ATP Tokyo (2012 Japan Open) has produced a moderately surprising final. Milos Raonic, the sixth seed in the tournament, will face Kei Nishikori, the tournament's eighth seed. Raonic is into the final having upended Andy Murray in the semis while Nishikori, the home favorite, defeated Marcos Baghdatis on Saturday.
There is not much between Nishikori and Raonic at this point in their careers. They are just one year apart in age, Nishikori is ranked 17th while Raonic is 15th, and both players do their best on the hard court surface. Heading into the final in Tokyo, the two players have not yet faced one another although in the years ahead they promise to clash numerous times.
Raonic has to have a ton of confidence heading into the final. He played a resilient match against the reigning US Open champion in the semifinals, saving two match points before taking down the victory in a final set tiebreaker. Raonic also saved a match point in the quarters as he eliminated Janko Tipsarevic on Friday.
Commenting on his success in Tokyo so far, Raonic is quoted as saying that a recent change in his game has made a difference. “Here (in Tokyo), from the first match, I’ve been more aggressive, have come in as much as I can when I’ve created the opportunities and play under my terms more so than just waiting around," he said. Raonic's reward for his efforts is his sixth career ATP final appearance, having gone 3-2 in his last five.
Nishikori enters the final as a home favorite, a factor that could put Japan's top player under pressure. Nishikori has just one career title to his credit but it was won ages ago back at Delray Beach 2008, prior to the injury that prevented him from competing during most of 2009. The Japanese star spoke about playing in the Tokyo final and of the fact that it's been a long while since he's claimed a title.
“It’s an incredible feeling because I’m in a final in my home country,” Nishikori said. “I didn’t think I would be in the final, so I’m very happy. I haven’t won a tournament in four years so hopefully I can win tomorrow.”
The winner of the ATP Tokyo final will reach new heights as neither player has won a match of the magnitude of a 500 series event final. The question with Nishikori is can he rise to the occasion under the spotlight of his home country's media and fans? The question with Raonic is does he have enough left in the tank after facing and defeating two top ten players in two fiercely competitive matches? Sunday's final (2pm Tokyo time) will answer those questions and my prediction is that Raonic will be the player claiming the title in Tokyo based on his better success rates in ATP finals.
Prediction: Raonic straight up (bet365 8/13).
Player quotes courtesy of an ATPWorldTour.com recent article.