The San Francisco Giants entered the All Star Break as the best team in baseball. With a 57-33 record, the team kept winning games, even without Hunter Pence, Joe Panik and Matt Duffy. With three weeks before the trade deadline, the trade rumors and discussions by many Giants fans simply focused on San Francisco in need of bullpen upgrades.
Things have changed since the All Star Break. San Francisco is 2-9 since the break with series losses against the sub.500 Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, and most recently, the Cincinnati Reds. Across 11 games, the Giants have averaged just 3.6 runs per game and their pitchers have allowed 24 home runs across 11 games, including eight home runs allowed in the three-game series against Cincinnati.
Now the Giants hold just a 2.5-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers, and with the trade deadline less than a week away, suddenly San Francisco needs to make dramatic improvements at the trade deadline.
Many of the rumors have circled around the Giants looking at Jay Bruce and Andrew Cashner. Bruce would provide San Francisco with a powerful bat in the lineup and needed insurance in the outfield given Hunter Pence's slower than expected return from a torn hamstring. Cashner would give the Giants a more stable fifth starter and allow the Giants to pull Matt Cain, who hasn't showed he can turn in quality innings to give the Giants a chance to win.
San Francisco needs Cashner and Bruce, in addition to bullpen hope, so it can remain contenders in the National League after the Chicago Cubs acquired phenom closer Aroldis Chapman.
But that's the exact type of thinking that can cripple a franchise. Reactionary trades from a short sample of games, leads you to be taken advantage of by other general managers. In a trade market where Lucas Harrell, a 31-year-old journeyman who is a starting pitcher for only the most desperate teams, and middle reliever Dario Alvarez cost the 20th rated prospect in the Texas Rangers system, who arguably have one of the two deepest, richest systems in all of baseball. Texas gave up a 21-year-old high upside bat in Travis Demeritte, who had 25 home runs this season and projects as a nice every day player if he can improve his contact rate.
Cashner is going to cost teams more than that, much more. While his FIP (4.94) was much higher than Harrell's (3.68), Cashner has a higher K/9 (7.60 to 6.44) and has made 16 starts to Harrell's five this season. Cashner offers more reliability as a fifth starter than Harrell, much more. He can give you five-to-six solid innings more times than not and he won't hurt you as much as your current options might. Despite the injury risks Cashner has, the fact that some teams view him as a long reliever, and that he is a free agent who could depart in free agency, San Diego will land at least one top-10 prospect from a team's farm system, if not two.
The Giants have a strong track record of developing young talent, but their farm system is still below average in terms of premium talent and top depth. At the start of the season, San Francisco had the 25th-rated farm system by MILB.com, Baseball Prospectus and 20th overall by Minor League Ball. A player like Demeritte would have likely been a top-15 rated prospect in the Giants' organization this season and even higher after a mid-season update.
In order to land Cashner, San Francisco would likely have to part with someone along the lines of an Adalberto Mejia, Lucius Fox or Sam Coonrod. The prices are insane, like the types of real life prices you see at gas stations in the middle of nowhere when they charge you $1 more than what it typically should cost. They know you are in a bad spot and need that help, so they are going to take advantage of your circumstances and you'll leave having overpaid for a weak, diluted solution.
Cashner isn't worth that, but people reacting to an 11-game skid would jump on that because it's a "move" and people have a tendency to believe that just making a move means you got better. It's the reason why some contenders get slammed by fan bases and sometimes the media for being quiet at the trade deadline.
San Francisco does have a problem in the fifth starter spot. Cain not only has the injury concerns with just 39 combined starts over the last three seasons, but a 5.34 FIP, -0.1 WAR and a 1.80 HR/9. The Giants should explore other options, but not on the trade market. Recent trades have shown its a sellers' market and the surge charges in late July are at their highest points.
But they don't have to overpay, in fact they don't have to give up anything at all. San Francisco has Ty Blach, Clayton Blackburn and Tyler Beede who they could turn to. Neither of the three have pitched in the majors, Beede hasn't even pitched in Triple-A although he should be up in the near future, but they give you different options to try. If they don't work, then you settle for Cain as your fifth starter. Often the results might be bad, but he can also turn in a stretch of games where he gives you quality innings.
But an overpay for Cashner isn't even the worst-case scenario for the Giants this trade season. The hottest talked about name is Bruce, who went from an outfielder Cincinnati tried to get rid of all offseason to one of the hottest trade commodities this year.
