard Pierce gave in the playoffs (4th in total yards for running backs with over 200 yards) and the expanded role I expect him to have going forward, I don't see that changing in 2013 for Rice.
Spiller is the monkey wrench that Buffalo's first-year head coach, Doug Marrone, could throw in to the equation at anytime if he were to name C.J. his starting tail back. As of now, that spot is still Fred Jackson's to lose, who still has two years left on his contract. Spiller rushed for 1,244 yards and 6 touchdowns on just over 200 carries in 2012 and hauled in 43 catches for 459 yards and another two touchdowns.
If Marrone were to name Spiller the starting tailback tomorrow (although, IF that were to happen, he would almost certainly be in a time share with Jackson--unless they were able to move him), I would rank Spiller as my third of fourth running back heading in to 2013 fantasy season. Needless to say, this is a situation that fantasy owners need to pay close attention to before their drafts this summer.