As I mentioned earlier this week, the Philadelphia Phillies are an old club. That doesn’t mean they’re not without talent; Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz represent some of MLB’s premier talent at their respective positions. But as the club’s core talent moves from ripe to aged, general manager Ruben Amaro faces the imperative of shoring-up his roster at 3B and OF - without assuming significant payroll. Offensive additions at these corner positions would allow the team to make a final postseason run in 2013.
As I predicted this week, Amaro’s made an astute trade, acquiring OF Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins in return for SP Vance Worley and pitching prospect Alex Meyer. Recognizing the payroll constraints he faced, Amaro rebuffed overtures by (overpriced) free agent outfielders Michael Bourne and agent Scott Boras, and opted to address his OF needs through the trade route. While the OF still needs bulking up, Amaro’s moved on to his 3B vacancy.
This year’s 3B free agent market is incredibly thin, led by a brittle Kevin Youkilis. The market further thinned out with the Yankees’ announcement that Alex Rodriguez will miss the first half of 2013 and the White Sox signing of 3B-utilttyman Jeff Keppinger. Amaro has spurned the remaining free agent options and acquired long-time team captain Michael Young from the Texas Rangers in return for $10M, reliever Josh Lindblom and minor-league right-hander Lisalverto Bonilla. The trade required Young to waive his ten-and-five rights that provided him no-trade protection going into what would have been his final season with the Rangers.
Michael Young has had a long, productive and controversial career. He’s spent 13 seasons with the Rangers and is their franchise leader in most offensive categories. He’s made his career on the backs of a consistently strong line drive percentage (24%, MLB average is 20%) that’s allowed him to generate strong counting statistics (AVG, hits, doubles, RBIs). He’s been controversial because he’s never been a strong defender, always exhibited terrible plate discipline (career 6.6% BB%) and occupied too many ABs on a 2012 Rangers’ lineup that had many superior options. By the end of 2012, it was clear there was no place for Young – he was blocked at 3B by Adrian Beltre, at 1B by Mitch Moreland, and importantly, he was blocking top prospect Mike Olt from receiving any ABs at the above positions (or DH). Despite an admirably consistent career (posted minimum 2.6 WAR every year since 2003), Young had a miserable 2012 campaign; he was considered the worst MLB regular in 2012 by way of his -1.4 WAR posted over 651 ABs. After the Rangers’ disappointing finish in 2013, Young became an easy scapegoat, despite Manager Ron Washington’s long-time affection for his captain.
The Phillies acquire the 36-year old Young in the last year of his contract and will only pay $6M of his $16M salary. They’ll rely on him to play 3B, a position he’s not played consistently since 2010. He’s never been a good fielder, posting a negative total zone rating every year since 2008. It’s easy to look at this as a salary dump by the Rangers, but I believe there’s hope in the deal and that the Phillies will get value from Young’s 2013 play. Looking at his 2012 numbers, what is striking is his poor luck; he had just a .299 BABIP – the lowest number since 2002, when he had a .308 BABIP. He’s always used his high line drive rate to miss fielders and get on base. That’s a skill set that does not diminish quickly and there’s good reason to think his 2012 BABIP is indication of a one-year fluke. A notoriously impatient hitter, Young actually posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2012. He struck out just 10.8% of his at bats, which was well below his career rate of 14.3% of ABs. As the Phillies are just paying him $6M, they’re not paying for performance reminiscent of his peak. If he can produce 12 HRs, 70 RBIs, and a return to his career .301 career AVG, they’ll be happy with his production at 3B.
The move just doesn’t get them any younger, that’s for sure.