The St. Louis Cardinals, roster packed with postseason stars of the past, find themselves in an uncomfortable position for Game 4: down two games to one and facing an early winter vacation.
The fate of their season could easily weigh on a decision that was made nearly one week ago: that to leave Shelby Miller, 0-4 with a 5.32 ERA against the Pirates this season, out of the NLDS rotation in favor of Michael Wacha. A mid-season callup, Wacha earned his starting spot thanks to a final regular season start for the ages: a near no-hitter against the Nationals. With only nine games started in his short career – albeit a solid seven-inning, two-hit outing against Pittsburgh in September – second-guessing will be abound if Wacha trips up early.
On the other side, the Bucs counter with Tommy John surgery survivor Charlie Morton, who returned to the team in June after nearly 12 months rehabbing from injury. Morton has struggled against the Cardinals, allowing 23 hits in 13.2 innings over three starts this season. The righty is a ground ball specialist who abandoned, in part, his high-90s heater in favor of a two-seamer with greater sinking action. Pirates fans were treated to an 8-2 first half from Jeff Locke, who compiled a 2.15 ERA over that timespan, but regressed in the second half to the point where he was banished to the bullpen in September. Despite the fact that Morton is still a work in progress, on this date, he is truly the best starting option that Pittsburgh has.
With so many uncertainties in the starting matchup, both teams will be looking for big hits from big names, which has been the trend this short series. Matt Carpenter’s bat has been silenced through Games 1-3, and the Cards’ success depends on his ability to get on base. Carlos Beltran, the commensurate postseason performer, drove in all three of the Redbirds’ runs in Sunday’s loss, and is the hottest hitter on the team with an October track record. With the right-hander Morton on the mound, St. Louis will look to lefty Matt Adams at the bottom of the lineup for a power boost.
Former first-round pick and perennial disappointment Pedro Alvarez has shaken the “all-or-nothing” label this season and come up big in the NLDS. His power will be counted upon hitting behind Justin Morneau, who has a .308 batting average in the series thus far. MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen is the greatest catalyst on the team, scoring two runs and hitting a single and a double in Game 3, but if Russell Martin's knack for a clutch hit this series continues, his bat in the seventh spot becomes even more valuable.
Despite a blown save in today’s game, the combination of Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli in the late innings has been a proven force for the Pirates all season. The Cardinals, however, have hard-throwing youngster Trevor Rosenthal lurking at the back end of the bullpen, and a relief appearance from Miller – owner of an equally explosive fastball – is not out of the question.
For reasons not entirely known, home field advantage in the postseason is often a deciding factor in who wins ballgames. The Cardinals must come up victorious in front of a rough visiting crowd to force a fifth game, but winning tomorrow is equally crucial to the Pirates, who face a trip back to St. Louis if they can’t wrap the series up in four.