Some early round results are in from the 2012 Cincinnati Masters and both Alexandr Dolgopolov and Philipp Kohlschreiber are out. However, players who are seeded in the top eight in the event have yet to see any action. Two of those high seeds include World No. 2 Novak Djokovic and World No. 1 Roger Federer.

Djokovic and Federer are incredibly tight in terms of ranking points heading into the 2012 Cincinnati Masters. Just 75 points separate the two players and the World No. 1 ranking is on the line in Cincinnati this week. Djokovic, who made the final at last year’s event, can gain 400 ranking points with a title. Federer, who only made the quarters last season, has just 180 ranking points to defend.

Any scenario that sees Djokovic gain more than 75 points in the tournament relative to Federer's net gain or loss would see the Serb retake the top ranking on tour. Djokovic winning a title would certainly help, but it would not guarantee the World No. 1 ranking for the Serb. If, for example, Djokovic won the title but faced Federer in the final, the rankings would remain the same.

Djokovic could regain the top spot on tour without winning a title. If he made the final he would not gain or lose any ranking points. That would mean that if Federer lost more than 75 Djokovic would ascend to the top spot again. Essentially Federer would need to fall in the round of 16 to lose more than 75 points.

Djokovic enters the Cincinnati Masters with some momentum, but perhaps it shouldn’t be overstated. The Serb won the Canadian Masters over the weekend but then the event wasn’t as stacked as it normally is. Players were tired from the Olympics and talented players fell early in the draw or missed the event entirely.

There is plenty of room to be skeptical of Djokovic right now despite the title in Toronto last week. He went medalless in London and before that event he hadn’t won a title since Miami. It’s not totally fair to expect him to duplicate his 2011 season in terms of wins and losses through the first eight months of 2012. However Djokovic’s prestige took a major hit when he lost the No. 1 ranking to someone over the age of 30.

Djokovic has something to prove in Cincinnati, a tournament that he has never won before. I would be surprised if he fell ahead of the semifinals but late in the tournament, he could suffer a setback against either Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro, or Federer, the last three players to beat the Serb. All things considered, I think Federer is the player to beat in Ohio with his fluffy draw and week of rest behind him.

Prediction: Federer wins the title.