It’s weird to think how different the world was six years ago. Back in 2007 George W. Bush was still president of the United States of America, Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair as the Prime Minister of Britain, Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker of the House and the Boston Red Sox locked up their second World Series title since 1918. While the first three share no real significance to the latter, the one thing that needs to be pointed out is that 2007 was the last time the fate of the American League playoff picture WASN’T decided on the last day of the season.
With the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays tied with records of 90-71 and the Cleveland Indians maintaining a one game lead for the top spot in the Wild Card race with a 91-70 record, a slew of scenarios could have shaken out for Monday. But, as the baseball gods would have it, all three teams won, forcing a pivotal and third Game #163 scenario in the last five years between the Rangers and the Rays and home field advantage for the Indians against the winner. So, for another day, hearts will race, breaths will be held and one team and their fan base will be served a dish of heartbreak while the other will toast champagne whilst affixed with goggles on their faces and plasticwrap around the lockers. Here’s what to expect in Game #163.
David Price has the unfortunate job of pitching against the Rangers. Even though he is the reigning AL Cy Young winner, he is probably the last guy Rays fans would want taking the hill. For his career Price is 1-7 with a 5.57 ERA (including playoffs) against the Rangers. Even worse, with the Rangers being awarded the home field advantage Price’s numbers in the Ballpark at Arlington are 1-2 with a 10.26 ERA and 16 strikeouts. No matter how good a pitcher has been for their career and no matter how many prestigious awards they may have on their mantle at home, numbers like that are frightening to have on your shoulders as the fate of the season is contingent upon your performance.
On the other side Martin Perez is getting the nod for the Rangers. Perez is 10-5 on the season with a 3.55 ERA and 79 strikeouts. Perez is more of a flyball/groundball kind of guy, so don’t let the low strikeout total distract you. Perez has only had one career appearance against the Rays which took place on September 9, 2012 and ended with him only lasting five innings in a relief effort (three through eight), allowing two earned runs via home run while striking out three. Price never faced the Rangers in 2013 which ultimately makes this outing a push on both ends. While career numbers obviously play a huge part in handicapping a point spread, it’s still hard to determine how the game will shake out on one side of the ball. But, based on history, Perez certainly has the edge.
One of the fortunate advantages the Rangers have in their arsenal is the return of slugger Nelson Cruz. Hard to believe that Cruz’s suspension ended on the official last game of the season, and based on his season performance before his PED pinch, Cruz is looking to make a statement. Based on sources I have within the Rangers organization, all of them said that all Cruz has been doing since his suspension is working out and working on his hitting.
On a whole, the Rangers have the advantage. The bullpen is much sharper behind the likes of Tanner Scheppers, Neal Cotts and closer Joe Nathan. All three serve as the setup and finish core for the Rangers and all three are boasting ERAs less than 1.93 and at least 55 innings worth of work. On the offensive side Adrian Beltre took over where Cruz left off, batting .315 with 29 home runs and 91 RBI. Keep in mind, when Cruz was suspended he was hitting .269 with 27 home runs and 76 RBI. Ridiculous. Collectively the Rangers are hitting .262, seventh-best in the Majors along with 722 runs scored, 34 more than the Rays.
The only way the Rays have a fighting chance is to put runs on the board early and as often as possible. Price can go deep into games as long as he can keep his WHIP reasonable and the ball inside the stadium. Because it will be an evening game the Rays’ outfield defense won’t need to play as deep as long fly balls won’t carry as well unless it hits the jet stream in right-centerfield. Desmond Jennings may have his work cut out for him as his speed on running down balls will be a factor against the high-powered Rangers offense. Regardless of who wins, the excitement that is the American League continues for one more day.