With the 2012 regular season coming to a close, we’re reflecting on 2012’s biggest surprises and disappointments to predict their performance or forecast for 2013.
We’re taking a division-by-division approach and given you the highs (2012 surprises) and lows (2012 disappointments) in each. We’ll look back at players’ predicted 2012 performance and determine those players that significantly over or undershot these predictions with their actual performance.
Next up, the American League Central Disappointments
Pitchers
Ubaldo Jiminez – Jimenez was Colorado Rockies star pitcher between 2009 and 2010, and as his velocity diminished in 2011, so did his star in the Mile High State. The Rockies unloaded the struggling Jimenez at the 2010 trading deadline, obtaining a surprising strong prospect haul from the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti saw Jimenez as the power complement to Justin Masterson atop a developing Indians rotation.
Prognosticators believed Jimenez’s struggles would find some respite outside of Colorado; Fangraphs pegged him with a 3.66 ERA and a respectable 8.48 K/9. No analyst expected a repeat of Jimenez’s 2010 season, but realizing his 2012 projections would make it a worthy trade for the Indians.
Instead, Jimenez has continued his 2011 struggles, increasingly worse as the 2012 season’s progressed. Going into his last 2012 start, he’s sporting a 5.55 ERA, he’s been worth just 0.1 wins above replacement (WAR) and his K/9 is down to 7.28. His advanced peripherals give no sign that he’s been unlucky, as he’s posting a league average BABIP and HR/FB%. I’d expect much the same from 2013 Jimenez; unless he makes some adjustments in light of his decreased velocity, he’s no longer a viable starting pitching option.
Justin Masterson – As mentioned above, the plan was to team the finesse pitching Masterson with the Jimenez’s power atop the Indians starting rotation. Masterson put together an impressive 2011 season, making good on his promise as he came up through the Boston Red Sox system before being traded to the Indians for Victor Martinez. He’d finished 2011 with a 3.27 ERA, and 4.7 WAR. He had some luck on his side, but there was plenty to like in his 2011 campaign.
Masterson pitched a masterful season opening game (8 INN, 2 H, 10 Ks) but has struggled since. He’ll end the 2012 season with a 5.03 ERA, a WHIP ballooned to 1.47, and a HR/9 that’s nearly doubled from 2011 (to 0.81). Further, all his advanced metrics are pointing the wrong direction; he’s walking more batters while his line drive and fly ball ratios are up. Deadly combinations for a finesse and control pitcher.
Masterson is still a young pitcher and 2012 represents the first season he’s really struggled. He’s had a bit of bad luck this year (.310 BABIP), but not enough to consider his 2012 season out of line. I expect some bounce-back in 2013, but I don’t think he’ll reach his 2011 totals again.
Honorable Mention: Francisco Liriano, Luke Hochevar
Batters
Eric Hosmer - Coming into the 2012 season, few batters had generated the expectations as the young Hosmer. A resurgent Royals offense sported Hosmer as the most promising 2012 figure. His 2011 rookie year featured 19 HRs, a 1.6 WAR. His outstanding 2012 spring training play had many analysts predicting the next big American League first baseman. Fangraphs predicted 25 HRs, 92 RBI and a 4.1 WAR – impressive numbers for a sophomore player.
Instead, 2012 has not been kind to Hosmer. He hasn’t hit any kind of groove through the season, with his highest weighted runs created (wRC) being 14.3 in any month (May). He’s posted just 14 HRs, a wRC of 89 (league average being 100) and his WAR is -0.9. It’s an altogether miserable season, not one predicted by anyone.
Hosmer’s a very young player (23) and has a very strong minor league record. His 2012 season has been plagued by bad luck (just a .255 BABIP) while his plate discipline has improved (o-swing% down to 33% from 39% in 2011). I think Hosmer’s 2012 represents a league adjusting to his power (he’s seeing just 30% fastballs) before he can make the requisite counter-adjustments. I have no doubt Hosmer will bounce back in 2013 and I see him posting 20+ HRs in the middle of a strong Royals lineup.
Honorable Mention: Brennan Boesch, Alex Avila, Lorenzo Cain