Setting the Pace: Statistical Projections for Top MLB Hitters

By Vincent Frank on Sunday, May 26th 2013
Setting the Pace: Statistical Projections for Top MLB Hitters

Unlike other articles here on eDraft, this one is going to focus on what each team player in Major League Baseball is currently on pace to end the season at. 

There are some real surprises across the board, but one player figures to make the list in nearly every offensive category. As if it was even possible, Miguel Cabrera is one-upping his Triple Crown performance from a season ago. Meanwhile, some pitchers are on pace to hit the history books as well. 

Let's take a look at the league leaders in each major statistical category and where they are projected to finish the year at just two months into the season. 

Home Runs
Player Team  Number Pace
Chris Davis Baltimore 16 53
Miguel Cabrera Detroit 14 49
Justin Upton Atlanta 14 49
Robinson Cano New York (Y) 13 45
Edwin Encarnacion Toronto 13 43

 

There are currently only five players in baseball who are on pace to hit 40 homers. Six reached that total in 2011, while only two drove 40 out of the park in 2011. Needless to say, the "Steroid Era" in baseball might just be on the downswing right now. Those projected to hit 40 have all had success in the past hitting homers, so there isn't anything real fishy about it. Looking at you, Mr. Brady Anderson. On that note, no one is even close to breaking Barry Bonds' single-season homer record, which I am assuming is a good thing. 

 

RBI's
Player Team  Number Pace
Miguel Cabrera Detroit 57 201*
Chris Davis Baltimore 45 149
Prince Fielder Detroit 41 144
Brandon Phillips Cincinnati  42 142
Mark Reynolds Cleveland 40 135

 

* Indicates record-breaking pace

As you can see above, Cabrera is completing running away with the RBI race at this point in the season. In fact, he is currently on pace to break Hack Wilson's record of 191 set in 1930. even with a down-tick in production, which should be expected, Miggy could still break this long-standing record. 

Eight players are currently on pace to break the 130-RBI mark. To compare for a second, only one player broke that mark last season. Not too surprisingly, it was Miggy who did it. A total of 25 players are on pace to break the 100-RBI mark this season. Only 18 did last year. 

 

Stolen Bases
Player Team Number Pace
Everth Cabrera San Diego 18 62
Nate McLouth Baltimore 15 50
Jean Segura Milwaukee 14 49
Jacoby Ellsbury Boston  14 45
Juan Pierre Miami 13 44

 

In 2012, only four players hit the 40 stolen-base mark. Seven players are on pace to do it this season. If Coco Crisp remains healthy for the remainder of the year, he is a lock to hit that mark as well. Jean Segura is the one to watch here. He has blazing speed and possesses a .387 on-base mark, the best of any player listed above. If Juan Pierre reachs 40 stolen bases, it'd be the 10th time in his career he has done so, putting him in some elite company. Overall, it seems that the art of the stolen base has taken a back seat in recent seasons. It used to be that the league leader (thanks Rickey Henderson) would near the 80 stolen base mark. Those days surely have passed. 

 

Batting Average
Player Team Avg
Miguel Cabrera Detroit .388
Joey Votto Cincinnati .361
Jean Segura Milwaukee .348
James Loney Tampa Bay .357
Alex Gordon Kansas City .344

 

This isn't necessarily a pace thing. Instead, you are what you are when it comes to batting average. A total of 40 players are currently hitting over .300. In comparison, only 25 hit that mark last season. Miguel Cabrera is flirting with the .400 mark, but due to a lack of speed it seems unlikely he'll match a mark that has to be considered one of the rarest in the entire professional sports world. He is, however, a prime candidate to win a second consecutive American League Triple Crown. This would put him in the record books as one of the greatest hitters to ever put on a uniform. 

Meanwhile, Jean Segura finds himself on this list once again. What he is currently doing for the Milwaukee Brewers is astonoshing at such as young age. Just missing the cut is Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles, who is sporting a ridiculous .337/.427/.723 stat line. He could be in the chase for the American League MVP should Cabrera somehow struggle later in the season and Detroit misses out on the playoffs. That's an unlikely scenario at this point. 

 

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