Russell Wilson, SEA @ JAX, ($7,700)
I know, the Jaguars have the best pass defense in the NFL and starting Russ this week in DFS is crazy. For most people, that’s all the analysis they need. But, in terms of game theory, rostering a guy who will be virtually unowned could be a great move to separate you from the pack. Russ has been nothing short of amazing this year. Last week he lit up the third-ranked Eagles defense for three touchdowns through the air. He’s scored a rushing touchdown in two of his last three games and if there is anywhere the Jaguars struggle on defense, it is against mobile quarterbacks. Russ leads the team in passing and rushing and accounts for 96 percent of the total offense. Only one touchdown has been scored where Russ was not involved. If the seahawks are able to score, it’s a safe bet that Russ will the arbiter of those points in some form or fashion.
Case Keenum, MIN @ CAR, ($7,500)
The Carolina Panthers pass defense isn’t really that good at all. They have not given up a ton of yards, but they allow an average passer rating of 94.6, which means quarterbacks are having good, efficient games against them. Jay Cutler even had a decent game against this pass defense. The Vikings have a top-five passing offense, and they can move it through the air efficiently thanks to the two studs they have at wideout. At his price and projected low ownership, Keenum is a nice value play this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF @ HOU, ($7,000)
I’d be remiss if I did not admit to being a San Francisco 49ers fan. But I’m not biased when I say, Jimmy is a great value this week against a Houston Texans pass defense that is prone to giving up the big play through the air. Last week Jimmy showed his ability to play read defense and get the ball out quickly against a very tough Bears pass defense. Houston allows opposing QBs a 96.9 passer rating and is giving up the fourth most yards per pass attempt in the NFL. With speedster Marquise Goodwin taking the top off, Jimmy could be in for a big game.
Samaje Perine, WAS @ LAC, ($6,600)
This week Perine gets to go up against one of, if not the, the worst run defense in the NFL. The LA Chargers give up the second-most yards per rush attempt and have the secondworst overall run defense in the NFL. The Chargers allow almost 5 yards per attempt and give up 129 yards per game. Perine has rushed for 100 yards in two of his last three games and probably would have had a big game last week if he did not get scripted out. At his price, he’s a very sneaky play that will get high usage coupled with low ownership.
Lamar Miller, HOU v. SF, ($6,600)
In a game that has sneaky shootout potential, I like Lamar Miller to put points on the board this week. At only $6,600, he could return value in a big way against a 49ers defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to running backs. Lamar’s value comes in the work he gets as a receiver out of the backfield, averaging around about four targets a game. When Tom Savage checks down, Miller is often the beneficiary.
Josh Gordon, CLE V. GB, ($6,800)
#JoshGordonHive stand up! Josh Gordon hasn’t played football in 3 years, but last week he looked as good as ever. Casey Hayward, the number 1 rated cornerback in the NFL, stated that Josh Gordon was his toughest matchup this season other than Odell Beckham Jr. Other receivers he’s faced include: Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Crabtree, Brandin Cooks, and Demaryius Thomas. Take that as you will.
I watched Gordon last week, and while he didn’t score, there was a play where he cleared the defense up the seam and was overthrown for a clear touchdown. Everyone is going to be on Josh Gordon this week and for good reason – he’s a freak of nature. If he goes off for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, you don’t want to be the person that faded him.
Nelson Agholor, PHI V. LAR, ($6,200)
Assuming, Zach Ertz does not clear the concussion protocol, Agholor becomes a huge value play. With Ertz out last week, Agholor saw 12 targets, his highest amount this season by far. He’s tied with Ertz for the team lead in receiving touchdowns and has proven to be a reliable target for Carson Wentz from the slot.
Marquise Goodwin and Trent Taylor, SF v. HOU, ($5,700/$4,500)
I really like the 49ers’ offense this week. Goodwin and Taylor both showed to have great chemistry with Jimmy last week against a tough matchup. This week, they get the easiest matchup they’ll have all season. With Houston’s propensity to give up the big play, Goodwin could take the top off once or twice while Taylor works underneath. Goodwin had eight catches last week and Taylor had six catches for 92 yards. If this game does become a shootout, both of these players will benefit.
David Njoku, CLE v. GB, ($4,700)
Yeah, I know the Browns offense stinks. Hear me out. Gordon will get A LOT of attention this week. Kizer has been playing much better. Corey Coleman is back. Njoku’s snap rate and usage has ticked up. Last week he saw 6 targets for 4 catches, 74 yards and touchdown. He is priced very low on Fanduel. Taking all of the above into account and there’s a lot to like. His floor is still very low, but his ceiling is high, which makes him a great play in tournaments.
Cameron Brate, TB v. DET, ($5,400)
Jameis Winston is back and Brate is one of his most relied upon targets, especially and most importantly, in the redzone. The Lions give up the 8th most points to tight ends per game and surrender the 6th most pass yards per attempt in the NFL. The Buccaneers have not had much of a run game this season, so if and when they enter the red zone against the Lions, Brate is a prime target for Jameis.