In 2013, the National League Central has picked up where the NL East left off in years past, as the strongest division in the league, especially at the top. At the All-Star Break, the Central features both the teams with the highest winning percentage in the game, as well as the top contenders for the two Wild Card slots. The St. Louis Cardinals, Wild Card and pennant winners for two years in a row, are leading the pack on July 17, but have been closely trailed by the revamped Pittsburgh Pirates on a quest for their first winning season since 1992. The Cincinnati Reds, third in the Central, could punch their ticket to the playoffs with their .558 winning percentage in a lesser division if the season ended today. While fans are far from shocked to see the Chicago Cubs struggling through the season, the Milwaukee Brewers 2013 demise has been nothing short of a disaster. As we enter the season's second half, who will surge, who will fold, and who will continue their success all the way to October?
St. Louis Cardinals (57-36)
The Cardinals are leading baseball by a large margin with a run differential of +127 (462 runs scored and 335 runs against.) They lead the league with a .276 team batting average and 462 runs scored, thanks in large part to All-Star first halves from Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter and Carlos Beltran. A team that doesn't employ the stolen base - no Cardinal has more than four on the season - the home run power of Beltran and Matt Holliday combined with the extra-base ability of Carpenter, Craig and Yadi means baserunners reach scoring position without relying on small ball.
Redbird Nation held their collective breath when the press conference to announce Chris Carpenter’s season - and possibily career-ending injury - was revealed. The triumvirate of young hard-throwers Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn and veteran control artist Adam Wainwright have more than picked up the slack, and match up favorably, even against the game’s best pitching staffs, in a short series. The Cardinals will receive a playoff berth - whether they end up winning the division or the Wild Card shouldn't frighten Cards fans - past St. Louis teams have done more with a lot less.
Pittsburgh Pirates (56-37)
One year ago today, the Pirates entered the second half of the season 50-40, only one game back of the Reds for first place in the division. Their final record of 79-83 tells a story of an all-time collapse, and Pirates fans get a free pass if their optimism is guarded on July 17. While there’s no assurance that this very franchise that hasn’t had a .500 record since 1992 will win 100 - or even 90 games - we're watching a far different, vastly improved Pirates roster, beginning with five solid starting pitchers. The Pirates' acquisition of Francisco Liriano has proven genius, as the oft-injured lefty has a 9-3 record, a 2.00 earned run average, and 80 strikeouts in 76.2 innings. Veteran starters A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez have been consistent, and Pittsburgh can’t help but smile at the early successes of rookies Jeff Locke and Gerrit Cole. All-Star relievers Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli have been near-unhittable this season, and the Pirates pitching staff as a whole leads baseball with a 3.07 team ERA, nearly a quarter of a run less than the second-best team.
Andrew McCutchen continues to flash his five tools and ignite the team’s offense, but it is Pedro Alvarez - who made a cameo on my “drop” list earlier this season - that has blossomed into one of the NL’s best power hitters while maintaining a respectable batting average. The Pirates have more raw talent than any other team in the division, and they are far more likely to surge in the second half than they are to repeat 2012. The depth of their pitching staff ensures that even if some of their starters begin to tire down the stretch, there are enough fresh arms to keep rolling.
Cincinnati Reds (53-42)
Dusty Baker’s squad is a playoff-caliber team feeling the squeeze in baseball’s toughest division. A power-packed lineup featuring the likes of Jay Bruce (19 home runs), Joey Votto (15 HR), Shin-Soo Choo (13 HR) and Brandon Phillips (12 HR), the Reds have a penchant for the long ball and for taking a walk, with a league-leading 338 team bases on balls. Votto’s season, in which he tops the NL leaderboard with a .434 on-base percentage, has cemented his place as the league’s best first baseman. Bruce continues to prove his worth as a power hitter, and with 22 doubles, 19 home runs and 66 runs batted in, he will likely surpass his career bests in these categories at age 26.
