When reasonably expecting top-10 production from your starting running back, it's important to take a few different factors into account. Some, such as offensive line play and the level of the team's passing game, are common knowledge. Then you have the running back by committee approach that certain teams use. An example of this would be the Cleveland Browns, who boast three talented young running backs in Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West and rookie Duke Johnson. In a vacuum, all three would provide tremendous fantasy upside. Together, as a committee, none can be seen as reliable RB1 options.
That's going to be the focus of this in-depth piece.
The interesting thing to look at here is that there are only a couple viable RB1 options on this list. Jeremy Hill will likely get a vast majority of the carries in Cincinnati with Giovani Bernard acting as a third-down back and receiving specialist. Likewise, Carlos Hyde is the presumptive starter in San Francisco with Reggie Bush playing a similar role to what he did in New Orleans early in his career.
Looking at the "backups" on the 12 teams listed, only Charles Sims, C.J. Spiller, David Johnson and Shane Vereen are viable RB2 or FLEX options. With Spiller and Vereen, that's mainly due to their value in PPR leagues.
When looking at the teams listed above, it's also important to look at the run-pass mix we saw from them last season.
Offensive Balance | Team | Rush Attempts | Percentage Run |
| Cardinals | 397 | 39.4 |
| Falcons | 372 | 35.9 |
| Bengals | 492 | 48.3 |
| Browns | 477 | 47.2 |
| Jaguars | 360 | 36.4 |
| Patriots | 438 | 40.8 |
| Saints | 406 | 37.1 |
| Giants | 449 | 41.3 |
| Jets | 507 | 48.2 |
| 49ers | 470 | 47.0 |
| Buccaneers | 353 | 37.5 |
| Titans | 356 | 38.7 |
This next section with look at where the five-most noteworthy teams on this list stand in terms of fantasy production from the running back position. Not as a total entity, but rather focusing on which players may find themselves relevant in the fantasy football world.
Tier 1 (RB1 Options)
Cincinnati Bengals: Jeremy Hill accounted for 45 percent of Cincinnati's rush attempts last year, meaning that he touched the ball about a quarter of the time. That's a pretty large number for a running back that was a part of a committee aprroach with Giovani Bernard. It's also one of the reasons he finished as the 10th-best fantasy running back in 2014. On the other hand, Bernard's receiving ability enabled him to finish as the 18th-best fantasy running back while touching the ball 21 percent of the the time. With Hue Jackson returning as offensive coordinator, there's no reason to believe any of this will change in 2015. Though, Bernard's fantasy production might dip a bit more if the Bengals decide to give Hill more than 25 percent of the team's touches on offense.
San Francisco 49ers: From everything we are hearing, it looks like Carlos Hyde will be the unquestioned starter when Week 1 comes calling. Though, it's not yet known the exact role running backs will play in the team's new offense under coordinator Geep Chryst. That in and of itself makes Hyde a somewhat risky pick as a bottom-end RB1 option. Last year saw 49ers running backs touch the ball on 40 percent of the team's offensive plays. Though, San Francisco only ran an average of 62 plays per game.
With a new focus on creating an up-tempo unit, that number should increase to well over 70, creating more opportunities for Hyde in the process. And while Reggie Bush will certainly play a role here in passing downs, Hyde will get a vast majority of the work on base offensive sets. Forty percent of 70 plays equates to 28 touches per game. Considering Frank Gore accounted for 54 percent of San Francisco's rush attempts last season, the base line figure here has to be 15-17 touches per game for Hyde. The one factor playing even more to Hyde's advantage is the fact that San Francisco attempted to limit Gore's touches in order to keep the then 30-year-old running back fresh. This won't be an issue for Hyde in 2015, likely indicating that he'll get an average of 20 touches per game.
Tier 2 (RB2 Options)
Arizona Cardinals: This is going to be an interesting battle to watch in camp. Ideally, Arizona would like to see David Johnson handle the primary ball-carrier duties. Though, it's really hard to limit Andre Ellington based on the talent he's displayed in his first two seasons in the NFL. He's averaging 5.1 yards per touch, but is only tallying 14.9 touches per game during his two-year career. That's a number unlikely to increase with Johnson's presence on the roster.
As it relates to Johnson, it's going to turn out one of two ways. Either the rookie will break out big time, or the Cardinals will hold him back due to potential training camp struggles down the road, especially in pass protection. Arizona running backs touched the ball on 44 percent of the team's offensive plays last season. If that percentage is split between Ellington and Johnson this year, it equates to about 13.7 touches per player. Until we know further how Arizona plans to split the carries, it's hard to gauge where either player will be from a fantasy perspective. On that note, Ellington comes in as a reliable RB2, while Johnson shouldn't be depended on as anything more than a FLEX option.
New Orleans Saints: Even after adding C.J. Spiller to the mix, Mark Ingram will still be the top guy here. Though, he's going to continue providing no real value in the receiving game. That's only magnified with the addition of Spiller, who is among the best receiving running backs in the NFL. Speaking of Spiller, there are going to be a ton of targets to go around here. Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet combined for 106 targets last season—a number that Spiller might reach by himself in 2015.
Tier 3 (Don't Touch 'Em)
Cleveland Browns: Unless you are conducting your draft immediately prior to Week 1, it's too hard to gauge how the Browns will dole out the running back duties. Isaiah Crowell may be the leader of the pack, but both Terrance West and Duke Johnson will have something to say about that. Of the teams listed in this article, Cleveland boasted one of the most run-based attacks. The issue here is that the team may very well decide to go with the hot hand. If that's the case, we aren't going to have a consistent fantasy performer. And unlike other options being able to provide you with a solid handcuff (see New Orleans), the Browns simply don't give you that same ability.