As a Darren McFadden owner and Kool-Aid drinker, I had hoped that Oakland’s Week 5 bye would solve some of its running game woes.  In Week 6, Mcfadden offered up a reasonable outing versus the Falcons with just under 100 combined yards and a touchdown.  However, when McFadden failed to do much against the very soft run defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars the following week, the fantasy community erupted with concerns and talk about run DMC’s fantasy outlook for the rest of the season. Talk renewed about how McFadden may just be a somewhat ineffective runner in his team’s new zone blocking scheme. (His success, historically, came under a power blocking scheme.)

However, as I was reading the 1,000th tweet on the topic in my timeline and considering McFadden’s future this season, a thought occurred to me:  What if McFadden doesn’t get better?

That thought took hold as I became curious…What if he doesn’t get better? What if he just can’t perform up to his talent level in a zone blocking scheme? What if, for the rest of the season, McFadden continues to produce at the exact same level he’s been producing at? 

So let’s take a look, together, at what McFadden’s rest of season numbers might look if all he does is maintain his current level of production.

Thus far in 2012, McFadden is averaging 21.4 touches per game, with 17.2 carries and 4.2 receptions. One those touches, he’s averaging 3.1 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per reception. Pulling out my handy dandy calculator (app,) I find that he should average in the vicinity of 53 yards on the ground and 28 yards in the air. Those yardage totals would go along with his current touchdown pace (.34 per game.) 

So around 81 combined yards a game with a touchdown every third game…Not gaudy numbers. Not numbers that will single-handedly win you your league. Certainly not the numbers you thought you were drafting when you took McFadden. However, all is not lost either. In ESPNs standard scoring those numbers still give us an average of over 10 points a game. 

My (extremely non) fancy math calculations show that McFadden, continuing his per-game averages, would score 162 fantasy points this season while putting up around 1300 total yards and scoring five and half touchdowns.  (Side note:  I’m not sure how you score half a touchdown.  Probably the same way you have half a kid or eat half a slice of pumpkin pie.)

162 fantasy points. In 2011, that would have put him at RB #17.  In 2010, he’d have finished similarly as RB #18. Comparing those numbers to 2009 gives us a slightly better result, when he’d have finished as RB #12. Trends for 2012 give us no reason to think that those numbers wouldn’t finish with similar results this year.

Remember, this whole time I’ve only been talking about standard scoring.  In PPR?  He’s on pace to catch over 65 balls this year.  Only four running backs caught more than that – in 2009 through 2011 COMBINED.

It may be kind of ridiculous it is to project a running back for numbers based off a career high mark in touches per game.  (He averaged just under 17 touches per game in his breakout campaign of 2010.)  However, he’s also currently averaging nearly a yard and a half under his career yards per carry…and over three and a half yards under his career yards per reception.  He’s performing well under his career averages in those categories.  Heck, if he finishes the season at his current marks of yards per carry and reception, both would represent career low-water marks for any one season.

So it’s not hard to imagine those numbers going up and honestly, I’m not sure I can imagine them getting any lower.  Basically, then, what we’re looking at here is McFadden’s statistical floor for this season.  1300 yards and five and half touchdowns.  (There’s that damn half again.)

For sake of conversation, if both his YPC and YPR go up by half a yard - which are not extravagant increases given his talent level and historical data – that would give him enough of a bump in fantasy points to make him a top ten running back in both 2009 and 2011.

I asked the question earlier:  What if McFadden doesn’t get better?  Well, if McFadden doesn’t get better – if he stays healthy and maintains his exact level of production, he’ll likely finish the season as a mid-range or high-end running back #2 on your fantasy team.

One of the funny things about those yards per touch stats, too…They’re greatly skewed by dramatic events. He may be currently averaging 3.1 yards a carry, but if he had one more long run in there – say a 50 yard touchdown run.  His yards per carry would jump up a full half a yard. I’d also be estimating him with another two and half touchdowns by year’s end. It doesn’t take much for McFadden’s statistical averages to improve. He doesn’t have to get better on every play.  He just needs to add one or two more big plays to bring them up.

Wrapping things up, there are a few things in our favor here:
   • He’s already past his bye.
   • Oakland doesn’t have much else on offense.  He should continue to be highly involved in games.
   • These numbers are his floor, assuming he stays healthy.
   • His upside from there is still to be a top five RB any given week
   • Oakland’s upcoming schedule is extremely friendly to running backs.
   • The most likely scenario for his yards per carry: They go up
   • The most likely scenario for his yards per reception:  They go up.
   • The most likely scenario for his touchdown production:  It goes up.

So…maybe it’s not quite what you hoped when you drafted him, but the pre-season expectation ship sailed a long time ago.  Welcome to reality… You have a guy who will perform at least as a solid RB #2…If not dramatically improve and give you his best performances when you need them most – down the stretch.  That, my friends, is a running back worth owning.