With the 2012 regular season over, we’re reflecting on 2012’s biggest surprises and disappointments to predict their performance or forecast for 2013.

We’re taking a division-by-division approach and given you the highs (2012 surprises) and lows (2012 disappointments) in each. We’ll look back at players’ predicted 2012 performance and determine those players that significantly over or undershot these predictions with their actual performance.

Next up, the National League Central Surprises

Pitchers

Lance Lynn – Lynn was the Cardinals’’ first round draft pick in the 2008 MLB amateur draft.  He jumped through three levels of minor league ball in 2009 (A, AA and AAA) so his arrival on the major league scene shouldn’t be taken as a big surprise.  Nonetheless, he exploded on the scene in 2012 after logging just 34 major league innings in 2011.

Lynn spent most of 2012 in the Cardinals’ starting rotation, filling in for the injured Chris Carpenter. He throws five pitches (four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cut fastball, a curveball, and a changeup) and used his pitching array to dominate the league for the first half of the season.  He started the year 6-0 and with a 1.40 ERA.  He was the NL’s second pitcher to win ten games (behind R.A. Dickey). He did tire in the second half and was removed from the rotation when Carpenter returned to action.  Nonetheless, he finished 2012 with a very impressive 9.2 K/9 and 2.9 WAR.

Looking a little deeper at Lynn’s numbers, there’s plenty of ways he’ll need to improve his performance for 2013.  He averaged 3.2 BB/9 and batters still had strong luck against him, with a .320 opposing BABIP.  The 2013 Cardinals pitching staff looks stacked, but I fully expect they’ll move an arm (likely Jaimie Garcia) to ensure Lynn can be a full time member.  I expect to see moderate improvement from Lynn, which extrapolates to fantastic improvements in his counting statistics (Wins, SO, IP, ERA).

AJ Burnett - Burnett came to the Pirates in an offseason dump by the Yankees. After a strong 2008 in Toronto and 2009 with the Yankees, Burnett had slumped to produce 5.26 and 5.15 ERAs in 2010 and 2011. Some of Burnett’s poor NY performance could be explained by the league and home ballpark: he was pitching in the toughest division in baseball, while at the new Yankee Stadium, which was playing like a home run hitters’ park, particularly for LHBs. His 2010 HR/FB ratio jumped to 17%, far above league averages.

2012 projection systems pegged him for some improvement, but as he was traded in spring training, forecasts did not account for his trade, new home ballpark and new league.  Pittsburgh’s PNC Ballpark is a pitcher’s park, neutralizing runs by 25% below the league average.  Thus, Burnett would not have the same home run problems he experienced in New York.  He’d also be facing easier competition, with the likes of Houston and Chicago in the Pirates division.  Sure enough, he posted significant improvements from his 2010-11 slide; 2012 saw Burnett produce a 3.51 ERA, 3.4 WAR, while his K/9 improved to 8.1. He walked a career low – just 2.75 per nine innings.

Burnett’s in a great position and ballpark as he will inevitably have to change his pitching approach as he ages through his mid 30s.  He won’t be the strikeout pitcher he was while with Florida and Toronto and must utilize all his pitches to full effect.  He’s inducing more ground balls (56% in 2012, up from 49% in 2011), which is the perfect tonic to a pitcher with decreasing velocity (fastball velocity has fallen 0.5 MPH each year since 2009). I expect to see another 2012-caliber season from Burnett in 2013.

2012 Honorable Mentions: Mike Fiers, Jason McDonald

Hitters

Carlos Gomez - Coming into 2012, Gomez had established himself as an all-field, no-hit CF for the Brewers.  He’d spent much of 2011 in a platoon with Nyjer Morgan and there was little expectation of offensive improvement. Fangraphs projected just a .648 OPS with much of his 1.7 WAR value based on his defense.

Instead, Gomez produced a career year at the plate, with 19 HRs (previous high was 8), 72 RBIs, .763 OPS and a 3.5 WAR.  These are exceptional numbers that placed Gomez among the elite CF in the game.  Gomez nearly doubled his career average for isolated slugging (likelihood of producing an extra-base hit), jumping to .202 (career line .133).

I expect Gomez will continue maintain his elevated performance.  With each year, he’s managed to get more balls in the air (declining GB%) while improving his plate discipline, (Z-Swing% improved each year since 2009).  The Brewers are being rewarded for their patience as they’ve waited out Gomez’ development and have an elite CF.

Alfonso Soriano - For good reason, Soriano has been labeled one of the largest contract busts in baseball history.  He’s signed to an eight-year 136 million deal and in 2011 produced just a 1.4 WAR largely based on league average hitting (a 100 wRC). 
Soriano experienced a significant recovery in 2012, his age 36 season. He produced a 4.0 WAR with 34 HRs.  Despite the significant improvement in his counting statistics, he was not a significantly improved batter; his wRC rose to just 116. He actually struck out at a higher clip than in 2011 (up to 27%) and much of his WAR value is based on improved OF defense.

I think much of Soriano’s 2012 improvement in an illusion.  The Cubs will be actively looking to shop Soriano this offseason, similar to the way the Blue Jays dumped Vernon Wells in 2010.  I’d caution any team tempted to pick up Soriano as a middle-order bat for 2013.

2012 Honorable Mentions: John Jay, Yadier Molina, Ryan Ludwick