Glance at the 2013 NL West division standings and you’ll notice two peculiar things. 1. The first-place Dodgers won the division by the largest margin (11.0 games) of any division champion in baseball, and 2. The difference in winning percentages between first and last place was the smallest.
Optimism has a tendency to run wild in the offseason as the tallies of acquisitions and drops grow during the Winter Meetings. Could one big offseason signing be the difference between cellar dweller and contender in a division where parity has been the name of the game? If this is the case, which GMs have done the smartest dealing to tip the odds in their favor? Here’s an early breakdown of the way the standings might look in 2014, based on trades and free agent signings of this winter.
5. San Diego Padres
San Diego has had a rough go of it recently, missing the playoffs in every season since 2006 and finishing above .500 in only two of the past seven seasons. In an obvious rebuilding phase, the Padres did make a few moves in the offseason that should give fans a glimmer of positivity.
Joaquin Benoit and the team agreed to a two-year deal earlier this week, with Benoit likely to serve as the setup man for closer Huston Street. Now 36, the righty has been one of the best relievers in the game for the past four seasons, compiling a 2.95 ERA and 10.2 K/9 ratio in this time period. His acquisition should offset the loss of Luke Gregerson, dealt to Oakland for outfielder Seth Smith.
Josh Johnson has long had the talent to be an ace, but made over 30 starts only once in his eight-year big league career.
The Padres took a calculated risk signing Johnson to a one-year contract with incentives, and the team hopes he can find the health and consistency he enjoyed in 2009.
Smith was the lone addition to San Diego’s offense, coming over from the Athletics in the Gregerson deal. Utilized as a platoon player in Bob Melvin’s lineup, Smith possesses good left-handed power and can be a solid pinch hitter.
2013 was not kind to young catcher Yasmani Grandal, who was suspended for performance-enhancing drug use and then suffered damage to his ACL and MCL in a home plate collision, though the former top prospect will be interesting to watch over the course of a full season.
Unfortunately for Padres fans, even the greatest setup man in the game does not a first-place franchise make. San Diego’s success in 2014 should be measured by the progress of their young players, who are the team’s best chance for crawling out of the basement.
4. Colorado Rockies
Despite two straight last-place finishes in the division, it appears that franchise players Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are staying put in Colorado. While the team was, perhaps, more active at the Winter Meetings than their division rivals, they’ll need Tulo and CarGo to be healthy for a full season if they want to climb the standings in 2014.
Michael Cuddyer is in line for a referral bonus after bringing his buddy Justin Morneau to Colorado on a two-year deal. Following a years-long ordeal with lingering concussion symptoms, Morneau is not the .320 hitter with 30+ home run pop he was when he won the MVP, but his numbers are likely to love Coors Field as the 32-year-old replaces Todd Helton, who retired at the end of the season.
Colorado dealt pitching prospect Drew Pomeranz to the Oakland Athletics for left-handed starter Brett Anderson, who is still just 25 but has dealt with major injury in each of the past four seasons.
GM Dan O’Dowd was shopping outfielder Dexter Fowler for some time before reaching an agreement with the Houston Astros, who sent back-end-of-the-rotation starter Jordan Lyles and backup outfielder Brandon Barnes in return.
It pays to be a left-handed reliever in 2013, as Boone Logan can attest after signing a three-year deal to pitch in the thin air.
The Rockies’ offseason moves seem optimistic at best, considering Morneau and Anderson’s perennial health concerns. The truth remains: Coors Field has yielded very little pitching success since its opening, and Tulowitzki and Gonzalez’s consistent presence in the lineup are the Rockies’ only hope of overcoming the disadvantage of their home field.
3. San Francisco Giants
Very little seemed to go right for the Giants this season, coming off a World Series victory. Tim Lincecum’s dip in velocity and loss of command were exposed, Matt Cain became inexplicably ineffective, and the entire lineup - with the exception, perhaps, of Hunter Pence - was uncharacteristically streaky.
