While most of us nerds are prepared to delve fully into fantasy baseball, there is a small contingent of individuals who actually make it a point to stay connected with fantasy football news throughout the duration of a calendar year.
Well, I am one of those people.
It’s all about seeing who can get the upper hand when drafts roll around in August. Who has the best draft board? Who has insider information? And who has actually spent the most time studying player movement? This is where we are going to help you on a consistent basis at eDraft. Once free agency starts, we will have regular articles focusing on individual player impact as it relates to fantasy football.
Today, we plan on starting with some moves that have happened prior to the start of the new league year. While there hasn't been a whole heck of a lot to go down, there are some important transactions to note and bookmark.
Alex Smith Traded to the Kansas City Chiefs
Is Smith a viable starting fantasy option? I guess that depends a whole lot on how you value the quarterback position in your draft. As it is, the former San Francisco 49ers’ starter has put up borderline QB1 numbers over the course of the last two seasons. Last year, prior to going down with a concussion, Smith was ahead of players such as: Philip Rivers, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco in fantasy production.
Look for Smith to continue his improvement on the field for Kansas CIty in ‘13. He has a stable running game with Jamaal Charles, one of the best young offensive lines in the NFL and has Dwayne Bowe returning on a five-year contract (more on him later). The key here will be Kansas City’s offensive line. Will it be much like the mediocre group that existed in front of Smith with the 49ers in 2011 or will it compare to the best offensive line in the NFL that Smith played behind for a good part of the season in San Francisco this past year?
If Smith gets the latter, he will surprise a great deal of people. As it is, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4,000 passing yards and 25 scores for Smith in ‘13. That puts him in the starting fantasy conversation in standard 12-team leagues.
Atlanta Falcons Release Michael Turner
Jacquizz Rodgers was a late-round fantasy sensation throughout the 2012 fantasy draft season, but he failed to put up consistent numbers on a weekly basis. Now that Atlanta has said goodbye to Turner, you can easily expect Rodgers to get more touches next season. That being said, he isn’t going to be an every-down running back for the Falcons. Instead, reports indicate that the Falcons are going to look at Steven Jackson should he opt out of his St. Louis Rams’ contract. If not, Atlanta will either look in the direction of Ahmad Bradshaw or draft a running in the second or third round. Either way, don’t expect Rodgers to be better than a decent FLEX option in ‘13.
Dwayne Bowe Agrees to a Five-Year Contract with Kansas CIty
It’s absurd that Bowe has been among the five most productive receivers in the NFL over the last five years. After all, he’s had a decent starting quarterback only once during that span (Matt Cassel in 2010). Just how good would Bowe be with an above-average quarterback?
Well, we are going to get a first-hand look at that this upcoming season with Alex Smith joining the team. We saw just how good Michael Crabtree started to perform in San Francisco beginning about midway through the 2011 season. If Bowe can see his numbers increase by just 15-20 percent, we are looking at a top-five fantasy performer. That’s what I am expecting in ‘13.
Michael Vick Returns to the Philadelphia Eagles
My long time readers know that I am not a fan of Vick as a viable fantasy option. He turns the ball over way too much and isn’t consistent enough to be counted on weekly. The change in offensive scheme under Chip Kelly might lead some to the false assumption that Vick will be a decent fantasy play in ‘13. Don’t do it, people.
There are so many better fantasy options out there at the quarterback position. If you can sit there and name 11 quarterbacks that Vick is better than, I will give you the biggest possible cookie. Seriously, it isn’t even close here.
Chip Kelly Hired by the Philadelphia Eagles
While this hiring won’t have much of an impact on Vick (see above), it should help us draw a conclusion about LeSean McCoy and his fantasy worth. I had the former Pro Bowl running back as my No. 1 overall fantasy player heading into the 2012 season. A combination of injuries and misuse pretty much made me look foolish there.
Though, it is important to note that under Kelly’s spread offense, “Shady” should find himself as one of the top fantasy producers this upcoming season. He does great in space and can catch the ball extremely well out of the backfield. I am expecting big things from McCoy in ‘13.
Colin Kaepernick Alone by "The Bay"
Unless you expect Scott Tolzien to challenge Kaepernick for the 49ers' starting job in training camp. it's a safe bet that Kaepernick will be running the show throughout the season. This isn't me going out on a limb here. After all, rarely does a Super Bowl quarterback lose his job the next season.
Instead, it's important for a couple reasons. Should Kaepernick struggle out of the gate, he won't be looking behind his back and see Alex Smith throwing on the sideline. This takes an incredible amount of pressure off Kaepernick. Secondly, he will be thrown out there on a weekly basis, even if he struggles. This is important for fantasy owners simply because they can expect the rising phenom to actually put up 4,500 total yards and over 30 touchdowns without fear of him getting benched, no matter how many times he "may" turn the ball over. While I don't expect Kaepernick to struggle much in '13, it's still important to look at this.