History

If you asked Washington Nationals fans about center fielder Michael Taylor in early April, you'd likely be welcomed by groans and complains about the failed prospect who never lived up to the hype and far more often hurt the Nationals than he helped them. The outlook for Taylor grew bleak with the Nationals acquisition of All Star outfielder Adam Eaton to play center field, it seemed clear Washington had zero plans for Taylor in the near future.

Washington couldn't really be blamed for looking past Taylor and seeking an upgrade in center field. The young center fielder received plenty of opportunities, but he did little with it. Taylor received 748 plate appearances across the 2015 and 2016 seasons, but the results lacked and evidence that he could be an everyday player. While Taylor flashed the tantalizing power-speed combo that made him a top-50 prospect with 21 home runs and 30 stolen bases, those numbers were overshadowed by a .229/.281/.364 slash line, 70 wRC+ and .645 OPS.

Taylor's greatest issue came in his plate discipline. Through his first two seasons, the center fielder posted a 31.7 percent outside-zone swing rate, 53 percent outside-zone contact percentage and a 15.5 swinging strike percentage.

Taylor met the definition of a very aggressive, young hitter who wanted to try and crush nearly every pitch thrown his way and we know where that approach got him. Paired with a low walk percentage, Washington decided it had seen enough and emptied much of its farm system for Eaton.

The move paid off almost immediately for the Nationals. Paired with Trea Turner as the top two hitters, Eaton tore the cover off the ball to start the year. In 107 plate appearances, Eaton posted a .397 on-base percentage, 126 wRC+ and an .854 OPS with three stolen bases. With the duo and Bryce Harper, Washington boasted the best batting trio in the major leagues and it put them in position to put up a lot of runs and strike concern in opponents that would face them every game for the remainder of the season.

Unfortunately, that all changed on April 28 when Adam Eaton ran out a play to first base and his knee buckled, an MRI later revealed he suffered a torn ACL and would miss the remainder of the season. Suddenly, Taylor became part of the equation again and slid back into center field as an everyday player immediately.

The Unexpected Breakout

Naturally, expectations were low for Taylor when he reclaimed the center field gig. But it seems we've seen a new version of Taylor, more of the player everyone expected him to be as a prospect. More importantly, someone who filled into the void Eaton left perfectly and gave Washington strong production.

Taylor's first month as a regular in 2017 delivered the normal strikeout rates, but his slash line jumped off the page. Despite a 34 percent strikeout rate, higher than his career average, the 26-year-old put up some of the best number in his young career. 

Across 103 plate appearances, Taylor registered a .281/.330/.500 slash line, .830 OPS and 114 wRC+. Taylor wasn't just performing like a solid replacement-level player, he was an above-average center fielder at the plate and he tied it in with strong defense.

It wasn't even about power and speed any longer as he hit four home runs and stole three bases over that span, he gave Washington what they needed at the bottom of the lineup. Someone that could put the ball in play and get on base, then have the speed to come around and score from first or second with the likes of Turner and Harper.

It might not have been the player Washington fully expected, but they were thrilled to have his production given the loss the lineup suffered a month prior.

But that strikeout rate raised concerns for the weeks ahead. Taylor struck out more than ever, his chase rate outside the zone sat at 32 percent, he made contact just 67 percent of the time and his 16.3 swinging strike rate hurt his outlook. Taylor showed no signs of improvement with his plate discipline, so surely this streak of good luck would end.

Yet, Taylor's numbers improved the next month. In his last 111 plate appearances, the 26-year-old is tearing the cover off the ball and performing at an All Star-caliber level. The power certainly stands out with eight home runs and 10 doubles over that span, making him a machine at the plate and a major source of run production. Meanwhile, he showed more activity on the base paths with seven swiped bases on nine attempts.

For Taylor, the power-speed combo blossomed into a major asset in June and he tagged on to it with great overall numbers at the plate. He owns a .342 on-base percentage across that span, with the help of a decline in strikeouts. As a result, he posted a 140 wRC+ and .945 OPS over that time, he posted better numbers than Harper.

