As the Major League Baseball’s offseason enters January, most significant player transactions are complete and rosters largely settled for the 2013 season. Through January, we’ll feature the contenders in both the National and American Leagues, assessing their offseason efforts to address their 2013 roster needs. We’ll look back at how each team’s 2012 season ended with an eye on the updates and upgrades required to compete in 2013, how they’ve fared through the offseason and what the team looks like as we approach spring training.
We’re looking at the National League, with today’s focus being the 2012 Central Division winners, Cincinnati Reds.
Reds' 2012 Offseason Requirements
the Cincinnati Reds finished the 2012 regular season as one of baseball’s most balanced clubs. The Reds finished 2012 with a 3.34 team ERA (3rd best in the National League) and a .726 team OPS (6th best in the NL), and entered the National League Division Series as favorites against the San Francisco Giants. After taking two games to one lead, the Reds lost the final two games against the eventual World Champion' Giants.
Despite the disappointing finish, the Reds entered the 2012 offseason with few glaring holes to be addressed. With outstanding pitching and core positional players (Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce) contractually secure, general manager Walt Jocketty would be left to seek upgrades rather than make any real offseason overhaul.
The most pressing offseason question facing Jocketty and manager Dusty Baker was to define a 2013 role for flame throwing pitcher Aroldis Chapman. Chapman started the 2012 season as the Reds’ shut-down reliever, to be deployed in any late inning, high-leverage situation. Shaun Marshall’s immediate failings in the closer role forced Baker to affix Chapman as the closer, a role he excelled in. Chapman’s 2012 ranks as one of the greatest reliever season of all time, as he struck out 15.3 per 9 innings, posted a 1.55 FIP and delivered 3.3 WAR in just 71 innings. Chapman stands as one of baseball’s most effective pitching weapons, but the open question was whether his filthy stuff was best utilized as a closer, high-leverage reliever or as a starter in 2013.
Related to the Chapman question was the pending free agency of co-reliever Jonathan Broxton. Broxton came to the Reds in a mid-season trade from the Kansas City Royals as posted strong swing and miss rates 6.98 K/9 for the season. He’s not the dominant closer he was during his early-career stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but his bolt to free agency, coupled with Chapman, would potentially leave a significant gap in the Reds’ dominant bullpen.
Offseason Transaction Recap
Upon the off-season’s start, Jocketty and Baker decisively announced the Chapman would be transitioned to the rotation for 2013. The transition should be considered a smart one – increasing Chapman’s use from 70 innings/year to 180-200 represents the optimal use of a high-value asset. As Chapman has managed to use the short-duration nature of his bullpen stints to his advantage (high effort, maximum velocity in short bursts), one should not expect Chapman’s same level of peripheral performance in 2013 (no starter strikes out 15 batters per nine innings), but he only needs to pitch to a level similar to pr above Jake Peavy or Ryan Dempster circa-2012 in order to provide greater value to the Reds than he did with his masterful 2012 bullpen performance.
Recognizing the Chapman’s transition to the rotation would leave a void in the bullpen, Jocketty resigned free agent Broxton to a three year, $21M contract to be the Reds’ closer. The deal includes a club option for a fourth season. The move smacks of an overpay – the Broxton signing came days after the cash-rich Dodgers signed reliever Brandon League to a similar three year, $22.5M deal. General rule of thumb is that free agent relievers signed to deals early in the offseason are inked to a higher AAV than similar relievers signed later in the offseason. Broxton’s not a star reliever at this point in his career: his reconstructed elbow has reduced his fastball velocity (97 PMH in 2009, down to 94 MPH in 2012) and that’s dragged his SO/9 ratio (13.6 SO/9 innings in 2009, down to 6.98 / 9 inning in 2012). Broxton’s also generated less swing and misses with his slider (10% swinging strikes in 2012, career average swinging strikes generated is 20%). In short, the Reds are banking on a post-surgery reliever in his late 20s to regain lost velocity on his two primary pitches. Something tells me Broxton will not live through his contract as the Reds closer.
In November, Jocketty resigned free agent outfielder Ryan Ludwick to a two year, $15M contract. Ludwick resurrected his near-dead career with the Reds in 2012, producing 2.8 WAR on the backs of a .373 OBA. I wouldn’t expect a similar season from Ludwick in 2013, but he’s a decent bet for 20 HRs in left field. It’s a fair contract for the left fielder.
n December, the Reds participated in a blockbuster three-way trade with the Cleveland Indians and Arizona Diamondbacks. In the trade, the Reds parted with starting centerfielder Drew Stubbs and defence-first shortstop prospect Didi Gregorius in return for Indians outfielder Shin Soo Choo and $3.5M towards Choo’s 2012 salary. The surprise trade is a clear effort by Jocketty to address a centerfield position that did not produce offense in 2012. Stubbs, 28, produced a lowly .271 wOBA in 2012 and has regressed in all offensive categories over the past three seasons. While he’s still young enough (and provides solid defence) to turn his career around, it was clear that his level of production would not suffice for a 2013 contender such as the Reds. By flipping Stubbs to the Indians for Choo, the Reds gained an outstanding, two-way player well-suited to the top of the Reds lineup.
In 2012, Choo produced a .359 wOBA and accumulated 2.6 WAR. By leaving Cleveland for Cincinnati, he’ll be playing in a much better hitters’ environment and can easily be expected to replicated his 2012 season before he hits free agency next offseason. Jocketty is taking a risk that Choo can seamlessly move from right to center field, as he’s only played 83 innings in center. He’s an outstanding athlete and should be able to make the transition with little adjustment.
While the trade means the Reds will likely lose Choo in a year’s time, they’ve transitioned prospect Billy Hamilton (a whopping 155 stolen bases in 2012) from short stop to play center field in AAA Indianapolis in 2013. Assuming Hamilton continues his development, expect him to replace Choo next offseason.
2012 Offseason Report Card and Look Forward to 2013
Jocketty’s done a masterful job building a well-balanced Reds club over the past three years. For years, Cincinnati has struggled to assemble a pitching staff that equals their strong offense; he’s not built a lineup and rotation that are equally impressive. His 2012 offseason moves reflect a club that is primed to repeat 2013 as NL Central favorites – a club with few weaknesses to address. His trade for Choo appropriately addressed one position that could easily be upgraded, while the Reds’ moving Hamilton to center field provides the club a long-term answer at the position. Further, the club could afford to include Gregorius in the trade, as current shortstop Zack Kozart offers a similar glove-first profile.
The signing of Broxton surely represents an overpay for a non-elite reliever. One could reasonably argue that a club at the Reds’ position on the marginal win curve can afford to overpay to ensure their continued success. I’ll give them that point, but don’t expect Broxton to be the closer in two years time.
I’ll score the Reds a B+ for their offseason moves. This is a well-oiled club ready for success in 2013.