East Coasters beware: A tight divisional race is a brewing in the NL West for the 2013 MLB season.
The San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks all finished at .500 or better last year. The division standings in 2012 had the Giants winning the West, with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies rounding things out.
Each of the top three clubs will again produce quality records following the next grueling six-month campaign. Except this time around, we’d suggest anticipating 86-plus win totals for every squad in said trio. Cast aside any .500 marks, and any such five-, eight- or 13-game separations between those in first through third place.
In other words, San Francisco will not secure the division title with an eight-game cushion. It will battle the archrival Dodger Blue down to the very wire. And Arizona, for its part, will not find itself submerged underneath a double-digit margin. The Snakes will return as a viable threat a la 2011.
But can they overtake the two clubs ranked above them heading into 2013?
Colorado Rockies (64-98, 5th Place in 2012)
No other team performed as poorly on the mound as the Rockies did in 2012. They occupied the MLB cellar with a 5.22 ERA and may find themselves in a similar position in 2013, at the very least in the NL West.
No. 1 starter Jorge De La Rosa underwent Tommy John Surgery last year before posting a 9.28 ERA in three late-season starts. He and Jhoulys Chacin do not inspire much confidence at the top of the rotation. The same goes for nine-loss Drew Pomeranz and Jeff Francis 5.58 ERA from 2012. Closer Rafael Betancourt and his 31-save, 2.81-ERA may be the only pitcher who’ll bring hope to the Rockies’ staff.
Fortunately, Colorado batters will resemble their usual prolific selves at the plate. They scored the third-most runs in the NL (758) and belted the fifth-most home runs (166), despite not having leading slugger Troy Tulowitzki for most of the season. His return will only boost Carlos Gonzalez and the entire lineup’s overall production.
Yet, a complete void in quality pitching will keep the Rockies in the dregs of the division yet again.
Prediction
Colorado faces a long road ahead. This season will serve as another campaign geared towards future development.
69-93, 5th Place, NL West
San Diego Padres (76-86, 4th Place in 2012)
Manager Bud Black’s Padres generated most of their success off a dominant bullpen. San Diego’s ‘pen compiled a 3.24 ERA and .224 BAA, good for the NL’s fifth- and third-best marks in 2012. The likes of Huston Street, Luke Gregerson and Dale Thayer will also be back as leading performers this season
Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard will again anchor a decent starting contingent with their high-three ERAs and low double-digit win totals. Eric Stults (eight wins, 2.92 ERA in 14 starts) and 14-year veteran Freddy Garcia are the wild cards.
Regarding bats, third baseman Chase Headley remains the potent force in the Padres’ lineup. He led the club with a .286 BA, 31 HR and 115 RBI last season. He’ll receive much needed insurance with left fielder Carlos Quentin providing additional thump for a full season (or so the Padres hope).
San Diego will improve in 2013; just not enough for a considerable rise in the standings.
Prediction
The Padres are still missing a bat and frontline starters. Pitching will maintain their status as a respectable club that simply needs more.
80-82, 4th Place, NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76, 2nd Place in 2012)
Let’s face it: the Los Angeles Dodgers are absolutely stacked.
Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke comprise the preeminent one-two punch out of any starting rotation in Major League Baseball. Kenley Jansen, Brandon League and Ronald Belisario headline an NL top-four bullpen in 2012 that struck out nearly everything in its path.
Furthermore, a lineup consisting of Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier, among others, is a veritable all-star murderer’s row. Give them average, speed and power from top to bottom.
Yet, what exists on paper often is too good to be true. Injury tendencies, late-season fades and career declines will plague the lineup by season’s end. The back end of the rotation will also suffer behind an aging Josh Beckett and overachieving Aaron Harang from 2012.
Prediction
The Magic Johnson-led ownership group assembled an incredible club that will bring excitement and stability back to Chavez Ravine for years to come. Unfortunately, team-wide chemistry conducive for success when it matters most will fall by the wayside. One of the best teams to the naked eye won’t quite reach its potential on the diamond.
88-74, 3rd Place, NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81, 3rd Place in 2012)
Remember when the Diamondbacks won 94 games and emerged atop the NL West in 2011? Well, the 2013 model will more closely resemble its two-year predecessor than the one that notched just 81 wins last year.
Arixona, surprisingly enough, will not miss Justin Upton, the dynamic right fielder once viewed as the future of this franchise. The acquired Martin Prado will provide .300, all-around hitting ability at third base. Newcomer Cody Ross and opposite corner outfielder Jason Kubel will supply the necessary power.
Most of all, Aaron Hill and Paul Goldschmidt will make up one formidable batting duo from the right side of the infield. Both offer huge-power, high-average production with equally high on-base percentage. Goldschmidt, in particular, will enjoy a breakout campaign in just his third MLB season.
The Diamondbacks will also have the most complete rotation outside of San Francisco. Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, rising phenom Wade Miley and Brandon McCarthy are as solid as it gets. J.J. Putz, David Hernandez and Brad Ziegler are all sub-three ERA relievers who can close out games, to boot.
Prediction
No-nonsense manager Kirk Gibson will lead Arizona to the 90-win plateau. He’ll guide one of the most consistently strong teams in 2013—enough to overtake the Dodgers, but not quite enough for a first-place finish.
90-72, 2nd Place, NL West
San Francisco Giants (94-68, 1st Place in 2012)
The holders of the World Series crown arrive for the 2013 season largely intact from their Championship run. Leadoff spark Angel Pagan signed a four-year, $40 million deal and postseason masher Marco Scutaro is signed for three more years as the team’s ever-reliable No. 2 hitter.
Reigning NL MVP Buster Posey returns both to the batters box and behind the plate coming off a rehab-free offseason. He’ll be in optimal shape for his duties in handling the marquee pitching staff ranked No. 5 in the National League last year. Madison Bumgarner will lead Giants’ starters in most relevant categories, with Matt Cain anchoring the staff overall.
Three names to remember are Brandon Belt, Tim Lincecum and, of course, the Kung Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval. The rising first baseman will finally put it all together, while the Giants’ former ace will revert to form after a series of courageous playoff performances out of the bullpen.
Sandoval will piggyback off a dominant World Series run at the plate for a career-defining year. And manager Bruce Bochy will serve as the glue that holds it all together, notably with a Sergio Romo-led bullpen now locked in for the foreseeable future.
Prediction
San Francisco will once again thrive as a well-managed and chemistry-laden top-five pitching squad that simply produces just enough at the plate. It will not sit complacent as the reigning champs, and will slug more than an MLB-low 103 home runs while securing another NL West title.
92-70, 1st Place, NL West
Follow me on Twitter @jlevitt16