From a fantasy outlook on Bruce, people jump all over him as the perfect solution to San Francisco's apparent "problem". After all, he is in the midst of a career season with a .271 batting average, 25 home runs and 79 RBIs. The 29-year-old right fielder is on pace to shatter his career-high in home runs and RBIs, so naturally he would be the perfect piece for San Francisco. Especially after his four-homer series at AT&T Park, the fans and writers speculation of a Bruce trade just continued to climb.
Of course, you ignore certain factors when you only look at Bruce's home run and RBI totals from this season. Things like defense, track record and of course cost have to come into play, but are being ignored. You first have to factor in cost, which is going to be excessive.
Last season, the Giants acquired Mike Leake from the Reds. Leake was an impending free agent and had a respectable, but not great, 3.56 ERA in 21 starts for Cincinnati but his track record reflected more of a pitcher with a 3.7-plus ERA. Still, he cost San Francisco their No.1 rated prospect at the time in Keury Mella and Adam Duvall, who had a plus-power bat but had no future with the Giants with questions about what position he could play.
A player like Bruce is going to cost the Giants more, much more. Likely along the lines of their top prospect Tyler Beede, Chris Shaw and Joan Gregorio. A thin farm system can't afford to lose those three pieces and with most of their top-10 prospects made up of pitchers and vacancies in their rotation coming in the near future when Jake Peavy and Cain leave, they need to have options ready.
But even if the price was slightly lower or the Giants had more depth and talent in their farm system, it would still be a bad move to acquire Bruce. It means buying into a sudden career year after two years of severely underperforming. In 2014, Bruce struck out in 27.3 percent of his at bats, which wouldn't be as significant of a problem if his wRC+ below 80, his on-base percentage below .290 and he had a - 0.9 WAR. Things didn't get much better for him in 2015 as his wRC+ was below 100, struck out in 22 percent of his at bats and only had a .294 OBP.
Suddenly, everyone has bought in to this idea that Bruce is a 35-plus home run, .320-plus OBP player. But even if you truly believe he can offer that type of production year after year, he still is a major negative defensively in the outfield. Over the past two seasons, Bruce has a -7 defensive runs saved (DRS) in right field, his outfield arm runs (ARM) is -1.7 and his defensive runs above average (DEF) is -27.5, the second-worst mark in baseball. His range and arm won't get better with age, an even greater decline will come in his 30's. Despite the offensive numbers he has put up, he still has only a 0.8 WAR, which is the fourth-lowest amongst all qualified right fielders.
When Pence returns, people would just say you can just shift Bruce over to left field, but will still remain a liability in left field. He's rated worse defensively than Angel Pagan, who has a higher WAR (1.4) than Bruce. Pagan isn't exactly the symbol of reliable defense and range in left field, but he isn't any worse than Bruce.
Fans love the long ball, it's easy to understand why as it is one of the most exciting moments in a game and players who can hit a lot of home runs are fan favorites. But other factors make the difference in determining how far you make it in the postseason.
The Giants need to score more runs to stay competitive in games and there's three big additions they could make to do that. When Panik, Pence and Duffy are finished with their rehab assignments and healthy, activate them off the disabled list and plug them back in the lineup.
Pence crushed the ball before he tore his hamstring, his 138 wRC+ and .369 wOBA played a huge part in the Giants success. For people that love the long ball, Pence had seven home runs in 208 plate appearances and wasn't playing half his games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Yes, Pence's return from a hamstring injury has been slower than some expected, but San Francisco has gone with a much smarter approach and is giving him days off in between rehab appearances and going day-by-day so there are no setbacks when he does return.
With a lineup of Denard Span, Panik, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Pence and Duffy, the Giants will have a deep lineup that can get on base and drive in runs throughout. They'll also have tremendous depth on the bench with Mac Williamson, who owns a 137 wRC+ in 102 plate appearances, Jarrett Parker who holds a 122 wRC+ in 122 plate appearances and additional pieces like Ramiro Pena and Ehire Adrianza.
The Giants focus at the trade deadline should be to explore the relief pitcher market. If they can find a reliever like Will Smith, Luke Hochevar or Jeanmar Gomez, then pull the trigger. But the focus should be to head into August with a healthier lineup, a farm system that remains in tact and the depth on the bench and in Triple-A that this team has never had before. Slumps happen and San Francisco can bust out of its current skid just fine with what they have on the roster.