Advanced statistics, or sabermetrics, were conceived to try to understand the game of baseball objectively - to make educated predictions and explain, with numbers, why one player outperformed another. When Bill James, pioneer of advanced metrics, wrote The Historical Baseball Abstract and disciples from Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus and even Major League front offices jumped ship from traditional statistics, a divide was created between the “old school” and the “new school” of baseball thought.
Casual fans envision Jonah Hill as the fictional Peter Brand in the film adaptation of Moneyball, punching esoteric formulas into his TI-83 and creating tension among long-time baseball executives by his sheer presence at front-office meetings. The truth is, many sabermetric measures - from on-base plus slugging (OPS) to fielding-independent pitching (FIP) - don’t require a statistics degree to understand and incorporate into your baseball vocabulary.
In fantasy baseball, points are calculated, for the most part, using traditional metrics - batting average, home runs, runs batted in and stolen bases for position players, and wins, losses, earned run average and saves for pitchers, among other stats that your league may use. While understanding and utilizing advanced statistics is not necessary to play and succeed at fantasy baseball, the following three measures are a few that may help boost your odds throughout the fantasy season. Not to mention, who doesn’t want to show off their geek cred on draft day?
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
By definition, BABIP is a measure of how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits, or how many balls in play against a pitcher (excluding home runs) go for hits. The theory behind this metric is that a normal BABIP is .300 - by virtue of the game, 30 percent of balls put into play go for hits. A BABIP well above .300 suggests that a hitter has been lucky - or a pitcher has been unlucky - and a BABIP well below indicates that a batter has experienced bad luck - or a pitcher has been the beneficiary of good luck. BABIP is a valuable metric for fantasy owners looking to spot good seasons that may be flukes, or bad seasons that may be anomalies - both for batters and pitchers.
Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann suffered through the worst offensive season of his career in 2012, batting only .230 with 20 home runs and 67 runs batted in through 121 games. Injuries aside, a quick look at McCann’s advanced statistics reveals a BABIP of .234, well below the mean. 76 strikeouts on the season are hardly cause for alarm, so using BABIP, we can quickly deduce that while McCann was making contact with the ball at a high rate, his balls in play were going for hits far less than they should, an important factor to consider before writing off a 29-year-old catcher, once at the top of the game, as hitting a swift decline.
Quality Starts (QS)
Quality starts are one of the simplest of the advanced statistics to comprehend, and while it is a flawed measure in many ways, it can help fantasy owners see beyond the wins and losses of their pitching staff. Members of the mainstream baseball media are beginning to agree that pitcher wins and losses are not the greatest measure of a starter’s success. In many ways, wins and losses are reflective of the success and struggles of the team as a whole. A quality start is defined as a game in which the pitcher completes six or more innings while allowing no more than three earned runs. In fantasy, wins and losses equal points, but if you’re considering dropping a pitcher whose winning percentage is low, examining the quality of his starts can help you in your decision.
When Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award in 2010 with a 13-12 win-loss record, fans who don’t follow the Mariners or read (the box scores) were likely shocked. Yes, his ERA was a league-leading 2.27, but why was his win total nearly as high as his losses? Hernandez had 30 quality starts in the 2010 season, the first time this mark had been achieved since Randy Johnson in 2002. The Mariners righty - while demonstrating both an ability to pitch deep into games and limit opponents’ scoring - was the victim of poor run support in a majority of his starts in his Cy Young season. To voters’ credit, they awarded the highest honor of pitching to the most dominant starter in 2010, despite his most basic statistics.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Perhaps the most talked-about, and most joked-about sabermetric statistic, WAR was created to determine the value of a player’s total contributions to their team. While the statistic is actually calculated using different formulas by different sources - Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs all use a slightly different equation - the purpose of the statistic is to show how many additional wins a player contributes to his team compared to a replacement-level player (a bench or minor league player) at the same position. A more empirical take on pre-season rankings in fantasy baseball, WAR is all-encompassing of elements that make a player valuable to his team.
In general, a “solid starter” would have a WAR between two and three wins above replacement, an “all-star” between four and five, and an “MVP” above six. In 2012, the debate over who would win the American League Most Valuable Player Award raged on long after Miguel Cabrera took home the trophy. Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout compiled a WAR of 10.7 as opposed to Cabrera’s 6.9. While Cabrera, with a .330 batting average, 44 home runs and 139 runs batted in won the Triple Crown for batters, Trout, who hit .326, scored a league-leading 129 runs and stole 49 bases, was an overall more complete contributor. Fantasy owners can agree that having either Cabrera or Trout on their rosters is a victory, but using the WAR statistic can help filter players on draft day without trying to analyze their value using traditional statistics.