Top-Five Fantasy Football Players on New Teams

By Jonathan Munshaw on Tuesday, April 1st 2014
Top-Five Fantasy Football Players on New Teams

Now that the free agency period is (close) to over, it's time to look at the fantasy implications of the offseason moves. Keep in mind, these rankings are based off of fantasy value, and are made with the thought in mind of which players are going to have the best 2014 fantasy seasons, not where their draft value will be in August and September. 

 

5. Michael Vick, QB, Jets

From a pure football stance, signing Vick may have not been the best move for the Jets. Vick is nothing more than a stop-gap quarterback at this point in his career for the Jets, and provides no long-term solutions.

But from a fantasy perspective, Vick has a lot of upside. He’ll most likely be drafted as a backup quarterback (or a No. 2 quarterback in leagues that start two of them), but has the opportunity to move up to be a top 12 fantasy quarterback.

Vick still possesses the ability to both run and throw for yardage, and for fantasy gold – the touchdowns. Vick has 36 rushing touchdowns for his career, and had 17 passing touchdowns in his two years as an on-again, off-again starter for the Philadelphia Eagles. If he can cut out the excessive fumbles he’s exhibited since coming back to the league, he could become fantasy relevant.

In New York, he has the opportunity. As long as Vick is healthy, there’s no way that Geno Smith will be taking his job. They also added Eric Decker as a receiver (we’ll get to him in a minute) to throw to.

Even with as awful as Smith was last season, he attempted 443 passes, which is more than Vick has ever attempted in one season in his career. This opens up the opportunity for Vick to throw a little more than he did in Philly with LeSean McCoy in the backfield with him.

Again, don’t draft him as your starting quarterback, but take him knowing he could eventually get there.  

 

4. Eric Decker, WR, Jets

There are a lot of concerns about Decker as a No. 1 wide receiver. He never really filled that role in Denver, and could have easily benefitted the last two years from having Peyton Manning as his quarterback.

Because of the Manning factor, there’s no way that Decker breaks double-digit touchdowns this season, but he will get plenty of looks with Vick under center. New York’s next-best receiver is Jeremy Kerly, who has just six touchdowns in his three years in the league.

He won’t be breaking into the top 10 receivers in terms of total fantasy points like he did the last two seasons, again, just because of the Denver factor.

But Decker is still talented. He was the most talented receiver in this free agent class (up until DeSean Jackson was releaed) and won’t lose fantasy relevance entirely.

 

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Raiders

Even though Jones-Drew is on his way to reaching the dreaded 30-year mark for running backs, he still has a good chance to make a splash in fantasy this season. In addition to signing Jones-Drew, the Raiders also retained speedster Darren McFadden.

With Jones-Drew’s age it’s best for him to not be the every-down back for a team, and he’ll get plenty of breaks with McFadden on the team. As always, McFadden is a risky fantasy play because of his injury history and overall lack of consistency, but Jones-Drew will break the top 20 running backs when all is said and done this season.

Jones-Drew will presumably be the touchdown back for the Raiders. If they get in close, he is more reliable and is overall a harder back to bring down than McFadden, so expect him to get the majority of the goal line touches.

Now with Matt Schaub in Oakland, Terrelle Pryor won’t be in to take rushing plays away from the backs, and even with Pryor and McFadden on the team, Rashad Jennings (who is now with the Giants) got 163 carries. Jennings finished 21st among running backs last season in total fantasy points, and Jones-Drew should pass Jennings’s 2013 numbers in yards and rushing touchdowns.

In 10 games last season, McFadden had just 12 rushing attempts on third down, with the majority of his work coming on first down. Expect Jones-Drew to be the second and third down guy to pick up the gritty yardage. Plus, McFadden is a lock to miss at least some time this season, as he always has.

Jones-Drew may not get to the 1,000-yard mark, but who doesn’t love a back who could end up scoring nine touchdowns by the time the season is over?

 

2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Dolphins

The concern over Moreno’s injury history and Denver factor is real, but you can’t forget that he was fifth among running backs in total fantasy points last year. I went into this more in-depth last week in this piece (full analysis is behind paywall) but Moreno has a big opportunity in Miami.

The Manning factor will catch up to Moreno, and his receiving numbers definitely won’t be as high this year as they were in 2013. But the other rushing options for the Dolphins aren’t exactly desirable, and Moreno will be the No. 1 option there.

Moreno is coming off a year where he set career records for yards and touchdowns in a season, but his yards per-carry number was about par for what he averaged for his career. As long as Moreno can stay healthy, he’ll be in the conversation to be a top 15 running back.

If he plays in all 16 games, Moreno has a real chance to be a 1,000-yard rusher again, and if we are looking at this list again after the 2015 Super Bowl, Moreno won’t be ahead of the Marshawn Lynchs or Eddie Lacys of the world, but he will be in the Reggie Bush, Frank Gore area.

 

1. Ben Tate, RB, Browns

Again, if we are looking at this list again come February 2015, Tate has the best chance to be the best fantasy player on here. Tate is finally taking on a full starting role in Cleveland, after spending the first three years of his career behind Arian Foster.

He does have a history of injury, but when he’s played, he has made a strong case to get a starting role.

In fantasy, it’s all about opportunity, and he definitely has opportunity with the Browns, who are virtually running back-less besides Chris Ogbonnaya who shouldn’t be any more than a backup running back in the NFL.

Tate averages 4.7 yards per carry for his career, which is actually better than Foster’s career average. In 2012, if Tate had carried the ball as many times as Foster, he was on pace to rush for 1,509 yards. Obviously, if he had played and started in all 16 games he wouldn’t have gotten to there, but it still shows the kind of ability Tate has.

Cleveland’s new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan ran the ball 276 times last season with Alfred Morris in Washington, and that was with Robert Griffin III on the team providing another running option.

Provided that the Browns don’t draft Johnny Manziel, their quarterback won’t have the same skill set as RGIII, and Tate can flourish as the top rushing option for the Browns.

Even in his rookie year when Foster rushed for over 1,200 yards, Tate still had 942 yards and four touchdowns on 5.4 yards per carry. Oh, and he played through cracked ribs during the second half of the season. He’s a pretty tough dude.

Tate won’t be drafted as a first or a second round back in drafts this Summer, but he’ll finish the year ranked higher than Moreno and Jones-Drew.

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