Baseball’s worst-kept secret finally ended early Wednesday morning, with the Arizona Diamondbacks trading their talented young outfielder Justin Upton to the Atlanta Braves. The Braves receive Upton along with third baseman Chris Johnson, and in return, send third baseman/left fielder Martin Prado and prospects Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, and Zeke Spruill to the Diamondbacks.
Wednesday’s trade closes an endless rumor mill of Upton trade speculation that’s been ongoing for over 12 months. Upton, 24, was the first overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. He’d logged six full seasons with the Diamondbacks, flashing equal parts superstar and maddeningly average production. He started 2012 off poorly, but rebounded in the season’s second half to post a 2012 line of .355 OBP, .430 SLG and 2.1 WAR. By season’s close, it was clear the Diamondbacks had soured on their young star, despite his young age, strong 2009 and 2011 campaigns, and favorable contract (three years remaining for $38M). Despite an offseason trade of OF Chris Young, and signing OF Cody Ross, the club had surplus outfielders and Upton was the club’s primary trade bait tempting all other 29 MLB teams.
Diamondbacks’ general manager Kevin Towers has never been one to operate under the veil of secrecy of many other GMs, so the club’s dislike for Upton had become clear to everyone in baseball. Towers had finalized an Upton trade with the Seattle Mariners that would have brought the club a haul of top prospects from what is one of baseball’s best minor league systems. However, Upton’s no-trade clause includes Seattle, so the deal was nixed earlier this month. With the failed trade out of the bag, Towers faced increased pressure to deal Upton, lest he enter spring training with a crowded outfield, a malcontent star, and lost leverage with other interested clubs.
The Atlanta Braves has long been considered one of the top suitors for an Upton trade package. The club has a rich minor league system to deal from, a vacant left field position, and a center field position occupied by brother BJ Upton. With NL East rival Washington Nationals making smart moves that keep them the clear 2013 favourites, the Braves rightly targeted Upton as a cost-controlled opportunity to upgrade a clear offensive need and keep pace with the Nationals.
Upton will join the Braves, likely hitting in the middle of a mashing Braves line-up that has long-been heavy with left-handed hitters. He adds a righty bat alongside brother BJ, Brian McCann, Jayson Heyward and Freddie Freeman, all players in their prime production years. FanGraphs predicts Upton with a 2013 line of .367 OBP, .492 SLG and 5.2 WAR (keep in mind, this projection is based on his performance in the NL West and playing half his 162 games at Chase Field; Upton’s move to Atlanta takes him to a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so some regression is to be expected); the question with Upton is whether this performance will show up (as it has in 2009 and 2011) or whether he’ll revert to the two-win player he’s displayed in 2010 and 2012. In either case, Upton adds to a Braves’ outfield that is likely baseball’s best for the next three seasons: brother Uptons and Heyward represent baseball’s top five-tool players.
Alongside Upton going to Atlanta is Chris Johnson, who replaces Martin Prado at third base. Johnson is a useful utility infielder and likely stretched when played as an everyday third baseman. He produced a career best 15 HRs and 1.7 WAR in 528 2012 ABs. He’ll likely platoon the Braves’ third base position with Juan Francisco. He’s clearly a downgrade over Prado, but it’s a fair move to make in return from the promise Upton offers.
Prado's inclusion represents the biggest surprise inclusions in the deal. Prado spent 2012 as the Braves’ left fielder and was roundly expected to man third base in the wake of Chipper Jones’ retirement. Prado, 29, produced an outstanding 2012 with a .359 OBP, .438 SLG, 5.4 WAR and has the athleticism to return back to 3B. His inclusion in the deal is likely the result of his pending free agency after 2013, as he was expecting $11-$13M AAV in a long-term deal to stay with the Braves. He’ll move west to Arizona, play out 2013 and then hit the free agent market. For the Diamondbacks, he’s a big upgrade over Johnson, but his pending free agency makes it an open question as to whether the club got enough in return for Atlanta’s three years of Upton.
The significant prospect in the package going to the Diamondbacks is Randall Delgado. Delgado, 22, has spent parts of the last two seasons with the Braves, compiling a 3.95 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 127.2 innings pitched. He uses a three-pitch mix that includes a low- to mid-90s fastball, curveball and changeup. His biggest issue has been utilizing his off-speed pitches and commanding his fastball in the strike zone. He started 2012 as Baseball America’s 47th best prospect but has not fulfilled his promise, largely from a lack of strike zone command; he’s walked 3.5 batters per nine innings in every season but 2010. The Diamondbacks have the starting pitching depth to start Delgado at AAA-ball and help him make the command changes necessary for him to fulfill his potential.
The trade represents an interesting point of comparison between two deals, as it is widely known that Arizona had secured a prospect-rich deal for Upton from the Seattle Mariners. With knowledge of the earlier failed deal, it’s hard to see how Arizona walks away happy with their trade returns. They’ve given up on one of baseball’s top under-25 players in Upton, one that is cost controlled for another three years. Alongside Upton, they had to surrender a useful infielder (Johnson) and in return they received one year of (a very good) Martin Prado, one pitching prospect that has not-yet lived up to his advanced billing, and two minor leaguers with no experience beyond A-ball. Atlanta clearly won this trade contest, as they’ve amassed the talent to have baseball’s best outfield, retaining their top prospects and appropriately filling their third base needs in the wake of Chipper Jones’ retirement.