2014-2015 Review
Heading in to 2014-2015, the Oilers knew they would be in the hunt. When the calendar flipped to June, Edmonton would be the top name in game. Of course, the hunt they would be in would not be the one for the Stanley Cup, but for the next franchise savior: Connor McDavid. While fellow basement dwellers Buffalo and Arizona clearly tanked their seasons, the perpetually rebuilding Oilers let their young guns play an open, fun style of hockey. The end result meant that Edmonton finished third worst in points, a whopping 12 points ahead of Buffalo. Nevertheless, Edmonton won the draft lottery for the fourth time in the last six years, and McDavid will join some impressive young forwards making Edmonton an exciting team to watch in 2015-2016.
New Additions
Connor McDavid
A lost season in the point standings was all worth it as the Oilers won the McDavid sweepstakes. The helium reserves of planet Earth are significantly dwindled thanks to the hot air in McDavid’s hype balloon, but by virtually all accounts he is the real deal. Time will tell how he handles playing against grown men, but the next Sidney Crosby will jump right into a top six role, likely playing with Taylor Hall and Nail Yakupov. He will have his ups and downs in 2015-2016, but McDavid is the kind of player that makes you buy a ticket to see him in person.
Cameron Talbot
When a team leads the league in goals allowed, changes in net usually follow. It’s not fair to pin Ben Scrivens as a scapegoat, seeing as how Edmonton’s defensive group was AHL caliber last season, but the Oilers needed to make a move to keep up appearances. Talbot filled in admirably for Henrik Lundqvist while The King was hurt last season, posting an absurd .926 save percentage over 36 games.
He’s 28 years old and he has just 57 games of NHL experience, and his minor league track record don’t support his phenomenal numbers so far in his career. He’s going to be busy in Edmonton and he won’t touch that .926 again, but if he can stand up to the high workload and put up at least league average numbers, Edmonton will gain significant points in the standings.
Andrej Sekera
Traded from Carolina to Los Angeles last year, the cap crunched Kings couldn’t keep Sekera. Edmonton, starved for defensive help, gets a puck moving top four defenseman at a reasonable cost. He’ll play as many minutes as he can handle and should see a healthy amount of assists, but the plus/minus won’t be pretty.
Griffin Reinhart
The fourth overall pick of the 2012 draft couldn’t crack the Islander NHL roster, but at 21 years old, the Oilers took a flyer. He might not make the top six this season, but he’s worth the risk of couple high draft picks for the defensively deficient Oilers.
Key Losses
Richard Bachman
The Oilers did not lose any players of significance. The backup goalie from the leagues most scored upon team will let it ride and roll on down the highway to be takin’ care of business in Vancouver.
Biggest Strength
The Top Six
There are going to be a lot of goals scored in Edmonton, and many of them will be scored by the Oilers. With Taylor Hall injured last season, the top line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Benoit Pouliot was very effective. They could stay together for this season, forming a 1A/1B combination with Hall, Connor McDavid and Nail Yakupov on another line. Yakupov has been something of a disappointment, but he played very well towards the end of last season once Hall returned from injury.
With the exception of Pouliot, all of these kids were high draft picks, so the talent level and potential is second to no other team outside of Pittsburgh. It wouldn’t be surprising if this group came out firing to start the season, hits a wall, and then finishes strong due to their collective inexperience, but a fully healthy season from all will make Edmonton a fun team to watch this season.
Biggest Weakness
Defense/Goaltending
As previously mentioned, Edmonton allowed the most goals in the league last season. While Ben Scrivens is no Dominik Hasek and he’s a better goalie than the .890 save percentage he posted last year, it’s pretty crazy to think how many points Edmonton can gain from merely getting league average goaltending. To do a quick and dirty calculation (all things being equal), if Edmonton had a team goals against average of league average at .911 compared to their actual of .888, they would have saved roughly 60 goals – quite a few wins.
Of course, it’s not that simple and the quality of chances allowed were often high quality, but if Cameron Talbot can just give league average numbers, the Oilers should gain wins without changing much else. The problem, however, is the defensive depth is lacking. Sekera should help things, but Justin Schultz hasn’t been the player everyone thought he would be, and the bottom four defense doesn’t move the needle. Remember, the savior of the Minnesota Wild last year, Devan Dubnyk, couldn’t fix Edmonton’s goal differential while he was an Oiler.
Bottom Line
Edmonton probably won’t make the playoffs this year, but a moderate improvement in net would go a long way towards making this team respectable. Their offense is top heavy with an elite top six and poor bottom six, so they aren’t quite ready to compete with the more well rounded teams of the West. The team is still young overall, so there will be ups and downs, but Edmonton should be a fun team to watch with those potent top two lines. Unfortunately, Edmonton has burned us before when it seemed like they were turning the corner on their rebuild, so cautious optimism should be utilized.
Fantasy Slant
Most Overrated: Cameron Talbot
Don’t get me wrong, Talbot will be a serviceable goalie in both the real and fake games, but he’s not going to produce like he did as a backup in New York. The team context is night and day, so wins will be more difficult to come by as well. If he’s available among a lower tier of goalies, pull the trigger, but don’t chase his New York numbers.
Most Underrated: Taylor Hall
It’s somewhat cheap to a former number one overall draft pick as “underrated,” but due to Hall’s injuries over the last few years, he doesn’t get the respect he deserves. Some of the soft tissue injuries are concerning, but hockey is fast game and the reality is anyone can get hurt at any moment. When healthy, Hall is an elite point scorer playing with highly skilled teammates. There’s a good probability that someone in your league was burned after drafting Hall during an injury marred season, but Hall is set up for a huge season and he often comes at a discount.
Biggest Surprise: Nail Yakupov
Speaking of downtrodden former first picks, Yakupov is poised to breakthrough in 2015-2016. Last season, Yakupov found himself playing alongside Taylor Hall after Hall returned from injury in March. The two had a definite chemistry, which resulted in Nail scoring 20 points over the final 28 games of the year. Yakupov also set career highs in goals (14) and points (33) last season, despite shooting just 7.3%. It’s not often that first overall picks lack a scoring touch, so expect his shooting efficiency to pick up.