The NL West in 2012 was a veritable hodgepodge of top performers that went places, and top performers that went nowhere. On the other hand, fantasy baseball managers with players from this division wouldn’t necessarily agree with the real-life year-end standings.
In fantasy leagues last year, quality hitting and pitching were found in ample amounts from the first-place San Francisco Giants, down to the cellar-dwelling Colorado Rockies.
The same will apply for the 2013 fantasy season.
San Francisco produced the fewest home runs in the National League (103)—and majors for that matter—yet captured the World Series behind the NL’s fifth-ranked pitching staff (3.68 ERA). Imagine the quality pitchers who helped secure that crown.
Colorado’s pitching staff, meanwhile, amassed Major League Baseball’s worst ERA at 5.22. Yet, Rockies batters drove in the fifth-most runs and produced the NL’s sixth-highest home-run total at 166.
The point is that top-notch performers will emerge from the Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and Rockies—irrespective of the team’s final ranking.
Let’s now take a peak at the top-two producers from each NL West squad for the 2013 fantasy season.
San Francisco Giants
Pablo Sandoval, 3B
(2012; 396 AB): .283 AVG, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 38 BB, 1 SB, .342 OBP, .789 OBP
Welcome back, “Kung Fu Panda.”
Sandoval will piggyback off his stellar .364 AVG, 6 HR, 13 RBI postseason run in 2012. He’ll tap into his World Series’ heroics and derive a career-best season.
Buster Posey will also perform at an elite level, especially since it’s really the first time he’ll begin a season with a clean bill of health. Residual, debilitating pain will not factor into this year’s equation.
Knowing what he accomplished in 2012, just imagine the possibilities.
With Posey raking it in MVP-like fashion yet again, Sandoval will produce at his greatest level yet—even one-upping his 25 HR, 90 RBI output in 2009. He’ll play a complete, hamate-injury-free season as well.
The Panda will rack up 29 HR and 100 RBI while hitting over .320 for a normally power-deficient Giants’ lineup. Throw in 38 2B and 515-plus fantasy points to boot.
(Someone’s going to look real bad if World Series motivation turns into a World Series hangover…)
Madison Bumgarner, SP
(2012): 16-11, 3.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 191 SO, 208.1 IP
There certainly won’t be any hangover affecting this rising star.
Bumgarner will continue his career ascension after surviving a near collapse in 2012. The Giants fourth-year starter emerged from a two-start disaster in the divisional and championship rounds.
He shut out the Detroit Tigers and mowed down eight through seven innings in Game 2 of the World Series. The courageous performance immediately wiped out his late-season struggles that almost derailed him for good.
It gave him new life.
Bumgarner will attain a 19-9 record with 205 K and a 3.03 ERA in 214 IP. These career marks will serve as reminder for the next great lefthander in the majors.
Fantasy-speaking, mark “MadBum” down for 575 points.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Kemp, CF
(2012; 403 AB): .303 AVG, 23 HR, 69 RBI, 40 BB, 9 SB, .367 OBP, .906 OPS
Sometimes you just have to roll with the chalk.
Despite coming off surgery for a detached labrum and rotator cuff damage, Kemp will emerge yet again as the Dodgers’ top hitter.
It won’t be a breakout season from Andre Ethier, or a resurgent campaign by Adrian Gonzalez or even a throwback year for Hanley Ramirez. No, Kemp will produce a paradigm shift.
He’ll actually start slow in April, followed by hitting his stride with huge batting totals in the latter half of the year. Kemp will lead a loaded Dodgers roster with a .290 AVG, 35 HR, 110 RBI and 15 SB.
With additional categories displaying impressive numbers, expect a fantasy point-total hovering around the 600 mark for Kemp in 2013.
Zack Greinke, SP
(2012 w/ Brewers and Angels): 15-5, 3.48 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 200 K, 212.1 IP
Clayton Kershaw would have been the conventional chalk-worthy pick for starting pitcher. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if he registers one of the best campaigns out of all NL West starters.
That said, we’re going with Greinke.
The nine-year veteran quashed any and all anxiety-related issues upon moving to LA from Milwaukee. He handled the City of Angels with a 6-2 record, three-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio (78-to-26) and 3.53 ERA in 13 starts with LAA.
We expect a similar performance out of Greinke for the entire season. He’ll rack up a career-high 17 wins with 210 K and a 3.30 ERA.
