The motto of any Game Five in any five-game series is both high-school-guidance-counselor-cheesy, and undeniably true: Play for today, and plan for tomorrow. Unorthodox managerial moves necessary to a teams' chances at a victory on Wednesday could prove devastating against the well-rested Dodgers, who will face just one of the NL Central's top teams for the pennant.
Adam Wainwright and Gerrit Cole face off in Wednesday's NLDS matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates. In just his second season removed from Tommy John surgery, the 32-year-old Wainwright threw 241.2 innings in 2013, good for first in the league. Wainwright’s career success as a hard-throwing sinkerballer with serious strikeout stuff was augmented this season when his control became Maddux-esque for an unhuman 1.3 BB/9 ratio. In three starts against Pittsburgh this season, he has allowed 15 hits in 21.0 innings pitched, and in Game 1, he struck out nine over seven frames, surrendering only three hits and one run.
Game 5 will be the Cards’ second look at Cole, and they must solve the hard-throwing rookie if they plan to advance, something they couldn't do in Game 2. The first overall draft pick in 2011, Cole throws an upper-90s fastball but gets a lot of swings and misses on a hard slider that is effective against both lefties and righties. He allowed two hits against the Cardinals in his first appearance this series – a double to Carlos Beltran and a home run to Yadier Molina - and the two who seemingly figured the rookie out will look to continue in Game 5 while the rest of the lineup hopes a second look will lower the notorious first-time-facing-a-lineup advantage.
Leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter, the NL leader in runs scored and hits, has only one hit in 15 at-bats this series. If Wednesday is the day when his bat comes to life – and his season .318 average and .392 on-base percentage suggest he’s “due” – the hot-hitting Beltran and Molina will find themselves driving in more runs with their long drives.
For Pittsburgh, Pedro Alvarez has been their NLDS MVP, taking Wainwright deep in Game 1 and breaking up a near no-no by Michael Wacha in Game 4 with a long drive. Outside of El Toro, the middle of the Pirates’ lineup has hit well this series, but like their opponents, their chances at scoring will improve with help from Starling Marte and Neil Walker in the leadoff and number-two spots.
Wednesday’s showdown will be managed meticulously by Clint Hurdle and Mike Matheny. How tight of a leash the two starting pitchers will be kept on, how willing to use an A.J. Burnett or a Shelby Miller in relief, and how quickly an offensive superstar is replaced in favor of a defensive whiz or speedster in the late innings could easily decide who moves on to face the Dodgers. Count on this: Everybody on the 25-man roster is available - they just haven't told you that.