Every week there are players who out preform or underperform based on our expectations. Expectations are a funny thing. I cannot tell you how many people have complained to me about how Drew Brees has cost them in the first two weeks. I agree that Drew Brees has not been worthy of where people drafted him (nor would any quarterback, but that’s another discussion).
The fact of the matter, however, is Brees averaged 20.68 fantasy points per game last season. This year through two games, he is averaging 16.68. If he has a good game this weekend, he could equal his pace from last year. But people don’t look at it that way. They “expect” more, so they are disappointed.
The below list is not designed as a sit/start type article. Rather, it is aimed at trying to refocus some of our expectations. These will be players that you may be relying heavily on for big points each week, but for some identified reason, the player may not be as productive as usual. Here are the Top 5 players that could underperform in Week 3… Manage your expectations accordingly.
1. Tom Brady, Quarterback, New England Patriots
Brady’s appearance at No. 1 on this list is more of a referendum on his supporting cast than an endorsement of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Brady’s wide receiving corp consists of a 5’9’’ former college quarterback and three guys from the accounting department. He is a great quarterback, but like Bill Parcells would say, “You are what you are.” And at this point in the season, Brady is 21st in the league in passing yards (behind names like Weeden and Tannehill) and is third from last in the league in completion percentage at 52.7 percent (ahead of only names like Blaine Gabbert and Josh Freeman). Yikes! I do not mean to discredit the Bucs defense either. They are a more than respectable unit. Between the suspension of Dashon Goldson being overturned and Darrelle Revis and head coach Greg Schiano having a “clear the air meeting,” this could be a long day for Mr. Brady against the eighth-ranked defense in the league in points per game (17).
Better play this week: Sam Bradford
2. C.J. Spiller, Running Back, Buffalo Bills
The 2013 season has not started like any of us expected for Spiller, one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season. His average yards per rush is down almost two yards from last year, he has zero touchdowns and he has been non-existent in the passing game (eight yards receiving in two games). I thought we were going to see if we could make this guy hurl. Not to mention that teammate Fred Jackson is looking more like a partner in the rushing game, rather than the complementary role most thought he would play. Through the first two games, Spiller has only nine more touches than Jackson. Now the Bills must travel to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets. For all the turmoil and uncertainty surrounding the Jets at the beginning of the year, they have a really solid defense. This defense is ranked second in yards per game (241), fifth in rushing yards per game (59.5) and fourth in points per game (15). Say what you will about Rex Ryan, but he is a good defensive coach. Although I do still like Spiller going forward, expectations should be measured for this Week 3 contest.
Better play this week: Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
3. James Starks, Running Back, Green Bay Packers
It will be very difficult for this week’s waiver wire darling to be able to return the love to fantasy owners. Starks came out of nowhere in Week 2 to rush for 132 yards and one score against the Redskins. This week he faces a much different defensive unit. These are not your father’s Bengals. Last week, they gave up just 2.8 yards per rush. In fact, they rank 7th, 7th and 8th in yards per game, rushing yards per game and points per game, respectively. Furthermore, this is still James Starks we’re talking about. There is a reason that the Packers went out and took two running backs in last year’s draft. Look for Green Bay to abandon the running game all together if they’re not successful right out of the gate. Last year, the Packers finished in the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. This coaching staff would rather pass, and when Aaron Rodgers is your quarterback, can you blame them?
Better play this week: Jason Snelling, Atlanta Falcons
4. Russell Wilson, Quarterback, Seattle Seahawks
Unlike Spiller and Starks, this call is not based on a tough match-up. Unlike Brady, it is not based on the supporting cast. In fact, Wilson will underperform because his supporting cast is too good. This game will get out of hand so quickly that Wilson will either spend the majority of the game handing the ball off or sitting on the bench. It would be surprising if he attempted more than 20 passes. Last week, the Seahawks blew the doors off of the 49ers. Wilson was 8/19 for 142 yards, one touchdown and one interception. 19 pass attempts in a NFL game in 2013? Wilson ranks 30th in the league in pass attempts per game. The Seahawks simply do not need Wilson to produce in order to win. No one does against the Jaguars. In Week 1, Alex Smith threw for 173 yards. Terrelle Pryor only managed 126 yards in Week 2. Both won comfortably. The Seahawks will roll, Wilson won’t be fantasy relevant, and we can all start talking about contracting the Jaguars and the Browns. Wait, then we’ll have Chad Henne throwing to Greg Little. That’s not any better.
Better play this week: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
5. Darren McFadden, Running Back, Oakland Raiders
It has been a strong open to the 2013 campaign for Run DMC. He is 4th in the NFL in rushing yards and leads the league with 4 rushes of 20 yards or more. His talent has never been in question, his durability has. But he is seemingly healthy now, so why would he underperform this week? Game circumstances. Did you know that the Denver Broncos defense has allowed the least amount of rushing yards of any team in the NFL? Is it because they have the nastiest run defense since the 2000 Ravens? Of course not. This is both my favorite and least favorite thing about statistics. They can be misleading. They do not take into account game circumstances. The Broncos are the best run defense in the league because of their offense. They score over 40 points a game and force opponents to throw the ball on every down. And that is precisely what will happen in this game. I do think McFadden will make some plays in the passing game, but half of what he does will be taken away once Peyton and company begin lighting up the scoreboard.
Better play this week: DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers