The verified Twitter account for ATPWorldTour.com recently tweeted that Rafael Nadal would be missing both the Paris Masters and the ATP World Tour Finals in London due to his persistent knee problems. The Spaniard has not contested a match since losing to Lukasz Rosol in the second round of Wimbledon 2012. With the ATP season ending following the World Tour Finals, Nadal is now expected to be out of action until at least January.
There are some minor south Pacific events scheduled to take place in the very early parts of the 2013 season however they are not events that Nadal typically participates in. The current World No. 4 has not contested any of the 250 level events in Brisbane, Auckland, or Sydney since the 2007 season although he has played in ATP Doha in recent years. That event aside you have to wonder if the Spaniard will remain idle until the start of the 2013 Australian Open.
If that ends up being the case then Nadal's ranking is not likely to change that much. His current ranking is heavily affected by clay court results with titles at the 2012 French Open, the 2012 Monte Carlo Masters and the 2012 Rome Masters. Ahead of the Aussie, Nadal only has 290 ranking points to defend: 200 from the 2011 ATP World Tour Finals and 90 from ATP Doha 2012. That means that Nadal should still be ranked fourth in the world at the start of the Australian Open in January.
However if Nadal does not play well at Melbourne Park, he could definitely start sliding down the top ten. Following an appearance in the final in 2012, Nadal will have 1200 ranking points to defend at the 2013 Australian Open. The hard court slams have never been his absolute bread and butter although he does have individual titles from both Melbourne and Flushing. Looking ahead, you have to wonder if Nadal's current knee injury will give David Ferrer or Tomas Berdych a chance to leap over the Spaniard in the rankings, the two players currently ranked 5th and 6th on tour respectively.