Pitching has been San Francisco’s strength for years, and one of the team’s first moves was to re-up Lincecum for two seasons, though fans have to wonder what the team’s future plans are for “The Freak.” Lost late last season to a gruesome ankle injury, the Giants snatched up sinkerballer Tim Hudson, who can still dominate a lineup at age 38. Ryan Vogelsong re-signed with the team on a one-year deal, and Javier Lopez, the best left-handed relief specialist on the free agent market, received three years to remain in black and orange.
The Giants hope they have an offensive catalyst in Michael Morse, signed to a one-year deal after a rough 2013 season split between Seattle and Baltimore. His 2011 in Washington (.303 BA, 35 HR, 95 RBI) gave analysts and fans high hopes for his future, but injuries have held him back in the past two seasons.
San Francisco needs an offensive boost, and badly. Whether that comes from Morse, a resurgence from Pablo Sandoval in his contract year, or another offseason signing remains to be seen.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
The biggest trade of the Winter Meetings was the three-way deal that sent first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo to the Diamondbacks, and Arizona GM Kevin Towers was certainly generous in his return package for a guy who he believes can hit 40 home runs with the team. Parting ways with pitching prospect Tyler Skaggs and up-and-coming outfielder Adam Eaton was a difficult pill to swallow, but the Diamondbacks make a strong case for contention next season with Trumbo hitting behind MVP runner-up Paul Goldschmidt, a 3-4 combination that conjures up memories of Luis Gonzalez and Matt Williams.
On a lesser scale, the team re-signed corner infielder Eric Chavez, written off from 2008-2011 but resurgent with the Yankees in 2012 and the Diamondbacks last season. Kirk Gibson has indicated that while Chavez won’t be an everyday player, he will be a starter expected to improve on his nine home run, 44 RBI campaign.
Arizona’s rotation was given a boost in 2013 by Patrick Corbin, who was supposed to be a stopgap at the back-end of the starting staff while they awaited the debut of top prospects Skaggs and Randall Delgado. His breakout season gives the Diamondbacks a number-one starter, and the team hopes Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley and Brandon McCarthy can follow suit. Brad Ziegler re-signed with the team, and will likely see most action in a setup role to the newly-acquired Addison Reed The 24-year-old Reed recorded 40 saves with the White Sox this past season with a 3.79 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 71.1 innings.
Trumbo and Goldschmidt in the middle of the lineup are enough to scare away opposing pitching. It’s the D’Backs pitching, however, that will have to improve for the team to move up slots in the standings.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sometimes, the best trade is the one you don’t make, and the Dodgers are hoping this proves true heading into the 2014 season.
While rumors have circulated that the team has dangled any one of three outfielders not named Yasiel Puig as trade bait for top-tier starting pitching, the state of their lineup has remained stagnant, with the exception of Mark Ellis’ departure to St. Louis.
After exploring third base alternatives, the Dodgers decided to bring back slick-fielding clubhouse favorite Juan Uribe for two years.
Los Angeles could have a breakout candidate on hand in Matt Kemp, thought to be the face of the franchise when he signed a contract through 2019. Injured much of the past season, Kemp mustered up only a .270/.328/.395 slash line, but analysts aren’t quick to forget his 2011 season where he batted .324 with 39 home runs - not to mention the fact that he’s still only 29.
While David Price has yet to put on Dodger blue, Los Angeles did sign Dan Haren for one year, coming off a strong finish with the Nationals where he went 6-3 with a 3.14 ERA in his last 12 starts. And though shrewd second-half acquisition Ricky Nolasco signed with the Twins as a free agent earlier this week, rotation depth could come in the form of Chad Billingsley, expected to return in May following Tommy John surgery.
The Dodgers bullpen will have a similar look in 2014, bringing back Brian Wilson and J.P. Howell as setup options for closer Kenley Jansen. The loss of free agent reliever Ronald Belisario could be offset should Brandon League, the Opening Day closer who struggled through an incredibly disappointing 2013, bounce back.
As the old saying goes, sometimes it’s best to leave well enough alone. In the case of the Dodgers, the pieces that didn’t move may be the pieces that move the team forward.