After Turner fractured his wrist on June 29, Nationals manager Dusty Baker moved Taylor up from eighth in the lineup into the top two. In the limited sample size, Taylor holds a .353 batting average and owns a 5/4 K/BB ratio across 22 plate appearances.

With Turner out for two-plus months, the looming return of left fielder Jayson Werth and the trio of All Stars behind him in Harper, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon, Taylor in the leadoff spot with above average numbers would be mouthwatering to fantasy owners.

But we are left with the one question. Are Taylor's numbers remotely sustainable over a full season?

The Risk Factors?

It's very easy to get caught up in the numbers and want to fully buy into Taylor. Plenty of breakouts happen when someone is in their mid-20s, we even see sudden breakouts from 30-year-old players. But there's also reason to be very concerned about Taylor's sustainability.

Even if we put aside the plate discipline for now, Taylor's metrics show a very lucky hitter. Before 2017, Taylor registered a career 15.2 home run/fly ball rate. Given his low contact rates, it was a perfectly acceptable number and would put him amongst the top 70 in baseball this season. But this year, Taylor's HR/FB rate sits at 24 percent since May.

Even when you adjust somewhat for the reported "juiced" baseballs, that number seems unsustainable for Taylor. So while he will hit  a career high in home runs this season, fantasy owners may not see 10-plus in the second half.

Taylor's BABIP is also vastly different from his career. A career .314 batting average on balls in play before the 2017 season, Taylor added more than 60 points to that this season and currently sits with a .378 BABIP. Even with Taylor's speed, there's just no reason to believe a player who has a 12 percent infield fly ball percentage and 43.7 percent ground ball rate, will sustain his present BABIP.

As a result, Taylor's .290 batting average and .892 OPS will likely come crashing down. They should be higher than his career rates before this season, so he could finish around a .250 batting average, but the regression in the second half will impact fantasy owners.

Now you look at his plate discipline. For as great as his fantasy numbers have been, his lack of discipline at the plate remains the same. He swings at half the pitches he sees and given his 68.8 percent contact rate, which ranks in the bottom 10 across baseball, so it's evident the swing and miss is still there in his game.

When you put it all together, the shine of Taylor's 2017 first half certainly starts to come off. There is no doubt he saved the Nationals in many ways after Eaton went down and filled in the gap to the point he nearly matched the former All Star's numbers. But it's very, very difficult to believe he puts up anything close to his current numbers when the second half comes around.

Prognosis and Options

For fantasy owners, the time to sell Taylor is right now. Everyone knows Turner will be out for a while and with Taylor now atop Washington's deep lineup in addition to his May through early-July numbers, he can be a very coveted trade chips to teams that seek outfield help. They'll see the power numbers, run production and especially focus on stolen bases in an environment where the market is dry and everyone wants to try and find every little added stolen base they can get.

So if you can, go out and sell Taylor. Package him with a lesser starting pitcher for a struggling outfielder and good starting pitcher. A two-for-two deal where the other owner sees they can get a productive outfielder with stolen bases and just swap out a starting pitching downgrade.

Meanwhile, you get out of the Taylor market when the value is highest and improve your pitching. This is obviously just an example, fantasy owners that recently lost Turner could pursue a shortstop or another bat, the options are wide open for fantasy owners and dependent on needs and your league type.

For those that are forced to keep Taylor because they are desperate for help in the outfield or the offers they receive for Taylor aren't up to equal value. Just realize that regression is almost certainly on the way and they could see a second half line with a high strikeout rate, a .250 batting average, single-digit home runs and double-digit steals. 

Taylor's production over the past month put him in the high-end OF2 territory. That alone made whatever investment fantasy owners put into him on the waiver wire when Eaton went down, an outstanding value and more than what they paid for. So while he may be an OF4 the rest of the way, he more than surpassed the investments fantasy owners put into him at the start.