Week 10 - NFL Picks

By Andrew Brand on Thursday, November 8th 2012
Week 10 - NFL Picks

Week 10 is upon us and we still have an unbeaten team making a run at an undefeated season. The Atlanta Falcons won their game against the Cowboys, despite many opinions to the contrary. This week the Falcons role into New Orleans in a bid to remain perfect on the year, while the Saints are looking to play spoiler.

An interesting story is continuing to develop in Indianapolis as the Colts are now 5-3 on the season and play the worst team in the league in Jacksonville this week. After this week, should the inevitable happen; I don’t think anyone had the Colts winning six games in the entire year, much less through ten weeks. Great story of team perseverance and will to win.

From a point spread perspective, this week doesn’t have as many close games as last week. New England, San Francisco and Pittsburgh are all double digit spread favorites. Despite this there are two very compelling games to keep an eye on. The Philadelphia Eagles are basically playing for their season and jobs as they host the Dallas Cowboys and in another game the equally matched 7-1 Chicago Bears host the Houston Texans.

Last week my record was 12-2 with my upset pick of the week and lock pick of the week winning. Overall record on the year is 85-47. This week was tough to pick an upset game as I’m not big on any of the ‘dogs coming through. So much so, I will put out an upset pick, but can’t in good conscious actually pick them myself.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis needs to be taken serious; they are 5-3 on the season and look to get their 6th win against the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars. Quick rundown of NFL standings shows only seven teams with better records. Despite ranking bottom third in both offense and defense; the Colts find a way to win. Jacksonville on the other hand is terrible and they aren’t facing the same Colts team they stole a win from back in week 3. PICK: COLTS

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A battle of two 4-4 teams, each looking to keep the momentum going after their respective week 9 wins. San Diego got to beat up the hapless Chiefs and they get an extra long week to prepare and rest, while the Buccaneers literally ran wild over the Oakland Raiders. If the Chargers can’t stop the run then this will be a long night for that defensive line as Doug Martin will pound the ball all night long. Game will come down to turnovers; Philip Rivers is turnover prone and the ‘Bucs are one of the best at generating turnovers. PICK: BUCCANEERS

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Tennessee is coming off a home field beating at the hands of the Chicago Bears and they must now go on the road to play another tough physical defense in Miami. The Dolphins are probably still steamed about their loss to Indianapolis and are going to look to close out this game when they get their chances. The Miami defense will hold up and limit Chris Johnson to under 100 yards rushing. PICK: DOLPHINS

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

The Bills have lost four of their last five games and now must travel into Foxborough to play the division rival Patriots. In a rematch from week 4, it is just as likely that the Bills will cede another 52 points in this contest. The Patriots are coming off their late season bye week and look to crank up that high powered offense again. PICK: PATRIOTS

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

The Oakland Raiders gave up 278 rushing yards last week. If the defense can’t stop the run and the Baltimore Ravens actually hand the ball off to Ray Rice then the Raiders are going to be in trouble. Ray Rice needs to touch the ball at least 25 times in this game. Force the Raider defense to play the line and that will open up the passing game for Joe Flacco. PICK: RAVENS

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

The Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning look to be rounding into postseason form as they have won three games in a row. The offense is ranked in the top five, while the defense is top fifteen in the league. The Carolina Panthers actually played fairly well last week in beating the Washington Redskins. That win snapped a five game losing streak for Cam Newton and Co. I’d expect the start of another losing streak with this home game. PICK: BRONCOS

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals

The NY Giants dropped a tough game to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Going into this game you can bet that they don’t want to drop two games in a row as they head into their bye week. The Cincinnati Bengals have lost the last four games and are looking to make it five with this tough home game. The Giants are just too good to lose this game; they will want to hit the break on a high note. PICK: GIANTS

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

I see this as being the tightest game on the schedule for the week. Each team has their weaknesses; however, the Detroit Lions offense is far more potent than that of the Vikings. I don’t put much stock in Christian Ponder as the Vikings quarterback solution. Last three games has seen Ponder complete a total of 38 passes for two touchdowns. As much as I don’t like to do it, make it two losses in a row for the Vikings. PICK: LIONS

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Atlanta remains unbeaten after what many thought was going to be a tough test last week against the Dallas Cowboys. New Orleans is having a resurgence to their season after dropping the first four games of the year. Problem for New Orleans is that their defense is still really poor and the Atlanta Falcons offense is really good. Darren Sproles is out for the Saints this week as well due to injury. I’m not going to pick against the Falcons till they have one in the loss column. PICK: FALCONS

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks

The NY Jets are in trouble. There are rumblings about the Jets making the playoffs despite their 3-5 record. If that is going to be the case, this road game is almost a must-win. This is a tough matchup for the Jets as the Seahawks defense is very good and similarly to the 49ers; the defense is exceptional when playing at home. I used to think that the whole ‘12th’ man concept in Seattle was ridiculous and that it was silly to see fans wearing jerseys with the number 12 on the back. Most teams sell jerseys of their franchise player, quarterback or all-pro. Turns out Seattle does that too, just happens that the best asset the Seahawks have is the home crowd. I think the ‘Hawks ‘best-player’ comes through again here and spurns their team to victory. PICK: SEAHAWKS

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

What a game this should be. Two coaches who are on the hot seat, Michael Vick might be playing his last game as the Eagles starting quarterback and Tony Romo’s chance for vilification in Dallas. The Vegas line to start the week had the Eagles favored to win; that has since changed and the Cowboys are now 1.5 point favorites. Interesting stat; since 1997 the Cowboys are only one game over .500..hmmm. DeMarcus Ware and his cohorts have got to be smacking their lips like its feeding time at the buffet when they think of getting to Vick through the horrifically depleted Eagle’s defensive line. Vick will be lucky to get out of this game with his health much less a starting job. PICK: COWBOYS

St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

This shouldn’t be much of a game. The San Francisco 49ers have the league’s best defense and if it’s even possible that defense plays even tougher at home. The St. Louis Rams are near dead last as an offense and they don’t play well on the road. Each team is coming off a bye week, so the 49ers will have some fresh legs on defense and Jeff Fisher hopefully came up with a game plan so as to keep Sam Bradford from getting his head taken off. PICK: 49ers

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears

The matchup of the week, as both teams are coming in with 7-1 records. These two teams haven’t played each other in almost four years, so we have no recent sampling to take from. The offenses are evenly matched up, as both teams score an average of 29.5 points per game. The Bears have a slight edge on defense as they allow on average two points fewer per game. Where the Bears set themselves apart is the takeaways, interceptions and forced fumbles. They are a plus 16 in takeaways while the Texans are only a plus 8 on the season. Factor in home field advantage, the weather and wind and I’ll take the home team here. PICK: BEARS

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Monday night game in Pittsburgh will see the Steelers role to another win. The Chiefs are just a bad football team. Backup quarterback Matt Cassell is starting again, the running game is inconsistent and the defense is equally poor. The Chiefs rank near the bottom of the league in both offense and defense. The Steelers are looking to keep the momentum going at home from their week 9 win over the Giants. PICK: STEELERS


LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh Steelers

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