Steven Stamkos to Avoid Open Market, Resign in Tampa Bay

By Ben Benwell on Thursday, June 30th 2016
Steven Stamkos to Avoid Open Market, Resign in Tampa Bay

The most coveted unrestriced free agent of the off-season appears to be off the market, as according to Bob McKenzie, Steven Stamkos has opted to stay in Tampa Bay and will agree to a new contract with the Lightning:

The deal is reported to be an eight year, $68M deal (per ESPN's Pierre LeBrun), which will carry an annual cap hit of $8.5M (AAV). It's a great deal for the Lightning, as Stamkos could have certainly leveraged more money against Tampa Bay had he reached the open market and wanted to play hardball -- the Maple Leafs would very likely have offered something like seven years (max years allowed) and $10.5M per season. In the end it was really a two horse race between the Maple Leafs and Lightning, though teams such as the Red Wings, Sabres, and Canucks had their names mentioned as aggressive suitors for talented forward.

Working in Tampa Bay's favor was that they are the second best team in the Eastern Conference, and they are set up to stay competitive for the forseeable future. Also, the Lightning were able to give Stamkos an extra year on the contract that other teams would not have been able to had they signed Stamkos as an unrestricted free agent. The lack of an income tax in Florida could also mean that Stamkos nets more money in the bank, but between the 'jock tax' and his Canadian citizenship, this is probably a bit overblown as a factor.

Toronto would have likely offered Stamkos the most money in terms of salary, and he would have likely received some more lucrative endorsement offers by playing in his hometown market -- the largest hockey market in the world, incidentally. However, Toronto is a rebuilding team and are at the mercy of their (very talented) prospect pool development -- or lack thereof. Had Stamkos signed a seven year deal with the Leafs, he could have likely been near the end of the contract before Toronto became a legitimate contender.

The other teams in the running for Stamkos had their fleas, as Detroit is in limbo while they cling to fighting for a low playoff seed while refusing to rebuild a crumbling infrastructure, and Buffalo is further behind Toronto in their respective rebuilds.

Tampa Bay is now set up to remain an immediate contender in the Eastern Conference, though they will likely need to move a big contract in the next few years to afford upcoming deals for younger players such as Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin. Look for Ben Bishop's name to be a popular one any time a team is in need of goalie over the next few years. Stamkos, of course, is an elite level talent that rarely sniffs the open market. Take a look at his average points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play over the last five years (minimum 2500 minutes TOI), per http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com :

 

 

That list is a list with some very, very good players on it (and Thomas Vanek?). Though Stamkos hasn't hit the magic 50 goal mark since his 60 goal campaign in 2011-2012, he notched 43 goals two seasons ago and 36 last year. He's a career 17.2% shooter and turns just 27 in February, meaning he should stay an elite sniper for at least half of this contract. Even if he falls off a bit over the last three or four years of the deal, an $8.5M cap hit isn't terribly unfriendly to work with.

Assuming the blod clot issue that Stamkos dealt with at the tail end of last season is managed properly -- and one would assume Tampa Bay's medical team performed every relevant analysis known to man and some that aren't -- the Lightning will be loaded up front for years to come.

For fantasy purposes, Stamkos's value remains a top of the draft talent and he's someone that will likely find his way on to your DFS team more often than not. With the Triplets line a proven success, Stamkos will likely see playing time with Jonathan Drouin this upcoming season. After a nasty rift early in the season, Drouin stepped up when Stamkos went down with a blood clot in his arm and proved that he is a high-end young talent. The two of them, along with Alex Killorn or whoever rounds out the line, will certainly have stacking appeal in DFS, and the Tampa Bay top six remains a nasty group for opposing teams to scheme against.

 

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