The 2013 class of rookie quarterbacks absolutely pales in comparison to its 2012 predecessor.
As such, these first-year NFL gunslingers don’t offer value in any way commensurate with the ones that came before them—both on the gridiron and in the realm of fantasy football.
E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson are the three QBs with the best chance at logging extended playing time. The remaining seven taken in this year’s draft will be riding the bench behind established starters and should thus remain off your fantasy squad.
But what about Manuel, Smith, and Wilson? Where should you value them in both re-draft and dynasty leagues?
E.J. Manuel, Round 1 (No. 16 Overall), Buffalo Bills
The first quarterback selected in 2013 should not be the first one taken in fantasy drafts.
Manuel will compete with six-year journeyman Kevin Kolb for the No. 1 job in Buffalo. The rookie’s opening-round status—despite his Round 3 capabilities—will compel the Bills’ coaching staff to insert him in the starting lineup in Year 1.
The Bills feature a dynamic array of weapons on offense. Running back C.J. Spiller returns from a 1,703-yards from scrimmage campaign, wideout Steve Johnson from a 1,000-yard receiving output and Fred Jackson, Scott Chandler and T.J. Graham from solid overall seasons of their own. The offensive line took a hit with the loss of left guard Andy Levitre but should be strong enough to keep Manuel upright.
Assuming Manuel lands the gig at least by mid-season, how much production should we expect and where does that place him with regards to fantasy value?
In a word—very little. Manuel doesn’t offer much worth above the final two rounds in standard re-draft leagues. When it comes to dynasty, Manuel deserves consideration in the later rounds with the expectation that he produces in Year 3.
Geno Smith, Round 2 (No. 39 Overall), New York Jets
Projecting statistical numbers for any New York Jet is a curious business. After all, this squad is the least talented and most unproven group in all of football.
As it relates to Smith, well, you can probably infer where we’re going with this.
Like Manuel before him, Smith will battle with an established, yet unremarkable veteran. Mark Sanchez is coming off a 2012 campaign in which he registered the worst total QBR out of the 36 QBs rated (23.4). Fans have been calling for his head for some time, and will undertake an all-out mutiny if the coaching staff don’t comply.
It’s conceivable that the Jets will fall to the superior Buccaneers and Patriots, followed by a loss to a Bills team with a revamped defense in Week 3. At 0-3, there’s just not any way Smith isn’t inserted as the starter.
Outside of Santonio Holmes, Smith won’t have any weapons in which to throw in 2013. Chris Ivory was a nice offseason pickup, but isn’t capable of serving as an every-down back and security blanket for the rookie QB. The right side of the offensive line is in shambles as well.
Owners in re-draft leagues should pass on Smith entirely this season. Dynasty participants, meanwhile, can find decent value in the mid to late rounds—that is, if they can hold on to Smith until 2016.
Tyler Wilson, Round 4 (No. 112 Overall), Oakland Raiders
If healthy, the Raiders will prove plenty capable on the offensive side of the ball. Question is, will Wilson be a part of it in 2013?
Wilson is involved in yet another QB battle with a veteran player. He’ll compete with the experienced—albeit minimally—Matt Flynn for the starting role. Early reports have indicated that Wilson is performing well and remains a viable contender.
The big-armed former Razorback would have the services of wideout Denarius Moore, tight end Brandon Myers and running back Darren McFadden, a fellow star at the University of Arkansas. They just must stay on the field for Wilson to accumulate any legitimate numbers.
Wilson offers some intriguing potential in the fantasy realm. In a 14-team re-draft league, making him your final selection could pay dividends as a late-round steal in 2013. Wilson has the big, pro-style arm that could foster productivity sooner rather than later. As with every other rookie quarterback, target him in the later rounds in dynasty leagues.
Final Thoughts
The quarterback position exemplified the 2013 draft that was rife with quality, but not necessarily elite prospects. The E.J. Manuel’s, Geno Smith’s and Tyler Wilson’s of the world are just not the type of franchise QBs that emerged from the NCAA last year. These field generals may in time come to embody something special. It could even be argued that the same applies to guys like Matt Barkley and Landry Jones.
At the end of the day, fantasy owners should be wary about drafting any QB from this class—especially if one would expect immediate production.
Follow me on Twitter @jlevitt16