Are you nearing the late rounds of your draft and don’t feel comfortable with the amount of relievers you’ve selected? Are you wondering if you've drafted enough saves to compete this season? Don’t worry, there are plenty of great young relievers out there currently sailing under the radar.
Every year, headed into Spring Training and the Fantasy Baseball draft season there are relievers given the coveted “closer” tag. Since saves are a counting category in nearly every fantasy league these certain relievers are given inflated draft values. Inevitably throughout the season many of them will lose their closer status do to ineffectiveness or injury, thus opening the door for another reliever to earn saves.
As we are just entering Spring Training there are currently only nine closers in situations that are truly safe and worthy of being selected in the top-150 picks on draft day. These closers are Addison Reed, Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, Aroldis Chapman, Joe Nathan, Greg Holland, Kenley Jansen, Koji Uehara and Trevor Rosenthal in no particular order. These closers are deemed safe based on past performance and/or current competition.
The other 21 currently-listed closers aren't worth investing a decent draft pick on due to the risk associated with them. Filling out your offense or starting pitching core and waiting until later rounds to select "next-in-line" types such as those listed below is advised.
Nobody wants that terrible feeling of passing on a solid hitter inorder to draft a reliever that may not even make it out of April in the closer role. Don't get that feel! Pursue relievers these cheaper options later in the draft.
Rex Brothers, Colorado Rockies
Brothers processes the top notch fire power you’d expect from a reliever in the closers role. Over his first three seasons in the majors Brothers have averaged am 11.17 strikeouts per nine innings while consistently raising his groundball rate to a 48.8% in 2013.
The one knock on Brothers has been his walk rate which lies at a near five per nine inning rate. Another year of maturing and refining his craft may certainly decrease his walk rate. I would much rather put my money on that than 41-year-old LaTroy Hawkins staying healthy the entire season.
Mark Melancon, Pittsburg Pirates
After a disastrous start to 2012 with Boston, Melancon was sent packing. He found a home in Pittsburgh for 2013 and completely resurrected his career.
Melancon posted a solid 8.87 strikeouts per nine innings while only walking slightly over one batter per nine innings. Due to Melcancon’s ability to keep his pitches down in the zone he induced just over 60% groundballs resulting in a meniscal 3.2% of his fly balls to leave the yard.
Even with these rates being unsustainable but even if they increase some he is still going to be an above average reliever. Since Jason Grilli had a great year of his own in 2013, people have underrated Melancon’s save potential.
I’m not one of those people, mainly because Grilli had an arm issue late in the season and is also entering his age 37 season. Melancon’s shot at the closer role is coming sooner than later and you are going to want him when he does move into the role full-time.
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Early this offseason it was known the Indians weren’t going to resign Chris Perez and it looked like the closer job would be Allen’s for the taking. The Indians later signed veteran reliever John Axford. This move has temporarily blocked Allen from receiving save opportunities to start the 2014 season and has deflated his value.
Given Allen’s short stay (44 games) in the minor leagues it is incredible what he has been able to accomplish thus far in the majors.
Allen posted an 11-plus strikeout rate and a 3.33 walk rate while allowing a sub nine percent homerun per fly ball rate in 2013. If Axford struggles even a little with closing out games, we could quickly see Allen take over the job for the Indians.
Victor Black, New York Mets
Last season Black was traded from the Pirates to the Mets in the Marlon Bryd deal where he quickly became the next in line for the closer role. Black received 13 innings of work with the Mets to end the season. He performed decently well in the setup role but failed to match the dominant numbers he had posted in the minors with the Pirates.
However, with some time to make adjustments to life in the majors it is conceivable that he will be able to rebound to the same dominant numbers he posted in the minors. If Bobby Parnell is not ready to start the season due to lingering injury issues or falters out of the gate Black will assuredly be the first to step into the team’s close role.
Digging Deeper
Daniel Webb, Chicago White Sox
With the White Sox trading Addison Reed to the Diamond Backs over the offseason, their bullpen is now devoid of a front-runner for the closer role. After a decent performance in his 11 inning cup of coffee, Webb has been thrown into competition with Nate Jones, Ronald Belisario and Matt Lindstrom for the team’s closer role out of Spring Training.
Webb has only recently transitioned into a full-time reliever, but in the short time since then he has posted some great numbers. In 2013 he struck out 88 batters in 74 innings from High-A and the Majors while only walking 26 batters and allowing one homerun.
Webb definitely possesses the “stuff” for the closer role and with his only true competition being Nate Jones he could very well start the season as the White Sox closer.
Remember, these guys shouldn't be your number one closer options if you intend to compete in saves for the season in rotissorie leagues. They should be use to supplement the one or two top closers selected earlier in the draft.