Week 14 in the NFL is in the books and with it we near the conclusion of the NFL regular season. The playoff pictures are becoming a bit clearer in some divisions while for others the waters continue to get murkier. The NFC in particular seems to be wide open and we are certainly headed for some last week intrigue in determining the remaining playoff spots.
The remaining three weeks of NFL action will be filled with obscure calculations that will present every possible scenario for a team on its quest for a playoff berth. Don’t get too caught up in the ridiculousness of it all, simple fact is; if you win you get in. This old adage holds true for many teams as the Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, Steelers and Bengals can ill afford any losses.
Last week I went 10-6 with my upset pick of the week in St. Louis winning their game and my Seattle Seahawks lock pick of the week played a real 58 point victory nail biter against Arizona.
There should be some close games this week as some matchups are pretty even. I found myself going with quite a few underdogs this week, not really on purpose but more a result of very close spreads on many games. Here we go, week 15 picks;
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Bengals can control their own playoff destiny as the season nears a close. They dropped their last game to Dallas largely due to costly mistakes and dropped passes; that was a game they should have won. Not that they can afford to look ahead in the schedule; however, after this they travel into Pittsburgh to play a banged up Steelers squad then host Baltimore who are having their own issues and might be resting some players at that point. The Eagles actually showed some fight last week in beating Tampa Bay on the road. Nick Foles threw the ball well and picked out his receivers down the field with great accuracy. I’m just not willing to discount the Bengals motivation here in needing this win, if the Cats go down so does their season. PICK: BENGALS
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
The Colts season just continues to be magical as the wins are piling up now and the playoffs are a realistic expectation. They have a tough road to hoe though as they must play the Houston Texans twice to close out the year; and sandwiched in between those games is the woeful Kansas City Chiefs. Looking back on the year, if the Colts don’t make the playoffs they will circle that week 3 home loss to Jacksonville as being the game that they should have won. Last week the Houston Texans walked into Gillette Stadium on MNF in front of a National audience and basically pooped their big boy pants. Turnovers, penalties and fortuitous New England fumbles all contributed to a humiliating loss. They were billing that game as the biggest game in franchise history; well this game is a character builder as they need to rebound quickly on six days rest and get this win at home. PICK: TEXANS
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins
Another late season game that is completely irrelevant goes this week in Miami as the Jaguars roll into town. At this point the Jags are playing for draft positioning and trying to figure out which quarterback they will draft and where they will pick him. The Dolphins aren’t playing too badly they just played two tough teams in the last two weeks in San Francisco and New England. Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush are playing well and the Fins defense is quiet solid, they should get the home win this week. PICK: DOLPHINS
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens
It would seem that this game in Baltimore is the last hurdle for the Broncos in hopes of winning out the rest of the season. Peyton Manning is continuing to make his claim for another MVP award as he leads the Broncos into this matchup. Baltimore seems to be reeling after consecutive losses to the Steelers and Redskins; they have fired their Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron in hopes of jumpstarting their offense and restoring some confidence in Joe Flacco. Will the offensive reigns come off this week against the Broncos? Maybe; however, this isn’t necessarily the week I’d want to be trying new offensive sets, not against this Bronco defense. PICK: BRONCOS
Minnesota Vikings vs. St. Louis Rams
St Louis actually heads into this contest as the three point favorite; after three consecutive wins this team is showing that they can play some defense. Granted two of the wins were against Arizona and Buffalo and the third was San Francisco off the fumble touchdown recovery. This week they will be in tough at home against the Minnesota Vikings who are having a very up and down season. The one consistency has been All Day Adrian Peterson who is raking up yards on a record breaking pace. You can bet that Peterson will be getting a lot of carries this week and the Rams defensive line will be on their heels all day getting pounded by running plays and short screen passes. Peterson goes off for 180 yards and two scores in the Vikings win. PICK: VIKINGS
Washington Redskins vs. Cleveland Browns
The main story here is the health of super-rookie Robert Griffin III moving forward past this week. At this point it is possible that RGIII plays; however, nothing official has been announced at this point. Even without RGII, Kirk Cousins still has enough weapons at his disposal to thet the job done. The Cleveland Browns have strung together three consecutive wins as they beat Pittsburgh, Oakland and Kansas City; none of which impresses me much. I think the ‘Skins can still pull this game out; it will mean a steady dose of Alfred Morris and perhaps a change in the ‘Skins quarterback philosophy. I think RGIII’s teammates step up and get the job done. PICK: REDSKINS
NY Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons
This is pretty much a must win game for the Giants as they are trying desperately to hold onto the division lead in the NFC East, while the Atlanta Falcons are the only NFC team to have clinched a playoff berth at this stage of the season as they did one better by guaranteeing themselves the NFC South title. In what could be a preview for a second round playoff matchup it remains to be seen just how much the Falcons will be willing to open up the playbook. Eli Manning is going to be feeling the pressure here as Washington and Dallas are nipping at the Giants heels. Atlanta is favored by the slimmest of margins here as they look to remain undefeated at home. I think desperation kicks in here and the Giants sneak out with a win. PICK: GIANTS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
