One of the bigger stories this year in baseball has been the resurgence of Scott Kazmir for the Oakland Athletics. Coming into the season I was a huge Kazmir supporter and he was one of my sleeper picks to break out and have a big year. I had huge expectations for him coming into the season and he has easily exceeded them. Kazmir is ranked fifth among starting pitchers this year as he carries a 2.66 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, 84 strikeouts in 98 innings and a 9-3 record on the season.
By moving to Oakland, Kazmir was bound to have improved numbers. Oakland is a great pitchers park with it’s large dimensions and insane amounts of foul ground. The ballpark alone was bound to improve Kazmir’s numbers, and with the great offense he has behind him the wins are sure to rack for this pitcher on baseball best team.
Kazmir has exceeded his expectations to this point but is what he has done to this point sustainable? Kazmir’s best ERA is in any full season is 3.24 but that was all the way back in 2006. The main reason for the immense improvement over recent seasons for Kazmir has been the far greater control he has displayed this year. For his career he owns a 3.8 BB/9 but has cut that in half this season with a 1.9 BB/9. Kazmir has also increased his strikeout rate over recent seasons. He’s no longer the strikeout pitcher he was in his prime but Kazmir is still getting his fair share of swing and misses.
With the greatly increased command Kazmir’s success should be sustainable throughout the entire year. As far as how successful that remains to be seen. It is unlikely that he continues to pitch with an ERA under three but I wouldn’t expect it to creep to far above three. Kazmir has a FIP 3.34 which is far below his career norm but it’s nothing too worrisome because even last year Kazmir had an FIP nearly half a run below his career average. Seeing as Kazmir’s ERA isn’t too far below his FIP only a slight regression should be expected.
So should you be buying or selling on Scott Kazmir? I’m buying on Scott Kazmir as I truly believe he has turned his career around with the improved control. Due to how well he has pitched this year you won’t be able to buy low on him, however if you are afraid he is going to be a second half bust then you can sell very high on him. Odds are his stock is never going to be higher so now would be the time to trade him if you are a non believer.