Who Represents Better Value, Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick?

By Jonathan Munshaw on Sunday, June 1st 2014
Who Represents Better Value, Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick?

For the rest of their careers, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick will always be compared to each other. They both took the reigns over as starters in the same year, both are running quarterbacks, they both have similar body types (though Wilson is shorter) and both of their teams play in the NFC West.

This comparison is really coming to a head this offseason. Now that they have both had a chance to develop their skills (Wilson is coming off a Super Bowl win and Kaepernick has played in one Super Bowl and one NFC Championship game) fantasy owners will have to decide who’s best to draft.

There’s a debate to be had about who is the better pro quarterback, but in fantasy football, let’s look at three categories to determine who is better to draft this summer: What they’ve done in the past, what their seasons are looking like this year and which of them carries more value in fantasy drafts.

 

What They’ve Done in Fantasy

To date, Kaepernick and Russell have put up pretty similar numbers. Last season, Wilson only scored two more total touchdowns than Kapepernick, and finished with just under 200 more passing yards.

They were also both only separate by 15 yards in the rushing game. From a fantasy perspective, they finished 8th and 9th among quarterbacks in total fantasy points, with Wilson edging Kaepernick by just six points. Wilson was a much more consistent player than Kaepernick, too, pulling in a 56 percent in our consistency rating (paid subscription required) compared to Kaepernick’s 44 percent.

In 2012, Kaepernick started just eight games in the regular season after taking over for Alex Smith in San Francisco, while Wilson played in all 16 games that season. Wilson finished his rookie campaign 10th among quarterbacks in total fantasy points, with Kaepernick finishing down at 25th because he came in halfway through the season.

Had Kaepernick played in all 16 games, he was averaging 21.76 fantasy points per game, and he could have scored 348.12 total points that season, which would have put him as the best overall quarterback that year. It’s a little unrealistic to think Kaepernick could have kept up that pace all season, however. Defenses would have eventually figured him out, and two of his five rushing touchdowns that season came in single-play situations when he wasn’t starting.

So, this is basically a push. There’s no way to really know what Kaepernick could have done in 2012 if he played all 16 games, but somewhere in the six or seven range in total points would be about right, which would put him ahead of Wilson, but Wilson pulls back because of his consistency and reliability in 2013.

 

2014 Outlook

Wilson has the better overall team because of Seattle’s defense, but Kaepernick isn’t far behind. And, from a fantasy perspective, Kaepernick gets the advantage here because of what’s available to him. Wilson lost Golden Tate, who led the team in receiving yards last season, and the offensive line in Seattle is still a concern after failing to get any sort of consistency last season. Russell Okung missed half the season, and his replacement Paul McQuistan left in free agency.

Potential fantasy owners of Wilson will like seeing Percy Harvin’s potential big play ability, but Harvin has played just a total of 10 regular season games in the last two seasons between the Seahawks and the Vikings. If Harvin misses any time, the Seahawks are left with Doug Baldwin, Sidney Rice and Jermaine Kearse as their three best receivers, which is bad news for a fantasy quarterback.

Seattle is also a run-first offense with Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, which takes away from Wilson’s fantasy value as long as Lynch continues to perform at a high level.

Meanwhile, Kaepernick gets the ageless Frank Gore on his roster, along with the younger Kendall Hunter and Carlos Hyde. Hunter and Hyde can both catch out of the backfield. At the tight end position, Vernon Davis is a much better pass catcher than Zach Miller in Seattle, and Kaepernick gets to throw to Anquan Boldin and a now-healthy Michael Crabtree, plus the addition of Stevie Johnson.

The 49ers are going to throw the ball far more than Seattle because of their receiving weapons, and Kaepernick has better pass catchers in the backfield.

Both quarterbacks play in the same division, so schedule here isn’t a factor. Kaepernick just has a better fantasy outlook for this season.

 

Value in Drafts

Although it’s early on in the summer, Kaepernick is being drafted as the 11th quarterback in most drafts, according to FantasyPros. The experts at FantasyPros also rank Kaepernick as the 11th quarterback heading into this season, just two spots higher than Wilson.

In drafts, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler are going between Kaepernick and Russell. To me, that’s way too high for Kaepernick. Cutler does have injury concerns, but when you’re throwing to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, good things are going to happen.

Rivers is coming off one of the best years of his career, and Romo will be airing the ball out to Dez Bryant all season because their defense can’t stop anyone. The FantasyPros rankings just has Romo separating Kaepernick and Wilson. Both Kaepernick and Wilson get their fantasy stocks boosted because they can run, but in drafts, Kaepernick is going ahead of Rivers who finished three spots ahead of him in total fantasy points last year and just one spot ahead of Romo, who threw 10 more touchdowns than Kaepernick last season.

So, who is the best draft value? If you think Kaepernick can step his game back up to where it was in 2012 with his new weapons, then Kaepernick is the better value. If he can get into the 290-fantasy point range, that makes him a top-five fantasy quarterback. Wilson doesn’t have that kind of upside.

But, Wilson is the safer pick. He’s a lock to be one of the 12 best fantasy quarterbacks based on his first two years in the league, and he’s going 28 spots lower than Kaepernick. If it’s me, I’m going with Wilson. Although the upside is there for Kaepernick because of his outlook this season, Wilson has a history of consistency and you can get him in the ninth round of drafts rather than Kaepernick in the late-seventh. 

Stay In Touch

Scores

No NFL games.
No NFL games.
No NFL games.
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy