With the 2012 regular season coming to a close, we’re reflecting on 2012’s biggest surprises and disappointments to predict their performance or forecast for 2013.
We’re taking a division-by-division approach and given you the highs (2012 surprises) and lows (2012 disappointments) in each. We’ll look back at players’ predicted 2012 performance and determine those players that significantly over or undershot these predictions with their actual performance.
Next up, the American League Central Surprises. I could also call this the White Sox division. The team was not expected to have a strong 2012 campaign, but has rode the backs of key players’ 2012 resurgence to stay in contention until the season’s final week.
Pitchers
Jake Peavy - Peavy was disputably the best pitcher in baseball during a three year stretch while with the San Diego Padres (2005-2007). The Padres, fearful of the increasing inning burden and mounting injuries on Peavy’s shoulder and elbow, traded him to the White Sox in 2009. He’d not been able to maintain health for any given season going into 2012. When healthy, he had a productive 2011 season; in 111 INN, Peavy produced a 3.0 WAR on the backs of a 7.66 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. Bill James forecasted 123 INN with a 3.43 ERA. Across the board, prognosticators did not see Peavy healthy through ’12.
Peavy, like much of his White Sox teammates, far surpassed his 2012 projections. He’s pitched 211 INN, sporting a 3.37 ERA with 7.93 K/9. He’s amassed a 4.4 WAR, which brings him close to his elite years with San Diego. The White Sox have a team option on his 2013 contracts ($22M), which they are unlikely to pick-up, but will try to strike a deal with him outside the option year. Peavy has had a strong ’12 campaign despite pitching in a hitters’ park. However, I forecast some regression in ’13. There’s a lot of innings on his arm (rebuilt as it may be) and some of his advanced peripherals indicate some ’12 luck on his side; he’s got just a 36% GB% and has a well-below average .278 BABIP. Peavy will remain a solid pickup, but I don’t expect him to maintain his ace form in 2013.
Jose Quintana – Quintana was not on any radar at the start of 2012. He was released by the New York Yankees during the 2011 campaign and signed on with the White Sox as a minor league free agent. He had not pitched above AA ball coming into 2012 but was promoted to the White Sox and made their rotation in May. He pitched lights out through July, compiling a 1.53 ERA through June.
Quintana will end the season with 136 INN and a 3.76 ERA. Outstanding numbers for a rookie season; it’s clear that Chicago pitching coach Don Cooper has worked his magic with yet another pitching castoff. There are some warning signs in Quintana’s advanced peripherals: he’s sporting just a 5.35 K/9 (2012 league average is 7.1) and over 2; it translates to him striking out just 14.1% of batters faced. However, he’s generating 8.1% swinging strikes – what this means is that hitters are consistently being fooled by his pitches and thus he may yield a better K/9 in the future.
As Quintana further develops his arm and arsenal, I like him to continue his 2012 success. He won’t be the revelation first thought in early 2012, but he’s a decent pickup with the potential to improve his strikeouts, while minimizing damage from home runs through a great GB%.
Honorable Mention: Jeremy Guthrie (Royals stint), Chris Sale, Addison Reed
Batters
A.J. Pierzynski - Pierzynsky was a well-known entity coming into 2012, having completed 13 prior seasons. A fringey-catcher in fantasy leagues, he could generate average power for a catcher, but was long past his prime. Bill James pegged him for 9 HRs with a .305 wOBA for 2012.
Much to everyone’s surprise, 2012 stands out at Pierzynski’s career year. Going into Tuesday’s action, he’s amassed 27 HRs, a .349 wOBA and 3.4 WAR. He’s hitting a lot more fly balls than in the past; his GB/FB% has dropped from 1.77 in 2011 to 1.17, while those fly balls are going out of the park nearly 3X as often as in 2011 (6.5% to 18.6 HR/FB%). Pierzynski’s a free agent this offseason and with this banner year, will face more interest on the open market than he did in 2010.
Despite his impressive numbers, no one should expect Pierzynski’s discovered the fountain of youth. He’s amassed 6227 career ABs, most of them logged while behind the plate. In 2013, he’ll be 37 and should not be counted on delivering anything above his career norms of 8-9 HRs, 40-50 RBIs and a 2.0 WAR. It’s decent production for a catcher, but there’s just too much history to expect this vet to produce anything beyond his career average line.
Alex Rios - Rios has been a source of frustration for fans and organizations alike. He was a first round draft choice of the Blue Jays and developed as their starting RF, alternating his impressive tools with frustrating on-field results for four years. The Jays dumped Rios on the Chicago White Sox in 2009, after the White Sox placed a gutsy waiver wire claim on him, making them responsible for the $65M remaining on his contract.
Rios started the 2010 season with the White Sox in CF, and amassed a strong first half. Pundits heaped praise to GM
Kenny Williams for the risky Rios waiver pickup. However, he slumped in the 2010 second half. His poor performance worsened throughout 2011; he disputably one of the worst full season players in 2011, with a -0.8 WAR and 0.613 OPS. Fan Graphs did not think Rios could reverse his three year slump, predicting a .316 wOPA and a 1.6 WAR.
Defying all projections, Rios has been the White Sox MVP in a season that defined many expectations of the team. He’s put together an impressive year on all accounts; he has 25 HRs, 93 RBIs, a .364 wOBA, which is good for a 4.1 WAR on the season. He’s even reversed his fielding performance, as advanced statistics have him for a neutral 2012 performance (negative in 2010 and 2011). He’s put together this impressive line without a lot of BABIP luck (.323).
The same concerns that exist about Rios remain – he doesn’t walk much, strikes out too much. His underlying plate discipline numbers remain league average as well. Rios remains an enigma – producing wildly successful seasons (2007, 2008), interspersed with unexplainable poor seasons (2006, 2010, 2011). Rios is a good gamble pick in mid to late drafts, but his performance fluctuates too wildly for me to put too much stock in his improved 2012 season.
Honorable Mention: Austin Jackson, Josh Willingham, Adam Dunn