It now appears that Houston Texans running back Arian Foster may very well return much sooner than anticipated following successful surgery on his groin this past Friday.
The Houston Chronicle's Aaron Wilson, citing an individual close to the situation, is indicating that Foster could return to full health within 2-3 months and might be on the field within the next 4-6 weeks. This is a dramatic change from previous reports indicating that it was a near certainty Foster would be placed on short-term injured reserve, which would have made him available to play Week 10.
It's now all about whether Houston views a somewhat healthy Foster as a better alternative than other options on the roster. This decision will also be made based on the possibility of Foster re-injuring his groin should he return before he's 100 percent.
Fantasy Slant
The four-week timeline would enable Foster to be ready to go for Houston's Week 1 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Though, that's a very optimistic approach to take, especially if you are willing to pick Foster up at his current ADP (bottom of the second round).
The six-week timetable would put Foster in line to return when Houston takes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. This is probably the baseline return date we should at this point. It also means Foster's situation should be treated somewhat similarly to Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell, who is suspended for the first two games of the season. The three issues that come with placing the same value on Foster as Bell is:
1. Injury aside, Foster isn't the same caliber fantasy performer at this stage of his career.
2. Bell's missing the first two games due to a suspension. He'll be 100 percent when Week 3 comes calling. We have no idea how Foster will perform if he returns before he's 100 percent.
3. Houston could make the decision to place Foster on short-term IR, which would place us back to square one.
For those drafting over the next couple weeks, likely before Houston makes a decision, there are some factors to take into account. Assuming he's not placed on IR and will be available in time for Week 3, the question becomes whether a somewhat hobbled Foster is a better option for 14 games than those immediately following him in terms of ADP.
At this point, Justin Forsett and Alfred Morris are in the same spectrum as it relates to ADP. Considering both were top-13 performers last season with Forsett coming in at eighth overall, they should be selected ahead of Foster right now.
If, in your specific draft, hesitation surrounding Foster takes over, there's a chance he will fall to Round 3 or Round 4. We ran three different simulations. This was the case twice. That puts Foster in Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon and Frank Gore ADP level. That also puts you in an awkward position. Ingram has to be considered an unknown at this point, and should only be selected before Foster if you plan to use C.J. Spiller as a handcuff from the FLEX position. Meanwhile, both Gordon and Gore offer higher upside in a 16-game slate than Foster offers for a maximum of 14 games.
After that, it's pretty much Foster over everyone. He's a better option than the likes of Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde and Latavius Murray, if only due to the fact that he's going to be driven into the ground on a talent-stricken Texans offense.
The one primary thing to take out of all this is the fact that Foster simply can't be relied on to be a true RB1 performer this year. There's not a single person out there that can justify taking what promises to be a major early-season hit by relying on him in that capacity. Instead, the only reasonable way to roster Foster right now is if you decide to go running back in Round 1 and roll the dice on Foster as a high-upside RB2 option. Even then, you might be forced to add another running back a couple rounds later to make up for the possibility that Foster could miss more time than what's currently being mentioned as a likelihood by those close to the situation.
Here's how that scenario could look:
