Friends, the time we have all waited for is now here. The crack of the bat, the mouthwatering aroma of popcorn, vendors yelling about hot dogs and lemonade for sale. Baseball season is back and after a month of spring training preparing us with a little taste of America's pastime, our favorite game is back on the calendar with meaningful games for us all to sit back and enjoy. Few things are better than baseball and the feeling of just relaxing and watching one of the best sports on the planet.
If there is one thing that makes it all the more better its daily fantasy baseball. DFS is back in our lives and here at eDraft Sports, we're ready to take you on another exciting ride through the baseball season with lots of DFS content. It all gets started with opening day, a full slate of fun action for us to pick our matchups and targets, all with the hope of cashing in and finishing in the green on baseball's first day back.
As always, be sure to check out DraftKings for some exciting MLB DFS action with a plethora of contests to choose from. Whether you want the full slate, early, late or featured slate, DraftKings offers the verstility to fit what you want. For Thursday, we'll focus our attention on the nine 'featured' games. Now let's get things started and put together our first MLB DFS lineup for the 2018 season.
Starting Pitchers:
Chris Sale, BOS @ TB, ($12,200)
We want to start the DFS season off right and given the weight of aces and the potential for performances that could swing your lineup from in the red to a big payout, we'll want to pay up for one of them on Opening Day. In this case, we'll target a pitcher with excellent upside, a great chance to get a win for the bonus points and someone who routinely delivered outstanding performances last season.
Sale is set to face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that drained four of its best offensive producers from the 2017 season and replaced them with significant question marks at the same respective positions. He is one of the game's best pitchers and should generate a significant amount of strikeouts against Tampa Bay's lineup and keep the runs to a minimum. We could easily be looking at an outing with just one run allowed over seven innings of work and the potential to reach double-digit strikeouts. Tampa Bay is a lineup fantasy owners will want to target pitchers for throughout the season and it will all start on Thursday with Sale's matchup against them.
Garrett Richards, LAA @ OAK, ($6,800)
While some other names like James Shields and Dylan Bundy draw some consideration, Richards' price point and his matchup against the Oakland Athletics wins out for us to make him our SP2 for the day. Richards, who many hoped would become a frontline starter but season after season seemed to be brought down by injuries, enters 2018 healthy. In his 12 starts combined over the last two seasons, when he could actually pitch and wasn't sidelined with arm troubles, Richards posted a 2.31 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 0.43 HR/9 and posted a 15.2 percent K-BB rate from 2016-'17.
His price is greatly discounted because of his awful history of durability issues, which is something we'll take advantage of right now. While Oakland possess some quality pop in its lineup, the grouping isn't one of the feared batting orders in the American League and there is plenty of strikeout potential for opposing pitchers to take advantage of. Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Matt Joyce and Matt Chapman all struck out in over 20 percent of their plate appearances last season. Pair that with Jonathan Lucroy's evident decline, Stephen Piscotty's struggles and pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, it all makes a very favorable case for Richards as a high-end SP2 on DraftKings for Thursday's featured slate.
Other Options: Chase Anderson MIL @ SD, Danny Duffy KC vs. CWS, Aaron Nola PHI @ ATL
Catcher:
Caleb Joseph, BAL vs. MIN, ($2,700)
When you spend up for an ace, you'll have to naturally cut back and find a dart throw or two at other positions. We find a perfect one here with Caleb Joseph, who costs close to the minimum at the catcher position and will be facing a favorable matchup in a hitter-friendly park after a strong spring training.
We all know how homer-friendly Camden Yards can be and that becomes something even more so with targeting given Minnesota Twins starter Jake Odorizzi allowed a 1.88 HR/9 and a 47.3 percent fly ball rate last season. While Joseph won't be hitting atop the order, he is in a lineup with a lot of power-hungry hitters and that should be approach against Odorizzi's rising fastball right in the center of the plate. There's obviously some risk here, but he's a punt paly with positive factors for a DFS breakout that we like.
Other Options: Evan Gattis, HOU @ TEX, Austin Hedges SD vs. MIL
First Base:
Trey Mancini, BAL vs. MIN, ($3,600)
For some of the same reasons as with Joseph, we target Mancini against Odorizzi on Thursday. Of course, there's also an additional reason for DFS players to think of Mancini even more highly than last season. Demonstrated by FanGraphs' Jeff Zimmerman earlier this month, Mancini started hitting more fly balls in spring training compared to last season with a nine percent drop in his ground ball rate.
Now consider with a 51 percent groundball rate in 2017, Mancini still finished with 24 home runs in 586 plate appearances. An upward push to hit more balls in the air, taking advantage of the closer walls and short porches in Camden Yards, could help elevate Mancini into a 28-30 home run producer. Given the matchup, that first homer of the season could come on the first day.
Other Options: Lucas Duda KC vs. CWS, Justin Smoak TOR vs. NYY
Second Base:
Jose Altuve, HOU @ TEX, ($5,200)
It's the first day of the season and we're already jumping on board with the reigning American League's Most Valuable Player. Altuve draws a matchup against Cole Hamels, who quickly entered the decline phase in his career and could free fall into becoming a frequent target for us this season.
It's also worth noting that Altuve crushes southpaws even more than right-handed pitchers. Last season, Altuve posted a .977 OPS, .561 slugging percentage, .209 isolated power and 164 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers compared to a .957 OPS, .543 SLG, .200 ISO and 156 wRC+. Let's finish the cake of a matchup off with it being in a hitter-friendly ballpark, it's an easy decision to put Altuve in DFS lineups.
Other Options: Ozzie Albies ATL vs. PHI, Rougned Odor TEX vs. HOU
Third Base:
Mike Moustakas, KC vs. CWS, ($3,800)
Remember that moment when you saw Moustakas, one of the most hyped free agents this offseason, sign a one-year deal for $5.5 million. That's the exact reaction I experienced when I saw his price on DraftKings.
Don't let the poor market for Moustakas fool you, there's still plenty to like about him from a DFS perspective. Set to face James Shields, who could easily be 2018's version of Jered Weaver, Moustakas' .268 ISO and .862 OPS off righties last season fits perfectly against Shields' 2.82 HR/9 and .554 slugging percentage allowed to left-handed hitters in 2017.
While there are plenty of elite third basemen to target, many of whom should be in a percentage of your DFS lineups, Moustakas' potential for an extreme ROI makes him the top option for Thursday.
Other Options: Manny Machado BAL vs. MIN, Alex Bregman HOU @ TEX, Josh Donaldson TOR vs. NYY
Shortstop:
Carlos Correa, HOU @ TEX, (4,900)
The choice to roll with Correa over an elite outfielder came down to positional value. We could either spend up for the top shortstop on Thursday's slate, with a sizable gap thanks to Trea Turner's game being PPD, and find greater value in the outfield and have a wide range of players to choose from.
Correa is an MVP-caliber player positioned to hit near the top of the best lineup in baseball and will pair with Altuve for an excellent mini stack. The park environments, matchup and splits all line up in Correa's favor for this one, making it a natural call to make him our SS1 for Thursday's slate.
Other Options: Zack Cozart LAA @ OAK, Yangervis Solarte TOR vs. NYY, Marwin Gonzalez HOU @ TEX
Outfield
Aaron Hicks, NYY @ TOR, ($3,500)
Hicks will almost certainly be a common name for us this season. Not only is he a talented player who finally found a home where it all clicked with the New York Yankees, but there are a lot of positive factors in his favor.
First, Hicks is priced 33rd amongst outfielders for Thursday's slate of games and he easily offers enough potential with the bat to be a top-20 outfielder when the night is over. That's because of the second factor, Hicks' success against southpaws. Last season, Hicks posted a .312/.389/.514 slash line, .903 OPS and .202 ISO when he faced left-handed pitchers.
As a result of his talent and frequent success against lefties, Hicks will hit fifth in New York's batting order and be presented with an excellent chance to produce runs. Given the strength of New York is its lineup and the matchup, Hicks makes for an outstanding play.
Ender Inciarte, ATL vs. PHI, $3,700
When digging below the $4K-threshold, a big point when looking for hitters is where they hit in the lineup. Naturally, the higher they hit in the batting order correlates to a greater interest in them for potential DFS production.
Inciarte will be Atlanta's leadoff hitter this year, a prime position given the Braves' strength this season is their hitting. A .304-hitter last season with double-digit home runs and steals, Inciarte should be a reliable threat to get on base and be an effective mover on the base pat this season. While Nola is a promising pitcher and a potential target, left-handed hitters posted a .318 wOBA against him last season and he is prone to some poor performances.
We aren't expecting any home runs from Inciarte, but a two-hit game with a run scorer and a stolen base would be a 13-point performance on DraftKings.
Eddie Rosario, MIN @ BAL, ($3,500)
Rosario finishes out our lineup thanks to the matchup in Camden Yards against Dylan Bundy. The ballpark factor is very favorable, especially given Rosario's hard-hit and fly ball rates last season.
More importantly though, the left-handed hitter matches up well against Bundy's lines last year against batters from the left side. In 2017, lefties posted a .328 wOBA, .321 OBP and Bundy held a 1.36 HR/9 against them across 333 batters faced. If anyone in Minnesota's lineup is going to hurt Bundy, it will be the likes of Rosario, Max Kepler and Logan Morrison.
Other Options: George Springer HOU @ TEX, Max Kepler MIN @ BAL, Andrew Benintendi BOS @ TB