The NL West has little lifetime experience against Greinke. He’ll take advantage of his new division with 570 fantasy points this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
(2012; 514 AB): .286 AVG, 20 HR, 82 RBI, 60 BB, 18 SB, .359 OBP, .849 OPS
Harking back to an age-old truism—the third time’s the charm
Goldschmidt will register a career-year in his third MLB campaign. After demolishing his rookie production during his sophomore season, the powerful first baseman will continue his ascension as one of the risings stars in this league.
With the likes of Aaron Hill, Jason Kubel and Cody Ross hitting around him, Goldschmidt will take off in 2013.
He’ll eclipse the 30 HR, 90 RBI and 20 SB mark. His average will hover in the .280s, while his BB total will experience a substantial rise.
Watch out for a gold-worthy 500-plus points from Goldschmidt this year.
Ian Kennedy, SP
(2012) 15-12, 4.02 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 187 K, 208.1 IP
Kennedy experienced a substantial drop off from his breakout 2011 campaign in which he finished fourth-place in the Cy Young voting.
The Diamondbacks' ace nearly matched his K, BB and IP total. But he also registered six fewer wins, eight more losses, nine more HR allowed and an ERA that rose from 2.88 to over 4.00.
For 2013, let’s split the difference.
Kennedy will return to No. 1 form with 18 wins, a 3.50 ERA, 190 K and 212 IP. He’ll make good on his new $4.2 million salary and push Arizona towards the No. 2 seed in the West.
Award him with 490 fantasy points for his efforts.
San Diego Padres
Chase Headley, 3B
(2012; 604 AB): .286 AVG, 31 HR, 115 RBI, 86 BB, 17 SB, .376 OBP, .875 OPS
Unless Carlos Quentin reverts back to 2008 form, there just aren’t many viable sluggers in San Diego.
Headley led the club last year in AVG, HR, RBI, BB, OBP and OPS, among other categories. He was far and away the Padres best hitter.
Even with some contention arising from a long-term contract stalemate, Headley will still earn a handsome $8.575 million in 2013. He’ll take that to the bank, along with another solid year at the plate.
We’ll go with a .277 AVG, 25 HR, 101 RBI, 79 BB, 12 SB and 525-plus fantasy points.
Edinson Volquez, SP
(2012): 11-11, 4.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 174 K, 182.2 IP
Unlike his teammate Quentin, Volquez will return to better days in 2013.
The Padres’ No. 1 starter earned his first double-digit win total since 2008 when pitching for the Reds. He nearly matched his 13 victories from the previous three years combined.
While his 105 walks were an outrageous amount that led all NL pitchers, Volquez will build on his overall progress. Expect another 30-plus start campaign.
He’ll notch 12 W, 4.05 ERA, 181 K and 179 IP. Keep an eye out for a sub-100 BB total, as well as 360 fantasy points.
Nothing special, but San Diego will take it.
Colorado Rockies
Carlos Gonzalez, LF
(2012; 518 AB): .303 AVG, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 56 BB, 20 SB, .371 OBP, .881 OPS
It may not seem like we’re going out on a limb on this one. Remember, though, that top power slugger Troy Tulowitzki will return from a groin injury that wiped out most of his season in 2012.
And Gonzalez’s power numbers have dropped each year since his breakout 2010 campaign.
With Tulowitski’s homecoming, however, Gonzalez will receive his due support in the lineup. “Tulo” will provide just enough thump in the cleanup spot for his No. 3-hitting brethren.
“CarGo” will reach the 30 HR and 100 RBI plateau for the second time in his career. He’ll maintain his .300-plus average, but will fall just short of 30-30 production.
Give him 550-plus fantasy points for the season.
Rafael Betancourt, RP
(2012): 1-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 57 K, 31 S, 57.2 IP
Talk about depressing—not a single Rockies’ pitcher qualified for the ERA title last season.
Jeff Francis led all starters with a whopping six wins, while Rex Brothers held the top spot with eight victories out of the bullpen. A similar situation may develop again knowing the state of Colorado’s rotation.
But it’s Betancourt that will serve as the one bright spot with a fine follow-up year as closer.
He’ll manage a 3.10 ERA with 65 K and 28 S for 300 fantasy points in 2013. Not so bad for a closer pitching in the high mountain air for a last place team.
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