This game should be good old shootout in New Orleans as gunslingers Josh Freeman and Drew Brees will be airing it out with great regularity come Sunday. Three consecutive losses for the Bucs have torpedoed their playoff chances while the Saints were valiant in defeat; they too are long done for the playoffs. The last three games for Brees have not been overly pretty as he has tossed nine interceptions compared to only four touchdowns. I see the Saints putting on an air show inside the Superdome and if Brees can limit the turnovers they should escape with a win. PICK: SAINTS
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
The Packers seem to hitting their stride at an opportune time as they have reeled off seven wins in their last eight weeks. Aaron Rodgers has found some rhythm and the offense is starting to get rolling. The Bears on the other hand are losing their momentum as the season winds down. As a team they have lost four of their last five games and have slipped out of top spot in the NFC North. This divisional game is a big one for both teams as each need a win to inch closer to that playoff berth. In the end I’m going with the team with the hot hand and that is Green Bay. PICK: PACKERS
Carolina Panthers vs. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers snapped a four game losing streak with their road victory last week in Pittsburgh. Philip Rivers had a decent game in throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions to go along with 200 passing yards. The Chargers running game is a non-threat and these quality games for Rivers are too few and far between. It is always difficult to handicap these games that involve these hybrid x-factor quarterbacks like Cam Newton; you never know what the game plan will bring. It might be another 400 all-purpose yard game or a pass happy, interception heavy outing. Here’s hoping it’s the former. PICK: PANTHERS
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
The Seahawks are fresh off their absolute thumping of Arizona last week in what was the most lop sided victory of the year for any team. Marshawn Lynch just ran rough-shot over the Cardinals defense on his way to a three touchdown day. Conversely for the Bills they are once again without their running back in Fred Jackson due to another knee injury. The Seahawks are playing some great defensive football at just the right time of the year. I like the ‘Hawks here to win on the road in Toronto. PICK: SEAHAWKS
Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Detroit Lions played Green Bay to a close game last week where they looked good offensively; unfortunately the defensive unit is just not getting the job done. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson continue to connect at a record setting pace as the Lions get more and more pass happy with each week. The Cardinals suffered a humiliating loss on the road in Seattle and will be looking to salvage some pride back home. Unfortunately they just are not a good football team and they will drop another one here. PICK: LIONS
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys
The 7-6 Steelers limp into Dallas to play the 7-6 Cowboys in this matchup. It might be premature to say but the winner of this game will likely go onto the playoffs while the loser likely gets to sit out the post season fun and wonder where it all went wrong. I’m just going to throw it out there, I hate the Cowboys! There I said it, make no mistake about it. I don’t have much confidence in a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger getting the job done in Big D; however, I have less confidence in Tony Romo guiding an offense missing Dez Bryant and thusly a big-time receiver. On a Cowboys positive All-pro Jason Witten should set the single season reception record for a tight end, unless three of those catches are for touchdowns the Cowboys drop this game. PICK: STEELERS
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
In the toilet bowl game of the game week, these two irrelevant teams get together for a ‘who really cares’ matchup in Oakland. Neither team has much to be optimistic about as each of their seasons were unmitigated disasters. I’ll give the slight edge to Oakland here for the sole reason that Carson Palmer is a better quarterback that anyone the Chiefs can run out there. PICK: RAIDERS
San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots
Colin Kaepernick remains the 49er signal caller now heading into his sixth straight start. I keep hoping that he falls flat on his face; not because I don’t like the 49ers, it’s because I do like the 49ers and I believe they need Alex Smith in there in order to challenge for a title this season. In five games as a starter Kaepernick has only three passing touchdowns to go along with three rushing touchdowns and four lost fumbles; one of which cost them a game in St. Louis. The Patriots defense will be up for this game as will Tom Brady and the offense. Home field advantage again for the Pats means no travel on a short week, more rest, more film and more Belichik all equates to another impressive win. PICK: PATRIOTS
NY Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
One has to figure that this game is do or die for the Jets. Could you imagine the Jets winning out the rest of the way and in some miraculous way sneaking into the playoffs? Nope, me neither. The Jets are actually underdogs coming into this game as they are laying one point to the home team Titans. If Mark Sanchez can’t lead the team to victory here then it is all but over, I can’t imagine things continuing for this once proud organization, changes will be made. For the Titans they have dropped three straight and are searching for answers themselves on many personnel decisions. I have to think that the Jets will get up for this MNF showdown. PICK: JETS
UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK: I’ve got a few upsets on my card this week; however, I feel most confident about the NY Jets beating Tennessee and Washington beating Cleveland.
LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK: Detroit Lions to beat Arizona