With the 2012 regular season coming to a close, we’re reflecting on 2012’s biggest surprises and disappointments and try to predict their performance or forecast for 2013.

We’re taking a division-by-division approach and given you the highs (2012 surprises) and lows (2012 disappointments) in each. We’ll start by looking back at players’ predicted 2012 performance and determine those players that significantly over or undershot these predictions with their actual performance.

American League East Disappointments

Pitchers

Ricky Romero – There’s no doubt Ricky is baseball's biggest 2012 disappointment. Ricky had logged three solid seasons to start his career and entered 2012 as the Blue Jays undisputed ace. His 2011 performance did include a good degree of luck – his 2011 BABIP of .242 was well below league average, but his durability, four pitches and reliance on a strong defensive unit were seen as mitigating factors from the inevitable regression to the mean. No one was prepared for Ricky’s 2012 results; he’s just recovered after losing 13 straight decisions, owns a 5.76 era and leads the AL in walks allowed with 133 (5.76 per nine innings). His poor performance astounds – various outlets have reported his velocity is fine, as are his pitching mechanics. The only plausible reason for the poor performance is his changeup velocity has ticket up and may not have the requisite speed difference for his fastball. He’s also sported an above average BABIP of .307. 2012 has been an unmitigated disaster for Ricky (and the Blue Jays); one can only expect improvement in 2013. I think fantasy owners will know better than to expect a repeat of his 2011 performance in 2013, but he can expected to levels similar to his 2009 or 2010 campaigns (mid 3.00 era, 3.5 BB /9, 7 SOs /9).

Jon Lester – Coming into the season, Lester was a similar comp to Romero. Roughly same age, number of seasons and with comparable contracts, Boston would rely on Lester as their undisputed ace. The Red Sox, similar to the Blue Jays and Lester, similar to Romero, are finishing up on disastrous 2012 campaigns. Marcel projections pegged Lester at a 3.46 ERA with a 2.76 K:BB ratio.  Instead, Lester’s sporting a 4.96 ERA and yet his K:BB ratio is 2.42, not far off preseason predictions. Digging into advanced metrics, it’s clear that Lester has received an inordinate amount of bad luck – his BABIP is .313 (up from .286 in 2011), yet his ground ball percentage (higher percentage indicating a high likelihood of balls in play not causing great damage) remains within one percentage point of his career average.  I’d take Lester as clear candidate to bounce back in 2013. He may not be able to repeat his 2008-2010 success, but his strong 2011 is well within reach in 2013.

2012 Honorable Mention:  James Shields (continues what seems to be good odd-numbered years with average even-numbered years) Matt Moore, Henderson Alvarez

Batters

2012 Disappointments

Brett Lawrie – I’m half hesitant to add Brett to this list as he entered 2012 with just 171 MLB ABs. Everyone recognized that his limited 2011 performance was over his head, considering his young age and rapid ascent though the minor leagues.  Nonetheless, his 2011 plate discipline was seen as an indicator for a strong 2012 showing. Bill James predicted an 18 HR, 77 run-scored and .264 line for the hyper-energetic Lawrie. Much like the Blue Jays season, 2012 has included performance that did not meet expectations, interspersed with injuries.

Lawrie’s missed 40 games due to injuries and has just 9 HRs, 68 runs scored and has a 271 AVG.  His runs scored have been helped by moving up to the leadoff spot in the lineup, but his plate discipline as diminished (3 Ks for every 1 BB). 2012 has been a trying year for Lawrie and the Jays, but there’s glimmers of hope for 2013: Lawrie’s line drive % has actually improved over his limited 2011 play (from 16% to 19%), while the pitches he sees are likely to improve with the recovery to health of the Jays middle of the order bats (Bautista, Arencibia, Rasmus). With another year to mature, and turning ground balls into fly balls, I expect improvements in 2013 Lawrie’s play, similar to his 2012 predictions.

Luke Scott – The Rays have long struggled with a right-handed-heavy lineup and thought Scott was the perfect tonic. Scott has long sported distinct platoon splits in his ABs against right and left handed pitchers. The Rays planed to leverage Scott LH bat against RH pitchers and prognosticators roundly predicted a 2012 bounce-back campaign, featuring a 1 wins above replacement (WAR) – significant, considering he was slotted for part-time play. Scott has continued the 2011 decline that led to his release by the Orioles; going into Wednesday night action, his play has been worth just 0.1 WAR. While his power numbers are fine (slugging percentage in line with predictions), his OBP has been considerably lower (just .279 for the season).

Scott is walking just 5.8% of his plate appearances, which is half his career norm. What does 2013 hold for Scott?  I’d mark Scott down for another year similar to 2012; he’s become a platoon-only, slow DH.  Any poor luck he’s seen is mitigated by his slow speed and worsening ability to take a walk.  I’d only consider him for my real-life or fantasy as a strict-platoon where other LHB options have been exhausted.

2012 Honorable Mentions: Carlos Pena, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texiera, Yunel Escobar