If not for service time rules that gave the Washington Nationals an extra year of future contract control, shortstop Trea Turner very well could have been last year's National League Rookie of the Year if given a full season of at bats.
Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager performed sensationally with a .308/.365/.512 slash line, .372 wOBA and 137 wRC+ with 26 home runs. But Turner's numbers across 307 at bats last season screamed ROY, especially given the versatility he gave the team by playing center field for the first time in his career. Turner put up a .342/.370/.567 slash line with a .395 wOBA, 147 wRC+, 33 stolen bases and 15 home runs.
In such a short time, Turner became a fantasy star as a 23-year-old that experienced his first extended taste of the majors. With the numbers he put up at such a young age and a bat that would only develop more as he blossomed, the craving for Turner's fantasy ceiling dominated the average draft position charts.
Is Turner the shiny, new fantasy toy that owners should invest a first-round selection in or is he headed for a sophomore slump and owners are better off looking elsewhere with their early pick.
The Outlier
The numbers Turner put up were phenomenal, especially for a middle infielder in fantasy. It's what made him such a valuable fantasy commodity and why many rave about his chance to be an elite fantasy player this season over a full year. But it's first important to look back at his numbers from last season, see what caused them and how they compare to his minor league numbers.
Turner's track record isn't a display of standout power. Turner hit 1 homerun in roughly every 24 at bats, 13 home runs in 307 MLB at bats, and it's the positive outlier in his career, both at college and in a major-league system. Now compare that percentage to when he first sign a major-league contract and spent 2014 between Rookie Ball, Low-A and High-A. Turner hit five home runs across 314 at bats in 2014, or a home run every 63 at bats.
The next year between Double-A and a quick cup of coffee in the majors, the youngster hit nine home runs in 494 at bats. One home run every 55 at bats represented an improvement over his first year, but it's far off from the marks he put up this past season.
We don't have hard-hit contact or HR/FB percentages available from the minor leagues. But you can see scouting reports from sites like FanGraphs that had a 40-grade on Turner's power and long-term people viewed him as a player who would grow into 13-16 home runs, but not so soon.
A drop in power is coming, it has to. While some fantasy owners want to try and project 17-plus home runs for Turner this season, realistically 10-15 should be the ideal result. Pitchers will make adjustments and Turner's success with the fly balls carrying out of the park will likely take a step back.
Fantasy owners likely need to accept a drop in batting average as well. A .342 batting average for anyone is remarkable, you are a top contender for the batting title at a time when only three players had a BA over .330 last season. For a rookie to do it is just out of this world and regression is a guaranteed outcome.
Turner certainly received plenty of luck on his side this past season. Even for the fastest men on the basepaths, a .388 BABIP is unsustainable. It's certainly not a knock on hitter, his career projects to be one with a strong BABIP. He squares balls up often and showed a line drive approach last season with a 25.2 percent line drive rate and 41.2 percent of contact went up the middle. To further boost his profile, Turner's 13.2 infield hit percentage would have ranked third amongst qualified batters last season.
You put the drop in power production and a hit in batting average together, it makes a cocktail that should give you great hesitation about spending too high of a pick on him. The outliers point a negative picture, but there's also still plenty of reason to get excited. So let's take a look at Turner's outlook for 2017 and set some realistic expectations that can still make him a fantasy force.
The Outlook
Turner heads into the 2017 season with outfield, second base eligibility across all leagues. Having outfield eligibility is nice, but the real money maker is second base and MI eligibility. While we've seen more an offensive shift at second base and the position is becoming deeper, having someone with Turner's ability to put up great fantasy numbers stands out at the position that dealt with disappointment last season from Dee Gordon.
He'll pair the dual eligiibility with shortstop eligibility once he finishes his 10th game this season. Last season saw a surge in shortstop performance with Corey Seager, Jonathan Villar, Francisco Lindor and Jean Segura joining the likes of Carlos Correa, Addison Russell and Xander Bogaerts. Turner could join the ranks to become a fantasy force at the shortstop position, he just has to put up the numbers.
While Turner puts the ball in play a heavy amount, fantasy owners will have to put up with a larger amount of strikeouts. He struck out in 18.2 percent of plate appearances last season and across the minor leagues he owned a strikeout rate just above 20 percent. over a full season, that could put him in the 120-135 strikeout category, about the same amount as Russell, Correa and Trevor Story, so it won't have much negative impact on his value.
In terms of batting average, Turner should be able to clear a .295 batting average. His ability to pair speed and lightning quick home-to-first speed, he takes advantage of groundballs all over the diamond and turns them into infield hits. More than 70 percent of balls hit in play were pulled or hit up the middle, an example of Turner's abilities to put the ball in the right spots. He may not be a lifetime power hitter, but you can back on Turner to get on base 200-plus times this season, which could give him the chance to steal 40-plus bases.
Hitting at the top of the lineup with the 2015 N.L Most Valuable Player in Bryce Harper, an All Star in Daniel Murphy and one of the deepest lineups in baseball, Turner should well have the opportunity to score 80-plus runs this season as the Nationals' leadoff man.
A .290-plus batting average, 40-plus stolen bases and 80-plus runs puts him in the Starling Marte range. Marte could have a higher batting average and steal a few more bases, but Turner could provide a few more home runs and runs scored. Having a middle infield version of Marte is outstanding, someone who can contribute in a wide array of categories and play multiple positions.
Projected Line: .298/.332/.453, 13 HRs, 61 RBIs, 88 Runs, 43 SBs
Fantasy ADP Analysis
Currently off ESPN's live average draft position, Turner on average goes around the 17th overall pick with just a slight uptick over the past week. Around that range, the likes of Carlos Correa, Chris Sale, Corey Seager and Charlie Blackmon are.
Seeing him go amongst the elite shortstops raises some questions. His ability to play multiple positions carries some additional value, but Correa brings far more RBI production, home runs and a fairly close batting average. Meanwhile, Seager is far below Turner in stolen bases, but offers more home runs, RBIs and a potential identical batting average.
In points leagues, it probably isn't worth it to take Turner over either of the two other shortstops or Blackmon. Power counts for more points in points leagues and as a result, they should get the clear edge over Turner and push him a little down the boards into the mid-late 20s. If it's H2H cats where you're trying to win as many categories as possible, then Turner's all-around contribution in hits, average, runs scored, RBIs and stolen bases at second base/shortstop is worth that top-20 selection.