~~Carlos Gomez had an incredible season in 2013 which put him firmly into the top 25 on most draft boards. Is this really where he belongs? Can he sustain that level of production? What should be expected of Gomez in 2014? Will the full season presence of Ryan Braun effect Gomez in a positive way?

After a breakout season like Gomez had in 2013 there are many questions that arise. With his average draft position jumping up into the top 25, what kind of production will he need to support that high of a draft pick? Is there any room for regress with drafting him in the top 25?

Breaking Down Carlos Gomez’s “Breakout”

Career Averages (6 Full Seasons)   128Games   .311BABIP   .255AVG    .303OBP   16HR   60R   43RBI   26SB

2012 Statistics     137Games   415AB   .296BABIP   .260AVG   .305OBP   19HR   72R   52RBI   37SB

2013 Statistics     147Games   536AB   .344BABIP   .284AVG   .338OBP   24HR    80R    73RBI    40SB

The Worrisome Statistics

Entering the 2013 season fantasy players were drafting Gomez around picks 100 to 120 based off his production from 2012. The only major difference between his career and 2012 lines and his 2013 output is his batting average. As you can see in his line, Gomez batting average of balls batted in play (BABIP) leaped to an above average .344, which will be difficult to sustain.

If Gomez average does regress back toward his career numbers, we are looking at a .260 to .270 hitter at most. With a drop in batting average and a career 5.3% walk rate, Gomez on base percentage will also fall back toward his career average of .303, which is just league average. If Gomez isn’t on base he can’t steal either and his steals are what make him a top flight fantasy outfielder.

It should also be noted that Gomez topped 145 games played in 2013 for the first time since 2008 when he played for the Twins. It’s just about impossible to predict or quantity injuries or injury risk but it should be factored into your value on him when drafting.

The Encouraging Statistics

After the Ryan Braun suspension in July and Aramis Ramirez missing most of July and part of August, Gomez numbers took a slide. In 58 second half games Gomez was only able to post a .265 batting average and took a big hit in runs scored and runs batted in.

With Braun returning to the lineup and Ramirez presumably at full health, Gomez is likely to slot into the sixth or seventh hole in the batting order. This is where Gomez was slotted early in 2013 when he posted great April and May outputs. Though it isn’t the greatest position for his runs scored in should provide him with plenty of at bats with runners in scoring position, aiding his runs batted in numbers. Gomez thrived in high leverage situations, posting a filthy .340 batting average.

Analysis

Taking this statistical analysis into consideration, I find it difficult to sponsor growth in Gomez’s game for the 2014 season as it shows that some of his peripheral statistics, such as batting average, will be hard to sustain moving forward. With that said I can only predict a slight decrease in batting average, on base percentage, runs scored and stolen bases.

The power however is here to stay especially since he will be playing half his games at hitter friendly Miller Park where he racked up 15 of his 24 2013 homeruns. While Gomez will presumably be batting behind Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Jonathan Lucroy, his runs batted in totals should flourish given they stay healthy.

2014 Projections

Carlos Gomez      Pick #25   8th Outfielder
Fantasy Pros         559AB    .262AVG   .311OBP   22HR   79R    68RBI    35SB
My Projection        525AB   .268AVG   .318OBP    20HR    67R    85RBI    29SB  

Comparisons

Alex Rios    Pick #35   15th Outfielder
Fantasy Pros  582AB     .274AVG     .311OBP     17HR     74R      75RBI      28SB
My Projection  610AB     .269AVG     .315OBP     16HR     68R      80RBI      22SB

Jason Heyward    Pick #77     22nd Outfielder
Fantasy Pros               547AB      .267AVG    .347OBP      23HR       91R      73RBI      11SB
My Projection  575AB      .260AVG    .330OBP      20HR      102R     61RBI      17SB

 
Conclusion

Although Alex Rios and Jason Heyward don’t provide exactly statistical comparisons to Carlos Gomez, they are quite similar. With Heyward more so than Rios, you could have Gomez caliber production and can find it later in the draft.

At the end of the day, outfield is plentiful and spending a late second or third round pick on Carlos Gomez just doesn’t seem like the best move to me. In those rounds I would focus more on filling a position with thinner depth such as second base with Jason Kipnis or Dustin Pedroia, shortstop with Ian Desmond, or perhaps if you missed a first baseman earlier Freddie Freeman.

Written by @WaiverWarrior