The Reds are no slouch on the mound either, and their NL fourth-best 3.43 ERA is a testament to the strength of both their starting rotation and relief corps. After a 19-9 campaign in 2012, Johnny Cueto has spent this season on and of the DL with a recurring lat muscle injury. Reds fans can only wonder how many more wins the team might have this season with their ace in midseason form. Unbeaten until June 18, Mat Latos continues to make the Reds look like winners in the Edinson Volquez deal, and Bronson Arroyo pitches serviceably every fifth day without fail. With a lead in the late innings, Aroldis Chapman is a deadly weapon lurking in the bullpen, and setup man Sam LeCure in the eighth is no easy task for opposing hitters. Cincinnati is the victim of domininance within their own division, and their best chance at a reprise in October this season is a victory in the one-game Wild Card playoff.
Chicago Cubs (42-51)
In the grand scheme of 2013, the Chicago Cubs haven’t been as abysmal as their record would indicate. There are reasons for optimism on the 25-man roster, however, the Cubbies are likely to write this season off as another rebuilding year. Starting pitcher Matt Garza’s worth may in fact lie more in the prospects he brings to the organization than his final numbers, and he’s put up a 2013 that entices contenders to part with key pieces of their farm systems. Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson have a similar story - both are chock-full of raw talent that has yet to be fully realized, but are creeping up in age. Lefty Travis Wood, selected to his first All-Star Game in 2013, has allowed only 88 hits in 122.2 innings pitched, and while not overpowering, uses all of his six-pitch repertoire on opposing hitters. After posting a career 4.13 ERA, incredibly pedestrian for a late-inning reliever, Kevin Gregg has capitalized on the release of Carlos Marmol and racked up 17 saves to go along with career bests in ERA (2.97) and strikeouts per nine innings (9.5)
The Cubs are third in the National League in home runs with 103, but they have neither a huge power bat nor a single everyday hitter batting over .270. Veteran outfielder Alfonso Soriano has compiled a nice 16-home run, 49-RBI season, and young first baseman Anthony Rizzo is beginning to realize his offensive potential with 13 home runs and 54 runs batted in. Still, it is difficult to call Soriano, with his .288 on-base percentage, an offensive threat, and Rizzo, despite taking walks is still making too little contact. Whiz kid shortstop Starlin Castro has been absent from most of whatever scoring the Cubs have managed to do this season. Look for Chicago’s North Siders to strike deals at the deadline to re-stock a struggling franchise with young talent. The end to the drought is not near.
Milwaukee Brewers (38-56)
Unlike the Cubs, whose struggles can be largely attributed to a lack of talent, the Brewers can chalk 2013 up to a disastrous starting rotation, injuries to key players and one gigantic scandal involving the face of their franchise. Sixth in the National League in batting average and fifth in home runs, the Brewers can thank outfielder Carlos Gomez and rookie shortstop Jean Segura for keeping their team totals out of the basement. Both have put together All-Star overall campaigns, with 25 home runs and 48 stolen bases among the two of them. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy has put up a respectable .276 batting average, 13 home runs and 52 runs batted in, and is one of the most underrated fantasy performers, even at his position. However, the optimism ends there. Ryan Braun has appeared in only 58 games this season due to a neck injury, and when a man who had 26 home runs, 65 RBI and 16 stolen bases at the All-Star Break last season is currently sitting at nine, 36, and four, respectively, Milwaukee’s fall makes a lot more sense.
The Brewers pitching has been nothing short of nightmarish this season. Their staff owns a league-high 4.13 earned run average to go along with a .261 opponents’ batting average and a whopping 109 home runs allowed. Kyle Lohse, seemingly unemployable in the offseason, has enjoyed the most respectable season of the starters, with 5-7 record, a 3.67 ERA and 115 hits in 115.1 innings pitched. Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada and former ace Yovani Gallardo’s seasons can be interchanged - all have winning percentages under .500 and earned run averages hovering around 5.00. Is there any salvaging the Brewers season? Possibly, if something clicks for their underachieving pitching staff. However, the hole the Brew Crew dug themselves is too deep to climb out of, and they will be cellar dwellers until the season mercifully ends in October.