On Sunday the Tampa Bay Rays traded pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis (along with a player to be named and cash considerations) to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for prospects: Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard.
While this trade benefits both teams for a number of reasons, I believe the Rays actually came out on top, and here’s why.
The ever-disappointing Royals, who haven’t had a winning season since 2003, decided to trade away a big chunk of their future in exchange for a chance to win now. After spending $25 million (WAY too much) for Jeremy Guthrie and trading for Ervin Santana (a so-so trade); the Royals feel that the nearly 31 year old Shields is their new ace, and solidifies their rotation.
Shields is an absolutely work-horse, pitching 200-plus innings in six consecutive seasons with the Rays. The 2010 MLB All Star went 15-10 last year, with a 3.52 ERA and 227 2/3 innings pitched in 33 starts. He has a career record of 87-73 with an ERA of 3.89, and could potentially add a win or two to the Royals’ record because of his ability to eat up innings. Shields is owed $10.5 million this year, and the club holds a $12 million option for 2014 with a $1 million buyout.
Davis had a great season last year working out of the Rays’ bullpen, after three years as a starting pitcher. He posted a 3-0 record, with a 2.43 ERA, 87 strikeouts and 70.1 innings pitched in 54 appearances. Many believe he still has the ability to be a middle-rotation starter: in 2011 he was 11-10 with a 4.45 ERA, 105 strikeouts and 184 innings pitched in 29 starts. Davis would make a great long relief guy for the Royals’ bullpen, but could move into the rotation because of an injury or poor performance. He’s owed just $2.8 million this year and $4.8 next year and the Royals hold escalating-options that could keep him with the team through 2017.
The Royals traded away two top-notch prospects and four talented prospects overall; all 23 or younger and under team control for at least six more years in exchange for two pitchers on the wrong side of 30.
Yes, it shows dedication by the front office to winning right now, and in the very weak American League Central Division, it doesn’t take much to compete for second or third place behind the Tigers (and White Sox). But, if things don’t go well, Shields (and probably Davis) surely won’t be with the team through the lengths of their contracts. Where does that leave the Royals? Now we have a scenario in the near future where the Royals are potentially without Shields, Davis, Guthrie and possibly others; and lacking in young, talented players to fill their spots.
On the flip-side, this is a big win for the Tampa Bay Rays. Once again, executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman found a way to significantly trim payroll, while still improving the team. Friedman and the Rays have had a lot of success in recent years of staying competitive in the American League East while maintaining one of baseball’s smallest payrolls.
The Rays. who had an abundance of starting pitching, felt like they had to upgrade their lineup after losing B.J. Upton to the Atlanta Braves in free agency.
22 year old center fielder Wil Myers was the gem of this trade, and is widely considered as the best prospect in the minors last season. In 134 games between double and triple-A, Myers hit .314 with 37 home runs and 109 RBIs. Meyers will likely start the season as the Rays’ everyday center fielder. He’s very good defensively, and will add some power to the Rays’ lineup; something they severely lack outside of Evan Longoria.
The other big piece of the Rays’ haul was pitcher Jake Odorizzi. The 22 year old was first drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008 (first round, 32nd overall) and was traded to the Royals in 2010 as part of the Zack Greinke trade. Odorizzi is a quality middle rotation type pitcher, and could compete for a spot in the Rays’ rotation, but is most likely headed to the bullpen to take Davis’ vacated space. Last season he went 15-5 with a 3.03 ERA in the minors. As a September call-up Odorizzi started 2 games, going 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in 7 1/3 innings.
The last two players sent to Tampa Bay where hard throwing right-hander Mike Montgomery and third baseman Patrick Leonard. Montgomery, 23 has the velocity to be a front-line starter, but seriously lacks the control. He went 5-13 last season and was demoted from triple to double-A. The 20 year old Leonard had 14 home runs and 46 RBIs in 62 rookie league games, and has a ton of upside.
The Rays hit a metaphorical home run with this trade. They shed aging, pricey pitchers and gained a ton of young (and cheap) talent. While Shields’ innings will be missed, they have enough candidates to more than capably fill out the rotation. Meyers and Odorizzi are definitely going to make an impact next season at the big league level, and that’s enough to make this trade worth it. If Montgomery and/or Leonard pan out, this is an even better trade.
In the end, Kansas City gave up a little too much in this trade. Shields and Davis clearly add value to the team, but the Royals are putting far too much stock in Santana and Guthrie, and their severe lack of offense means they’ll probably only add a couple of wins this year; not enough to move up in the standings. The Rays gave up two valuable pitchers, but gained the offensive/defensive stand-out type player that they needed, and bolstered their young and talented pitching corp. in the process.