That's a tough question. So let's start with the facts. To do so we must jump all the way back to last year when the Spartans lost five games by a total of just 13 points. That tells us that the 7-6 Michigan State team we saw last year with a lucky bounce here and a picked up flag there could have easily been 10-3,and in a perfect world had the ability to go 12-1. Now I'm not saying they were a 12-1 team because they weren't. I'm saying they were a 7-6 team that had the ability, talent, and coaching to end their season with double digit wins. Now fast forward back to the current season where they returned eight offensive starters and seven defensive starters and currently own the country's number one ranked defense and you start to get the idea that head coach Mark Dantonio has built a hell of a football team the past couple years even if the whole nation had not realized it. With the best defense in the land and a running game that averages 190 yards per game Michigan State possesses a lethal combination for teams to play against come the cold months of football. Do they deserve a BCS bid? Let's break it down further.
Their Past
One of the first deciding factors when voters place their ballets is analyzing the current teams opponent and justifying whether or not they have beaten quality competition. Up to this date you could argue the Spartans haven't gone out and whooped up on the nations best. Starting with three easy wins against non conference teams they actually lost to Notre Dame in week four 17-13 (still their only loss). Since then they have ripped off five wins against their Big Ten foes of Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan.
Besides that last game in which the Spartans went into Ann Arbor and snapped Brady Hoke's 20 game home winning streak, none of those victories jump off the page and make you say wow.
The Spartans plead their case saying "I beat who you gave me to beat", a card the Buckeyes have been playing almost all year.
A theme the top Big Ten teams have been acustomed to since the lack of talent and star power has drizzled out of the conference the past decade as it has seemingly lost its luster from the national media.
This forces teams like Ohio State and Michigan State to not only win against their competition, but dismantle them. Otherwise voters will not rank them higher than teams with poorer records yet in tougher conferences like the SEC. Lucky for the Spartans, their three games remaining contain a 7-2 Cornhusker team and a 8-2 Gopher team. If they can win their last three, and do it convincingly, they will receive a little bit extra boost from the voters that should put them into serious BCS bid contention.
Their Present
Just what is this monster known as the Michigan State defense? What are its powers? Does it have a kryptonite? And is what they're doing considered legal in all 50 states? We know stats can be twisted many ways, but however you slice it and dice it some incredible things are being done by this Spartans defense. Below is a list of Michigan State's rankings in common defensive catogories from ESPN.
Total Defense: 1st
Rush Defense: 1st
Yards Per Play: 1st
Yards Per Rush: 1st
Pass Efficency Defense: 3rd
Scoring Defense: 3rd
First Downs Per Game: 1st
Pass Yards Per Attempt: 1st
Pass Yards Per Game: 4th
Third Down Conversion Rate: 2nd
Plays Gaining Ten Yards or More: 1st
Percent of Plays Gaining First Down or TD: 1st
Percent of Zero or Negative Plays: 1st
Total Expected Points Added by Team Defense: 1st
Win Probability Added By Team Defense: 2nd
Two huge things to take away from these statistics. First; it's clear that Michigan State destorying every catogory, so much so that they can't improve on 90 percent of those statistics if they tried. Second; ESPN has some crazy in-depth analysis going on, digging deep in the matrix world that is college football statistics; almost to the point where you gotta think theirs some illegal child immigration labor laws being broken.
On top of that creature of a defense, the Spartans have improved their once non-exsistent offense into a ball controlling efficient unit led by quarterback Connor Cook who has thrown 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Cook has proved to be careful with the ball limiting his turnovers on top of owning a passer rating of 129.6. He has had plenty of help from running back Jeremy Langford who has piled on 10 touchdowns on the ground and helping the Spartans average 190.4 yards rushing per game.
Their Future
So what does the future hold for Michigan State in their quest for a BCS bid. They must at least be voted into the top 16 teams and even then they aren't a certainty to play in a BCS game.
Looking at the teams ahead of them that they will need to leap frog are Northern Illinois (15th) and Fresno State (14th). Both teams have soft schedules the rest of the way meaning the Spartans will not only have to win their final three games, but do so convincingly.
That will have to start Saturday when they travel to Nebraska which will be the toughest of their remaining games. No gimmes here, the Cornhuskers are 7-2 and are salivating at a chance to play for the Big Ten title, and would take a big step towards that goal with a win against the Spartans.
They follow that up by traveling to Northwestern to face a struggling but talented Wildcats team, and end their season taking on the biggest surprise of the conference in the surging Gophers. If they can beat all three of these teams the same way they have beat their past opponents like Michigan (29-6) the Spartans will end their regular season at 11-1. If that were the case; with a stellar record like that (albeit in the Big Ten) and with one of the best defenses the country has seen statistically in a long time it would be a shock to see Michigan State not receive a BCS bid. Remember, assuming the Spartans make it to the Big Ten title game against Ohio State, the outcome of that game will have huge implications in what fashion they finish their season. As it stands today however, there's no doubt in my mind that Michigan State is a BCS worthy team, but will the voters feel the same way when it's time to cast their ballots?
Follow Luke Inman on twitter @luke_spinman