With Vegas new Stanley Cup odds out, I decided which were the teams that were being overlooked as possible Stanley Cup Contenders. In this article, I will write about who Vegas is overestimating. These teams either are not Stanley Cup contenders even though the odds say they are, are bubble playoff teams that could easily not make it or are cellar dwellers getting more credit than they are worth.
Minnesota Wild: 13/1
The Wild are certainly not short on star power. Zach Parise, Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek and Ryan Suter are some of the best players in the NHL. What the team does lack, though, is depth. Ryan Suter has to play almost 27 minutes a game in the playoffs last year to keep his team competitive. That number was actually less than the 29:16 he logged in the regular season. Those numbers are not likely to go down, as the team is expected to start the under experienced Mike Reilly and Mathew Dumba. Will the extra minutes finally cause Suter to show some wear and tear?
On offense, the situation is very similar. Zach Parise, Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek were racking in the points while the rest of the team was not that productive. They were the only players to have more than 40 points last year on the Wild. The team finished 12th last year in goals, which is average but not an elite level offense.
The team will be hoping that Devan Dubnyk can have a similar season to the one he had last season. He had a .936 SV% and picked up 27 wins in only 39 games played. While those stats would give Wild fans reason to be excited about their new starting goaltender, it is alarming that it is so far above his career average. If you count overtime losses as losses, which they are, Dubnyk has a losing record over his career. His .914 SV% is also indicative of an average starter who had a career year last year. Simply too much went right for the Wild to expect a similar year this year. That is why I think the team will be disappointed, considering Vegas has them as tied for sixth for most likely to win the Cup.
Washington Capitals: 18/1
Expectations are high for the Capitals this season, but should they be? The team lost their leading scorer in the playoffs last year in Joel Ward, who also provided the team with grit. While they more than replaced his scoring with T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams, neither of those players are grinders that could play on the top six like Ward can. The team will continue to be a top-10 scoring team, but they will not get the same defensive play out of their forwards this year.
That is bad news considering that their leader in +/- last year, Mike Green, is now a Detroit Red Wing. The Capitals top two-paid defensemen now are a couple of Penguins castaways, Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen. John Carlson could see time on the first line, but over the last four years he has proven to be wildly inconsistent in his play. With a forward group that won’t offer as much help defensively, expect more chances against Braden Holtby.
It is also an uncertainty how Holtby will respond after a punishing 73 game season a year ago. The most games he had played before last season was 48, and it is possible the added workload could cause problems for Holtby. With the uncertainties in front of him as well, giving the Capitals the tie for 10th best odds to win the Cup seems a little too optimistic.
Winnipeg Jets: 22/1
A surprise team to make the playoffs last year, the Jets will have the attention of the league next year. While the team did not have a 30-goal scorer, they did have three 20-goal scorers. Still though, the team was 16th in GPG last year, and the team didn't make any big moves in the off-season.
The Jets will have to hope that the combination of Tyler Myers and Dustin Byfuglien comes through for them again. They were the team’s top pair in the playoffs, after playing well in the regular season. The pair wasn't enough against the Ducks, however, as they combined for a -6 +/- and were sweep in the first round. The two have shown over the years that they could be inconsistent, that being the reason the Sabres and Blackhawks traded them away.
Their starting goaltender Ondrej Pavelec has also shown to be inconsistent over his career. He has a losing record, and a .908 SV% which would show that he is a below average starting goalie. Last year, however, he had a career year with a 2.28 GAA and a .92 SV% that was by far his best. If Pavelec comes crashing down to Earth and if the defense starts looking shaky, the offense won’t be able to keep the team afloat.
Edmonton Oilers: 45/1
After looking through the Vegas odds, I have to say that almost all of it seems pretty reasonable. I could even see a scenario where the teams above could make the playoffs and live up to their Vegas hype. However, I take exception to the Edmonton Oilers having about the same odds as the Boston Bruins and Dallas Stars. What has Edmonton done that suggests that the team will be anything more than a bottom dweller like they have the past decade. While the offense may have star power in Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle, the team lacks depth as only two players got 40 or more points last year.
Their defense is just bad. While Andrej Sekera is a fine pick up, it won’t be enough to turn around a defense that gave up 3.4 GPG last year. Nikita Nikitin and Justin Schultz will have to play significant minutes this season after getting exposed last season. Griffin Reinhart is a young prospect that is expected to start next season, so the team will have to figure out how to deal with his growing pains of transitioning into the NHL.
The goalie situation in Edmonton is precarious to say the least. They could have three different goalies start for them in the season opener, and that is never a good sign. Ben Scrivens returns after a brutal season where he went 15-26-11, had a 3.16 GAA and posted a .890 SV%. If he is the starter again, that is not good news for the Oilers. All in all, this team just has not improved enough to say they will not be cellar dwellers this season.
Buffalo Sabres: 85/1
The Sabres are also expected to make a serious jump according to Vegas odds, putting them ahead of five teams. I would be surprised to see this team finish outside of the bottom five. Their two best offensive weapons, Ryan O'Reilly and Evander Kane, are known to be off the ice problems. They face the chance that their two best forwards could end up going rogue and seriously hampering their chances this season. Jack Eichel will be a star one-day, but he still has a massive adjustment going from the NCAA to the NHL.
Last year, the Sabres gave up the second most goals against, only the Oilers had more, and they are facing the possibility of a similar kind of situation happening to them again this year. Zach Bogosian is a good player, but he just doesn't have the help around him to make this defense good.
The team also faces uncertainty in net. Robin Lehner gave up over 3 GAA in his last two seasons. Chad Johnson had a .889 SV% last year, and doesn't look to be starting goalie material either. There is just too much that can go wrong for this team to think that they will finish outside of the bottom five this season.