The MLB season may feel like it just got started, but one fifth of the season is already over, and the standings are starting to take their shape.  The question is, which of the teams off to a surprisingly good start are going to stay hot over the next month?  The easiest statistic to look at when deciding if a team is playing better than their record is their run differential.  Basically, if a team is winning games, but not scoring significantly more runs than their opponents, it means when they win games they only win by a small margin, but when they lose they are getting blown out.  These type of teams don’t typically sustain success over a full season, but tell that to the 2012 Baltimore Orioles, who finished the regular season scoring only seven more runs than they gave up all year, but won 93 games and beat the Texas Rangers in the wild-card round of the playoffs.  Here are some of the teams who may take a step back over the next month of the season.
 

Oakland Athletics

Oakland was the easiest choice for this list for me.  The A's finished the 2012 season extremely hot and took everyone by surprise, winning the AL West on the last day of the regular season, thanks to some power hitting and excellent young starting pitching.  So far they are 18-16 this season, but I still expect them to regress for several reasons.  Unfortunately, they just placed their third outfielder on the disabled list Wednesday in Josh Reddick who joins Coco Crisp and Chris Young.  The pitching rotation that was so good for Oakland last year has started off a lot more average than they looked last season.  Jarrod Parker specifically is struggling to maintain his success from his spectacular rookie season, starting off this season with a 1-5 record and a 7.34 ERA.  The most obvious reason for the Athletics’ potential backslide is the difference in their schedule in April and May.  13 of Oakland’s 18 wins this season have been against the struggling Mariners, Angels, and Astros, and they have two series against the Rangers in May, as well as a four game series against the Giants.  With their injuries and schedule coming up, Oakland will struggle to stay above the .500 mark by June.
 

Atlanta Braves

I’m not as worried about Atlanta keeping up their hot start as I am about Oakland, but I do have reason to believe they might have trouble staying as hot in May as they were in April.  Atlanta has started off 20-13 so far, but like Oakland; Atlanta’s hot start is at least partly due to a weak strength of schedule which included eight wins in their first nine games against the Phillies, Marlins, and Cubs.  The main reason I expect the Braves to slow down a little is because the makeup of their team is so naturally streaky.  Atlanta has a lineup of more high strikeout/high homerun hitters than I’ve ever seen put together.  These kinds of players are naturally going to have times where they seem to hit every ball out of the park, but also times where they strike out two to three times a game.  With a lineup of so many hitters like that, the Braves are bound to go through stretches where they are struggling to find any offense.  We have already seen some of that with a surprising series where they lost three out of four to the Pirates, scoring only seven runs over the whole series.
 

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City might be one of the teams many top analysts predicted to be a breakout team of 2013, but I’m still not sold that they can keep winning games like they have been so far.  The Royals have started off the season 17-12, and most of their success can be attributed to their starting pitching.  The pitching staff overall is currently third in all of baseball with a team ERA of 3.33, led mostly by their starters.  Two of the Royals starters, Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, are pitching like all-stars, both with sub 2.50 ERAs.  This is mostly the reason I see the Royals sliding a little in May.  To keep up this pace, you would have to believe Santana and Guthrie have just transformed from league average pitchers to all-stars, and I don’t think they are going to be able to keep that start going all season.  Guthrie is a 34-year old with a career record of 59-77 and ERA of 4.21, and Santana is younger and has better career numbers at 99-81 with a 4.28 ERA, but he has been about as streaky of a pitcher as possible over his career with the Angels.  With a month coming up of games against the Orioles, Rangers, Athletics, and Cardinals, we will see if the Royals are here to stay this year and if they are able to keep up with the Tigers in the AL Central.