There is a certain amount of preparation that goes into every fantasy sports draft. No matter the sport, once the draft reaches a certain point knowledge of the draft pool becomes paramount. There shouldn’t be any surprises in the top ten selections no matter the sport.
The perennial cry of “Sh!t happens” can be heard when Tom Brady blows his knee out, Sidney Crosby takes a headshot or if Josh Hamilton falls off the wagon. There will always be injuries in sports, but sometimes a player just sucks. We don’t know what goes on between their ears or off the field, court or rink. There are a ton of factors that can turn a sure thing into a huge bust.
In the NHL there are about five to six can’t miss players and goaltenders. With that said, we have seen a few players fall well short of their previous performances. Claude Giroux is a prime example of a player who was spectacular in 2012 then fell well short of expectations. Giroux had a productive year, but his Philadelphia Flyers missed the playoffs and the new Flyers’ captain wasn’t even close to his production level from the year before.
I happen to think that both Giroux and the Flyers will rebound in the 2013-14 season, but I’ve got five players who will fall from the fantasy elite. They won’t be players that will necessarily suck, but consider yourself warned if you are planning on spending a high draft pick on any of these five.
5. Mike Ribeiro, C, Phoenix Coyotes-The former Canadiens, Stars, and Capitals center has always been talented, there is no question there. The fact is that Ribeiro can’t stay in one place and that is a huge red flag for me. While he (and his wife) cried poor that the Capitals were short changing him this summer, he bolted to Phoenix to play for a team that missed the playoffs last year. While I love Dave Tippett as a coach and think that the Capitals could miss the playoffs this season too, Ribeiro grabbed as much cash as he could on his way out of town. He was a point per game player in Washington, but won’t come close to that type of production for the Coyotes.
4. Dustin Byfuglien, D, Winnipeg Jets-Big Buf has been battling weight issues ever since he came into the league and it seems to be catching up to him. He’s reportedly stacking 300 pounds on top of his skates and that means that the talented defenseman will run out of gas a lot quicker. When he is at a normal playing weight, around 250 lbs., he is one of the top defensemen in the league. With a mediocre roster in Winnipeg and virtually no hope of contending next year, steer clear of the burly Byfuglien in your fantasy draft.
3. Patrick Marleau, C/LW, San Jose Sharks-I was stunned that the Sharks didn’t try to move Marleau this summer. His contract is huge but it expires at the end of next season. He had a productive season overall, but his stats have been on a steady decline over the last four seasons. Given San Jose’s current cap situation (+400,000 over the cap), I assumed that they would be moving one of their older, high dollar veterans. Marleau fits those criteria exactly. He’ll be 34 in September and with declining skills, should be avoided like gas station sushi when you are drafting your fantasy team.
2. Chris Kunitz, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins-Do you ever wonder how many points you could score if you were lucky enough to play on Sidney Crosby’s wing? The correct answer is Chris Kuntz’ 2012 season. He certainly parlayed a career year into a nice contract extension (three years for $11.25 million) but expectations will be much higher for Kunitz to duplicate his success. The benefits of playing with Crosby couldn’t have been more obvious as Kunitz struggled at both ends of the ice when the Penguins’ captain went down with his jaw injury late this season. Buyer beware.
1. Alexander Ovechkin, LW, Washington Capitals-Who knows what got into the Washington captain through the last month and a half of this past season? Something or someone lit a fire under the Russian winger and he ended up as a candidate for the NHL MVP. I see a long season and a less talented Capitals’ roster around Ovechkin. He’s still only 27 (28 in September) but the past few seasons seemed to be really taxing on the former Hart and Ross Trophy winner. He could surprise me, and I hope he does, but I think it will be a long and ugly year for the Washington Capitals and their captain.