Why the Houston Texans Should Avoid Taking a Quarterback at No. 1 Overall

By Jonathan Munshaw on Monday, April 7th 2014
Why the Houston Texans Should Avoid Taking a Quarterback at No. 1 Overall

The quarterback in the NFL could arguably the single-most important position in all of sports.

In the current state of the league, it is almost impossible to advance to the Super Bowl without at least an above-average quarterback. Anything less than that, and your team will hover around eight or nine wins with a solid roster around the quarterback.

That said, the Houston Texans need to stay away from taking a quarterback No. 1 overall in the draft.

After trading Matt Schaub to the Oakland Raiders, the Texans need a quarterback. Case Keenum showed spots of talent last season, but he doesn’t appear to be the long-term answer in Houston.

But, nothing about Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel or Blake Bortles should compel the Texans to pass up on grabbing a defensive anchor with the first overall pick.

That’s not to say that any of those three guys will never be successful in the NFL – they all have their strong points that could make them starters for a team.

For the Texans though, none of them are worth a No. 1 overall pick. That pick is better spent on Jadaveon Clowney or Khalil Mack.

Before we get to the upside of Mack and Clowney, let’s look at the quarterbacks that have recently been taken in the first round of the draft. Other than Andrew Luck and Cam Newton, none of the quarterbacks taken in the top five or so picks were really no-brainers.

For Luck and Newton, they were by far and away the best talents in their respective drafts at the time. This is not the case for Bridegwater or Bortles, who are both predicted to go to Houston with the first pick (Bridgewater for Derrik Klassen and Bortles for Ryan Ratty).

Last season, E.J. Manuel was fine going later in the first round to the Bills. At that spot, you don’t feel like you are spending the same value that you have at No. 1.

In 2011, as I said, Newton was a no-brainer for No. 1 overall. But at No. 8 was Jake Locker, who hasn’t panned out, Blaine Gabbert who is a backup in San Francisco now at No. 10 and at No. 12, Christian Ponder who could be replaced by a rookie this year in Minnesota.

Sam Bradford is still an unknown talent after being taken No. 1 overall in 2010 because he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and in 2009, Matthew Stafford needs some serious fixing and he was taken No. 1 overall, and Mark Sanchez is now a backup after being taken at No. 5.

2008 was a pretty solid draft for quarterbacks, as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco have panned out, and in 2007, we all know what happened to JaMarcus Russell (same goes for Vince Young and Matt Leinart who are both out of the league now and were taken at No. 3 and 10 overall, respectively in 2006).

Even for Stafford, you could make the case at the time that he had the highest upside heading into the draft. But in this case, Clowney and Khalil both have higher ceilings than Bortles and Bridgewater.

Bortles has the same measurements as Bridgewater (Bortles is slightly taller but their arm length and hand size are almost exactly the same), yet Bridgewater is more athletic, but Bridgewater’s durability could be an issue given his body type (a la Michael Vick).

Clowney is a very raw talent, but drafting him would still fill a need. His ceiling is much higher than Bortles, and for Mack, he is almost a lock to eventually be a Pro-Bowl linebacker.

The Texans already have the makings of a top defense, and adding either of those players would only make it better. They are better off waiting until the second round to take someone like Derek Carr if he falls, who could easily end up having a better career than Bridgewater or Bortles. Even if Carr goes further up in the draft, Jimmy Garoppolo could be a second-round option, or Tajh Boyd even deeper in the draft.

Or, the Texans could trade back (as they’ve been rumored to be looking to do) to take Manziel at No. 4 if they can trade with the Cleveland Browns if they feel inclined to take Bortles at No. 1.

Of the quarterbacks that finished in the top 10 last season in passing touchdowns, only five of them were taken in the first round (Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan).

Talent can come from all kinds of places in the NFL, and this applies to defensive players and quarterbacks.

But the Texans could end up regretting taking a quarterback No. 1 overall when they look back on this draft three years from now. Mack and Clowney are safer picks and have the talent that could take their defense to the next level.

Even if one of them failed, it would have less consequences on the franchise for the long-term than swinging and missing on a quarterback at No. 1.  

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