2014-2015 Review
Heading in to last season, the Panthers were supposed to continue their rebuild. After selecting first overall in the 2014 draft and selecting stud defenseman Aaron Ekblad, expectations were as low as ever for hockey in South Florida. Surprisingly, the Panthers were not only competitive, but they were in the hunt for the playoffs until the waning moments of the regular season. Expediting the rebuild, the Panthers sent draft picks to acquire ageless veteran Jaromir Jagr to join the rush with their young forwards. Brian Campbell had a strong season as his career winds down and he helps along Ekblad, and Roberto Luongo put up numbers in net that the Canucks would have loved to have last season.
New Additions
Reilly Smith
The Panthers acquired Smith from the Bruins on the first day of free agency, effectively a salary cap casualty of Boston (he was used as an incentive to trade for Marc Savard’s contract). Smith has good size and is just 24 years old with 203 career games under his belt, including a 20 goal season 2013-2014. He took a step back last season, however, netting just 13 goals and 27 points while often finding himself next to Patrice Bergeron.
His CF% of 54.9% and his Corsi relative to the quality of competition were strong, no doubt influenced by Bergeron. He should fit in well in with the young Panthers, but if he can’t score playing with Bergeron, he might have a limited ceiling from an offensive standpoint with Florida.
Key Losses
Jimmy Hayes
Boston has always defined itself with physical play and big forwards, so Hayes should fit in well with his new team. Florida will miss his 19 goals from last season, but he wasn’t a core player and there should be enough young depth to cover his loss.
Brad Boyes
Somewhat surprisingly, the Panthers bought out the last season of Boyes’ contract, saving $2.5M of cash. There are cap implications of the buyout, but as the Panthers are not a cap team, the move seemed to have been done to save payroll cash going out and secondarily to give younger players a chance to play more. He’s not an offensive force anymore (14 goals last year), but he is a good driver of play and could have made a nice mentor to the young forward group.
Dan Ellis
The third string goalie heads to Washington, but the lede here is the hope that Robb Tallas will officially be listed on the depth chart. Alas, the Panthers signed Mike McKenna for goalie depth behind Roberto Luongo and Al Montoya.
Biggest Strength
Youth Movement
As previously mentioned, the Panthers were forecasting a low key season in 2014-2015 after picking first overall the previous summer. A strong defensive season overall, led by Brian Campbell’s career resurgence and Aaron Ekblad’s NHL-ready skills, and strong goaltending from Roberto Luongo helped give young forwards a bit of breathing room to develop.
The Panthers got solid contributions from prospects Nick Bjugstad, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Brandon Pirri, and Jimmy Hayes, keeping this young team interesting and competitive. They could use some more blue chips on the blue line and in goal, but the team clearly has a strong core to build around.
Biggest Weakness
Defense/Goaltending
Brian Campbell and Roberto Luongo are 36 and Aaron Ekblad is the only blue chip prospect at either position. The Panthers have a nice system in place which led to some stifling play at times last season, but eventually they will need a talent infusion to carry the team forward. Dmitry Kulikov is solid and will help, and there’s a chance that Mike Matheson makes the team this year and plays well, but the rebuild will focus on these two positions. Heading in to 2015-2016, the Panthers aren’t necessarily deficient at the positions, but they are areas to work on for sure.
Bottom Line
Florida has a solid young core of forwards (and the ageless legend Jaromir Jagr), a top line defenseman for the next 15 years in Aaron Ekblad, and the aging but still solid Roberto Luongo to provide consistency in net. They are headed in the right direction in the East and have accelerated their rebuild thanks to success on the ice. Narrowly missing the playoffs last season, the Panthers should find themselves knocking on the door of a low seed again this year, but ultimately they are still a team in transition.
Fantasy Slant
Most Overrated: Brandon Pirri
Pirri had a bizarre stat line of 22 goals, two assists and 24 points last season in 49 games. Most of his production came down the stretch, opening eyes as the Panthers fought for a playoff spot. His goal production came at an unsustainable 15.9% shooting percentage, and the lack of assists is concerning as he will surely have times when the goals will dry up. Don’t extrapolate his goal numbers from last season over a full year and expect 35 goals. He has a top six role with some talented linemates, so anticipate his goal scoring rate and assists to normalize a bit, leading to something along the lines of a 20 goal, 40 point season.
Most Underrated: Roberto Luongo
He was done dirty in Vancouver and cast off to Florida, where he put up good numbers at the turn of the century. Going in to last season, expectations were low for the 35 year old goalie headed to a rebuilding team, but Luongo played phenomenal with the crease to himself. His .921 save percentage was well above the league average, and kept the Panthers competitive during the year. He’s now 36, so it wouldn’t be fair to expect his elite save percentage to remain, but there’s no reason to expect a full collapse. The Panthers should be a solid team and he’s an unquestioned starter, someone to target on draft day.
Biggest Surprise: Aleksander Barkov
When it comes to the Panthers on draft day, most people probably focus on Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad. Don’t overlook Aleksander Barkov, the 20 year old center who held his own in his second taste of the NHL last season.
Recording 16 goals and 36 points over 71 games, Barkov centers the top line with Huberdeau and Jaromir Jagr as well as the top power play unit. With 125 games of NHL experience, the young center could be poised for a breakout campaign in his third season, the year things usually “click” for forwards. You’ll be seeing his name plenty in eDraft’s NHL DFS articles this year.